I didn't realize the degree of the Sunbelt boom until I saw 2000-2006 figures

[memphis]

It really is a very strong trend. Of the 50 fastest growing (by percents) metro areas,  25, were in the South, 23 were in the west, 1 (Bentonville, AR/MO) straddles the South and Midwest, and just 1 (Sioux Falls, SD) is entirely in the Midwest. None are in the NE, where the fastest growing (York, PA) was 95th in the nation.

[Alcon]

York, PA is the fastest-growing NE metro area?  That's pathetic.  All I can find indicates that York and the surrounding towns are losing population.  What's growing - rural areas?

I really was amazed when I saw those numbers, too.

[muon2]

York, PA is the fastest-growing NE metro area?  That's pathetic.  All I can find indicates that York and the surrounding towns are losing population.  What's growing - rural areas?

I really was amazed when I saw those numbers, too.

York county is growing at about 1.3% per year. That is faster than the nation as a whole (1.0%) and much faster than the state (0.2%). The growth should add about 50K people this decade to York county.

[muon2]

It really is a very strong trend. Of the 50 fastest growing (by percents) metro areas,  25, were in the South, 23 were in the west, 1 (Bentonville, AR/MO) straddles the South and Midwest, and just 1 (Sioux Falls, SD) is entirely in the Midwest. None are in the NE, where the fastest growing (York, PA) was 95th in the nation.

The growth rates are pretty apparent in the apportionment trends by region as well. Traditional Sun Belt regions of the south and west except for the Delta South are growing more rapidly than the nation as a whole. Other areas are falling behind the national average.

[minionofmidas]

What's new? If anything, the trend is much weaker now than it was in the 50s to 80s.

[??????????]

York, PA is the fastest-growing NE metro area?  That's pathetic.  All I can find indicates that York and the surrounding towns are losing population.  What's growing - rural areas?

I really was amazed when I saw those numbers, too.

Actually their are lots of homes being built in York, PA. Mostly its' former residents of the Baltimore metro area who are commuting back to Baltimore from York. My step brother is one of them.

[Alcon]

York, PA is the fastest-growing NE metro area?  That's pathetic.  All I can find indicates that York and the surrounding towns are losing population.  What's growing - rural areas?

I really was amazed when I saw those numbers, too.

Actually their are lots of homes being built in York, PA. Mostly its' former residents of the Baltimore metro area who are commuting back to Baltimore from York. My step brother is one of them.

They can't be in the city area proper, though, because it's losing population.  I checked.

[jimrtex]

York, PA is the fastest-growing NE metro area?  That's pathetic.  All I can find indicates that York and the surrounding towns are losing population.  What's growing - rural areas?

I really was amazed when I saw those numbers, too.

Actually their are lots of homes being built in York, PA. Mostly its' former residents of the Baltimore metro area who are commuting back to Baltimore from York. My step brother is one of them.

They can't be in the city area proper, though, because it's losing population.  I checked.

The Census Bureau has estimates by township for Pennsylvania.  The high growth areas are mainly to the north of York city.  Some may be from Harrisburg which is just north of the northern tip of the county.  There are couple of areas to the south, Hopewell which is just above the state line, and Springfield which is on I-83.

[Alcon]

Thanks, Jim.  Didn't know there were township estimates - I thought they just did incorporated cities.  That would be an interesting statewide map to make!  Do you know if anyone has done a growth map by township for any state?

[jimrtex]

The Census Bureau does estimates county subdivisions (townships) in states where they are functioning government, at the same time they do city estimates (so they have 2005 estimates).

This includes all states in the Northeast and Midwest census regions, except North Dakota.

Unfortunately, there is not an option to do thematic maps for the estimate data on the Census Bureau site.  I simply displayed the data for York County, scanned for areas with significant growth (10%+) and then looked at the reference map.

Areas over 20% were East Manchester and Manchester (these are north of York), and Springfield (this is on I-83 south of York, and one township in from the state line), and Hallam, east of York.

