Will Hamtramck, MI vote for Trump in 2024?

[WalterWhite]

Data: https://hamtramck.us/unofficial-election-results-november-2020/

Hamtramck, MI voted for the Biden/Harris ticket by a landslide margin in 2020. However, as evident by its pride flag bans (which as unanimously approved by the city council), it is an extremely socially conservative community. With social issues (especially LGBT rights and abortion) becoming more discussed in politics, will this town vote for Trump in 2024, viewing the Democrats as betraying their socially conservative values? Or will this community remain Democratic, viewing the Republicans as opposed to their economic interests?

[WalterWhite]

Interestingly, this town stayed Democratic in 2022. It voted Gretchen Whitmer over Tudor Dixon by a large margin, and it also voted for the Democratic candidate for its House district by a large margin.

Source: https://hamtramck.us/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/ElectionSummaryReportRPT.pdf

Additionally, Trump's Muslim travel ban will not play well with this community. I think it stays solidly Democratic in 2024.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Obviously safe D although the margin will probably shrink.

[seskoog]

My guess is it stays D but the margin decreases quite a bit.

[Devils30]

Totally flipping red, an 85-13 Biden town is in full MAGA mode.

[Upper Canada Tory]

Isn't the Hamtramck pride flag ban a violation of the First Amendment?

Also, I don't think Muslim Americans will forget all the grievances they have with Trump just because of 'the gays', but who knows?

[Republican Party Stalwart]

Isn't the Hamtramck pride flag ban a violation of the First Amendment?

No, not even close. The "ban" is just a decision by the city government to prohibit itself from flying the flag on its own property (public schools, government offices, etc.), no different from decisions regarding Confederate battle flags in jurisdictions throughout the South in the last ten years. It doesn't ban the flag from being flown or brandished by individual citizens in these places (government workers and officials, elected and otherwise, can still voluntarily wear pins of the flag while at work or have the flags on their desks, etc.), it's just that the city government will not fly it on the city government's own flagpoles, nor will the city government require its own personnel to fly or brandish the flag (government workers and officials cannot legally be forced to wear pins of the flag at work or have the flag on their desks, etc.).

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

though by a paltry margin compared to the presidential race, it still voted for the abortion referendum 57-43. https://miboecfr.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/cfr/precinct_srch.cgi you can find town by town results for all the elections here.

It will swing right by a lot, but it won't be voting for Trump if it's voting for this too. This is one area where abortion will be less supported than Dems.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

No but it might have one of the largest republican swings in Michigan

[Duke of York]

no and i doubt it swings much either.

[Republican Party Stalwart]

Probably not. Considering that the Muslim vote nationwide swung to Trump in 2020 by 11 points, but the city of Hamtramck at large only swung to Trump by 3 points, and that Hamtramck still voted over 85% for Biden in 2020 despite all of the acceleratory pro-LGBT rhetoric on full display at that year's Democratic National Convention, it's unlikely that the city will swing far enough to have a margin in the single-digits, let alone far enough for the Republican nominee to win. Furthermore, because the Arab and Muslim populations of Hamtramck, Dearborn, and the Detroit metro are so longstanding and entrenched, dating back decades, they are effectively among the Democratic "machine demographics" in this country and have been since the 1960's (if not well before that), along with the Hispanos of northern New Mexico and Southern Colorado, the Japanese-Americans of Hawaii, the Amerindian populations of the Reservations, and Black ADOS nationwide. Because the Democratic Party of Michigan is such a fixture in the daily lives of the Arab and Muslim residents of the Detroit Metro, the third-generation Yemeni-, Syrian-, or Egyptian-American Sunni Muslim in Hamtramck or Dearborn has far more reason to keep voting straight-ticket "D" - in spite of the increasing preeminence of the LGBT culture war - and and has far more to lose by "becoming Republican" than does the First-generation Pakistani-American Sunni Muslim young family living in a White-majority, Republican-leaning Texas suburb, or does the Second-Generation secular nominal-Shia Muslim Iranian-American living in Brentwood or Westwood, Los Angeles.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Because the Democratic Party of Michigan is such a fixture in the daily lives of the Arab and Muslim residents of the Detroit Metro, the third-generation Yemeni-, Syrian-, or Egyptian-American Sunni Muslim in Hamtramck or Dearborn has far more reason to keep voting straight-ticket "D" - in spite of the increasing preeminence of the LGBT culture war - and and has far more to lose by "becoming Republican" than does the First-generation Pakistani-American Sunni Muslim young family living in a White-majority, Republican-leaning Texas suburb, or does the Second-Generation secular nominal-Shia Muslim Iranian-American living in Brentwood or Westwood, Los Angeles.

