KY-GOV (POS/RSLC-R): Beshear +4

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1682477590517350400

[ꙮ]

We’re still far out and this race is Tilt-D at best, but you do love to see Beshear leading in Republican internals.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

R internals aren't Trafalgar

[President Johnson]

Strong poll for Beshear, especially that it's a Republican internal and he's at 49%. He's certainly where you'd like to be as his campaign manager.

With that being said, didn't early Kentucky polls show better results for Democrats? Similar to Ohio. If he can hold this into October, it would be encouraging.

[Alben Barkley]

Now we know why they released that Beshear +10 poll from June so late, so they could immediately turn around and say Cameron is "closing the gap" with this one.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is probably the biggest margin possible for Beshear, but I still think he is favored. I could see him reaching 52% like in the other poll when the election actually happens.

[MT Treasurer]

Beshear would win narrowly if the election were held today, but it’s not. The problem for him is that he really doesn’t have much margin for error/a particularly large cushion to withstand a late shift to the GOP (as is common in KY), esp. if Cameron can successfully tie him to Biden and the national party.
 
He also won by way less than Laura Kelly won her first race, so he can’t afford any erosion in his coalition.