[Tender Branson]

It seems the Census Bureau is underestimating the population growth (like in the 90s), especially in the South-West.

While the CA Census Bureau population was 36,5 Mio. in 2006, the CA Dept. of Finance showed it at 37,5 Mio.

For AZ the same: 6,1 vs. 6,3

NV: 2,5 vs. 2,6

There´s a major shift from the Northeast and Midwest to the South-East and South-West and North-West.

[jimrtex]

It seems the Census Bureau is underestimating the population growth (like in the 90s), especially in the South-West.

While the CA Census Bureau population was 36,5 Mio. in 2006, the CA Dept. of Finance showed it at 37,5 Mio.

For AZ the same: 6,1 vs. 6,3

NV: 2,5 vs. 2,6

There´s a major shift from the Northeast and Midwest to the South-East and South-West and North-West.

The CA Dept of Finance estimates the population of Arizona and Nevada?

[Tender Branson]

It seems the Census Bureau is underestimating the population growth (like in the 90s), especially in the South-West.

While the CA Census Bureau population was 36,5 Mio. in 2006, the CA Dept. of Finance showed it at 37,5 Mio.

For AZ the same: 6,1 vs. 6,3

NV: 2,5 vs. 2,6

There´s a major shift from the Northeast and Midwest to the South-East and South-West and North-West.

The CA Dept of Finance estimates the population of Arizona and Nevada?

Not really, NV and AZ have separate state agencies which provide estimates, which turned out to be better in 2000 than the Census Bureau Estimates:

http://www.workforce.az.gov/?PAGEID=67&SUBID=137

http://www.nsbdc.org/what/data_statistics/demographer/pubs/

[CARLHAYDEN]

It seems the Census Bureau is underestimating the population growth (like in the 90s), especially in the South-West.

While the CA Census Bureau population was 36,5 Mio. in 2006, the CA Dept. of Finance showed it at 37,5 Mio.

For AZ the same: 6,1 vs. 6,3

NV: 2,5 vs. 2,6

There´s a major shift from the Northeast and Midwest to the South-East and South-West and North-West.

The CA Dept of Finance estimates the population of Arizona and Nevada?

Not really, NV and AZ have separate state agencies which provide estimates, which turned out to be better in 2000 than the Census Bureau Estimates:

http://www.workforce.az.gov/?PAGEID=67&SUBID=137

http://www.nsbdc.org/what/data_statistics/demographer/pubs/

The Census Bureau has made some really lame estimates in the past. 

I remember how the estimates for the 1980 population versus the actual census were considerably off.

This came to my attention when I was working on my thesis about crime rates.

The FBI Uniform Crime Statistics used the estimates, and therefor had a significantly higher "rate" in Nevada than the actual census data indicated as Nevada's population kn 1980 was significantly greather than had been estimated.

[jimrtex]

It seems the Census Bureau is underestimating the population growth (like in the 90s), especially in the South-West.

While the CA Census Bureau population was 36,5 Mio. in 2006, the CA Dept. of Finance showed it at 37,5 Mio.

For AZ the same: 6,1 vs. 6,3

NV: 2,5 vs. 2,6

There´s a major shift from the Northeast and Midwest to the South-East and South-West and North-West.

It appears that the main difference in methodology between the states and the Census Bureau is that the states base their estimates on housing units multiplied by household size.  To the extent that counties and states keep track of housing units, primarily for taxation purposes, their method will be in error only due to changes in average household sizes.

The Census Bureau would have an almost impossible task of gathering such data on a consistent basis across the US.

The Census Bureau estimate changes based on births, deaths, and migration, both domestic and and international.

Estimates of migration are based on IRS filings.  To the extent that there are changes in percentage of persons filing, there will errors introduced.  States such as Nevada, Arizona, and California with large illegal immigrant population may be particularly susceptible to increases in non-filers.

Do tax filings in California track with their population estimates?