National Bellwether Streaks
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Author Topic: National Bellwether Streaks  (Read 485 times)
electionsguy259
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« on: July 21, 2023, 10:53:48 AM »
Decided to compile a list of states and counties that have held the longest bellwether streak in US presidential elections. Let me know if anything in this list is incorrect or if you have any more relevant information:

National Bellwether Streaks

Michigan/Pennsylvania/Wisconsin (2008-present)
Ohio (1964-2016)
Missouri (1960-2004)
Delaware (1952-1996)

County Bellwether Streaks

Clallam County, Washington (1980-present)
Valencia County, New Mexico (1952-2016)
New Castle County, Delaware (1936-1996)
Okanogan County, Washington (1904-1992)
Crook County, Oregon (1892-1988)
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #1 on: July 21, 2023, 01:46:31 PM »
Quote from: electionsguy259 on July 21, 2023, 10:53:48 AM
Decided to compile a list of states and counties that have held the longest bellwether streak in US presidential elections. Let me know if anything in this list is incorrect or if you have any more relevant information:

National Bellwether Streaks

Michigan/Pennsylvania/Wisconsin (2008-present)
Ohio (1964-2016)
Missouri (1960-2004)
Delaware (1952-1996)

County Bellwether Streaks

Clallam County, Washington (1980-present)
Valencia County, New Mexico (1952-2016)
New Castle County, Delaware (1936-1996)
Okanogan County, Washington (1904-1992)
Crook County, Oregon (1892-1988)

STATE: Nevada (1980-2012)

COUNTY: Vigo, Indiana (x-2016)
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Orser67
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« Reply #2 on: July 21, 2023, 03:49:53 PM »
New Mexico (1912-1972), also only had one miss from 1912 to 1996
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Republican Party Stalwart
Stalwart_Grantist
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« Reply #3 on: July 21, 2023, 04:30:59 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Smith on July 21, 2023, 01:46:31 PM
Quote from: electionsguy259 on July 21, 2023, 10:53:48 AM
Decided to compile a list of states and counties that have held the longest bellwether streak in US presidential elections. Let me know if anything in this list is incorrect or if you have any more relevant information:

National Bellwether Streaks

Michigan/Pennsylvania/Wisconsin (2008-present)
Ohio (1964-2016)
Missouri (1960-2004)
Delaware (1952-1996)

County Bellwether Streaks

Clallam County, Washington (1980-present)
Valencia County, New Mexico (1952-2016)
New Castle County, Delaware (1936-1996)
Okanogan County, Washington (1904-1992)
Crook County, Oregon (1892-1988)

STATE: Nevada (1980-2012)

COUNTY: Vigo, Indiana (x-2016)

Vigo County voted for the winner every time from 1956-2016, all but one time from 1912-2016, and all but two times from 1888-2016,

Vigo county, since the beginning of the current D-R 2-party system in 1854 and before 2020, only ever voted for the losing presidential candidate four times: in 1876, 1884, 1908, and 1952. Furthermore; in all four of those elections no candidate won over 50% of the county's vote; in three of those four elections no candidate won over 50% of the statewide vote and the statewide margin of victory was under 2% of the vote; and in one of those four elections (1876) the county voted for the candidate who not only won both the state and the nationwide popular vote, but also only lost the electoral college under incredibly controversial circumstances.
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electionsguy259
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« Reply #4 on: July 21, 2023, 08:15:30 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Smith on July 21, 2023, 01:46:31 PM
Quote from: electionsguy259 on July 21, 2023, 10:53:48 AM
Decided to compile a list of states and counties that have held the longest bellwether streak in US presidential elections. Let me know if anything in this list is incorrect or if you have any more relevant information:

National Bellwether Streaks

Michigan/Pennsylvania/Wisconsin (2008-present)
Ohio (1964-2016)
Missouri (1960-2004)
Delaware (1952-1996)

County Bellwether Streaks

Clallam County, Washington (1980-present)
Valencia County, New Mexico (1952-2016)
New Castle County, Delaware (1936-1996)
Okanogan County, Washington (1904-1992)
Crook County, Oregon (1892-1988)