bronz4141/olawakandi-style TL;DR: the mostly (Yemeni and other Arab) White Muslims of Metro Detroit are too culturally D to flip, and the (South) Asian Muslims of Hamtramck won’t vote for a White Supremacist GOP even if they’re meh with pride overall and not cool with the “redefining gender” part of the trans liberation agenda.

In all seriousness this explains a lot of why AAPI voters in Texas seem surprisingly R per recent exit polls (e.g. TX-GOV 2022)

[Republican Party Stalwart]

Because the Democratic Party of Michigan is such a fixture in the daily lives of the Arab and Muslim residents of the Detroit Metro, the third-generation Yemeni-, Syrian-, or Egyptian-American Sunni Muslim in Hamtramck or Dearborn has far more reason to keep voting straight-ticket "D" - in spite of the increasing preeminence of the LGBT culture war - and and has far more to lose by "becoming Republican" than does the First-generation Pakistani-American Sunni Muslim young family living in a White-majority, Republican-leaning Texas suburb, or does the Second-Generation secular nominal-Shia Muslim Iranian-American living in Brentwood or Westwood, Los Angeles.

bronz4141/olawakandi-style TL;DR: the mostly (Yemeni and other Arab) White Muslims of Metro Detroit are too culturally D to flip, and the (South) Asian Muslims of Hamtramck won’t vote for a White Supremacist GOP even if they’re meh with pride overall and not cool with the “redefining gender” part of the trans liberation agenda.

Yes, the Muslim population of the United States is one of the most "liberal" Muslim populations in the entire World (although I imagine that Canada and/or multiple LatAm countries may rank similarly), due in large part both to the "melting pot" nature of the United States and especially to the longstanding presence of the Muslim and Greater-Middle-Eastern diaspora communities of Metro Detroit, Metro NYC, Greater LA, and the MN Twin Cities, most of whom pre-date 9/11 and many of whom pre-date the creation of the State of Israel and the subsequent polarization of that issue in American politics.

In all seriousness this explains a lot of why AAPI voters in Texas seem surprisingly R per recent exit polls (e.g. TX-GOV 2022)

To be fair, post-COVID exit poll data has been biased in favor of Republicans across the board, due to the polarization of how one thought/thinks about COVID - followed by the subsequent polarization in the aftermath of the 2020 election of what one thought/thinks about the integrity of mail-in voting in and of itself - and how that has impacted the demographics of mail-in voters as opposed to in-person voters.

[pbrower2a]

Trump is the Presidential nominee most hostile to Muslims. To Muslims he is Iblis (the name is a derivative of the Greek διάβολος (diabolos).

[Republican Party Stalwart]

Trump is the Presidential nominee most hostile to Muslims.

Yes; even though the "Trump Muslim Ban" is now functionally a dead issue, optimistically assuming that a majority of Muslim voters can possibly just forget about or "get over" it is still a very hard hurdle to jump over.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

No, despite Biden's best efforts.

[Bismarck]

Trump is just as much of a hackish supporter of Israel as Biden and cares less about the plight of the Gazans.

[Vosem]

Trump is the Presidential nominee most hostile to Muslims. To Muslims he is Iblis (the name is a derivative of the Greek διάβολος (diabolos).

I think we should prohibit comments that don't include the etymology of a foreign word from Atlas Forum from now on, because this is just absolutely perfect.