STATE: Nevada (1980-2012)

COUNTY: Vigo, Indiana (x-2016)

Those were definitely bellwethers at one point, but they were never held the *longest streak* of being bellwethers.
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GMantis
Dessie Potter
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« Reply #5 on: August 16, 2023, 05:54:26 PM »
« Edited: August 21, 2023, 09:32:26 AM by GMantis »
Quote from: electionsguy259 on July 21, 2023, 10:53:48 AM
Decided to compile a list of states and counties that have held the longest bellwether streak in US presidential elections. Let me know if anything in this list is incorrect or if you have any more relevant information:

National Bellwether Streaks

Michigan/Pennsylvania/Wisconsin (2008-present)
Ohio (1964-2016)
Missouri (1960-2004)
Delaware (1952-1996)

County Bellwether Streaks

Clallam County, Washington (1980-present)
Valencia County, New Mexico (1952-2016)
New Castle County, Delaware (1936-1996)
Okanogan County, Washington (1904-1992)
Crook County, Oregon (1892-1988)

Bellwether streak with the same or higher length than the records already mentioned:

16. New Mexico and Nevada (1912-1972)
14. Maryland (1892-1944), Montana and Idaho (1904-1956), Illinois (1920-1972)
13. Missouri (1904-1952)
12. Ohio (1896-1940), Arizona (1912-1956), Minnesota (1920-1964)
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #6 on: August 20, 2023, 12:30:09 PM »
Quote from: GMantis on August 16, 2023, 05:54:26 PM
Quote from: electionsguy259 on July 21, 2023, 10:53:48 AM
Decided to compile a list of states and counties that have held the longest bellwether streak in US presidential elections. Let me know if anything in this list is incorrect or if you have any more relevant information:

National Bellwether Streaks

Michigan/Pennsylvania/Wisconsin (2008-present)
Ohio (1964-2016)
Missouri (1960-2004)
Delaware (1952-1996)

County Bellwether Streaks

Clallam County, Washington (1980-present)
Valencia County, New Mexico (1952-2016)
New Castle County, Delaware (1936-1996)
Okanogan County, Washington (1904-1992)
Crook County, Oregon (1892-1988)

Bellwether streak with the same or higher length than the records already mentioned:

16. New Mexico and Nevada (1912-1972)
14. Maryland (1892-1944), Montana and Idaho (1904-1956), Illinois and New Jersey (1920-1972)
13. Missouri (1904-1952)
12. Ohio (1896-1940), Arizona (1912-1956), Minnesota (1920-1964)

NJ didn't vote for Truman.
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GMantis
Dessie Potter
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« Reply #7 on: August 21, 2023, 09:32:44 AM »
Quote from: Mr. Smith on August 20, 2023, 12:30:09 PM
Quote from: GMantis on August 16, 2023, 05:54:26 PM
Quote from: electionsguy259 on July 21, 2023, 10:53:48 AM
Decided to compile a list of states and counties that have held the longest bellwether streak in US presidential elections. Let me know if anything in this list is incorrect or if you have any more relevant information:

National Bellwether Streaks

Michigan/Pennsylvania/Wisconsin (2008-present)
Ohio (1964-2016)
Missouri (1960-2004)
Delaware (1952-1996)

County Bellwether Streaks

Clallam County, Washington (1980-present)
Valencia County, New Mexico (1952-2016)
New Castle County, Delaware (1936-1996)
Okanogan County, Washington (1904-1992)
Crook County, Oregon (1892-1988)

Bellwether streak with the same or higher length than the records already mentioned:

16. New Mexico and Nevada (1912-1972)
14. Maryland (1892-1944), Montana and Idaho (1904-1956), Illinois and New Jersey (1920-1972)
13. Missouri (1904-1952)
12. Ohio (1896-1940), Arizona (1912-1956), Minnesota (1920-1964)

NJ didn't vote for Truman.
You're right, I've corrected it now.
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