Predict the margin in each of the following states:

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Alaska: R+3
Iowa: R+10
Ohio: R+6
ME-2: R+4
Texas: R+2
Florida: R+6
North Carolina: D+1
Georgia: D+2
Arizona: D+3
Wisconsin: D+3
Pennsylvania: D+4
Nevada: D+5
Michigan: D+5
NE-02: D+13
MN: D+10
NH: D+8
ME-AL: D+11
VA: D+11
NM: D+9
CO: D+18
NJ: D+16
OR: D+17
IL: D+16
DE: D+15
WA: D+20

This is a Redban or OSR PRED, OSR still has his 22 PRED up that lol PRED Fetterman to lose with Shapiro

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

- Alaska: R+5
- Iowa: R+12
- Ohio R+6
- Maine's second congressional district: R+3
- Texas: R+2
- Florida: R+11
- North Carolina: D+1
- Georgia: D+3
- Arizona: D+4
- Wisconsin: D+2
- Pennsylvania: D+4
- Nevada: D+2
- Michigan: D+5
- Nebraska's second congressional district: D+10
- Minnesota: D+9
- New Hampshire: D+10
- Maine: D+13
- Virginia: D+11
- New Mexico: D+10
- Colorado: D+20
- New Jersey: D+17
- Oregon: D+18
- Illinois: D+17
- Delaware: D+20
- Washington state: D+20

When DeSantis loses the nomination and he will , there won't be much coattails do you know Obama won FL by 1 and OH by 3 free Sandy Biden can win both but it won't be landslide

[SaneDemocrat]

- Alaska: R+5
- Iowa: R+12
- Ohio R+6
- Maine's second congressional district: R+3
- Texas: R+2
- Florida: R+11
- North Carolina: D+1
- Georgia: D+3
- Arizona: D+4
- Wisconsin: D+2
- Pennsylvania: D+4
- Nevada: D+2
- Michigan: D+5
- Nebraska's second congressional district: D+10
- Minnesota: D+9
- New Hampshire: D+10
- Maine: D+13
- Virginia: D+11
- New Mexico: D+10
- Colorado: D+20
- New Jersey: D+17
- Oregon: D+18
- Illinois: D+17
- Delaware: D+20
- Washington state: D+20
[/quote
Other than Florida,great

[EastwoodS]

Alaska- R+10
Iowa- R+ 12
Ohio- R + 12
Maine's second congressional district (1) R+10
Texas (40) R +5
Florida (30) R+8
North Carolina R+3
Georgia- I really think this could be the closest state, either Biden +1 or Trump +0
Arizona- D + 3
Wisconsin D +3.
Pennsylvania D/R+0
Nevada R+ 0.
Michigan D +2
Nebraska's second congressional district D +10
Minnesota D +8
New Hampshire D +7
Maine (2 at-large EVs) D+7
Virginia D +8
New Mexico D +9
Colorado  D +15
New Jersey D + 14
Oregon D +18
Illinois D +11
Delaware D +15
Washington state D +25
Popular vote: D+2

[EastwoodS]

AK: R +12
IA: R +14
OH: R +12
ME2: R +11
TX: R +8
FL: R +10
NC: R +5
GA: R +1
AZ: R +2
WI: R +4
PA: R +3
NV: R +4
MI: R +1
NE2: D +3
MN: D +3
NH: D +4
ME: D +5
VA: D +5
NM: D +6
CO: D +13
NJ: D +12
OR: D +13
IL: D +13
DE: D +16
WA: D +16

No.

I think he might be a little optimistic for the GOP in some of these battlegrounds, but it doesn't look like a GOP hack map, per se. It's only about 2-4 points more Republican friendly of a prediction than most of the polls we see right now.
Remember, Donald Trump has a lot of voters that will come out for the GOP in ways that they haven't in years and Joe Biden's approval rating is quite low, this is really a 50/50 shot for both men, I think Biden's ceiling is a lot higher than Trump's though. Overall, I'd say Trump's chances are better than 2020 but worse than 2016, so extrapolate, along with state trends and you have a decent shot for either candidate.

[cherry mandarin]

Trump's chances for 2024 are better than they were  back in 2020 but worse than his 2016 odds

Only  with  the benefit  of  hindsight—before Election Night 2016, most "experts" thought Trump would have 0% chance at winning.

2-4 points  more Republican-friendly  of  a prediction  than  the polls that we're currently seeing.

Current  national polling  shows, on average, a net swing  of  5 or 6 points  in  the direction  of Trump  compared with 2020. As a result, this would signal  that  the above poster  is actually *undershooting* his chances  in  pretty much  every state.

Of course, there's definitely  an argument  to be made  that  the current polls  paint  too rosy  of  a picture  for Trump—that's  an entirely different  discussion and debate  altogether, though.

[EastwoodS]

Trump's chances for 2024 are better than they were  back in 2020 but worse than his 2016 odds

Only  with  the benefit  of  hindsight—before Election Night 2016, most "experts" thought Trump would have 0% chance at winning.

2-4 points  more Republican-friendly  of  a prediction  than  the polls that we're currently seeing.

Current  national polling  shows, on average, a net swing  of  5 or 6 points  in  the direction  of Trump  compared with 2020. As a result, this would signal  that  the above poster  is actually *undershooting* his chances  in  pretty much  every state.

Of course, there's definitely  an argument  to be made  that  the current polls  paint  too rosy  of  a picture  for Trump—that's  an entirely different  discussion and debate  altogether, though.

that's what I meant, his 2024 odds are better than his 2020 results, but worse than 2016 results.

[cherry mandarin]

his 2024 odds would imply that he's favoured to put in a better performance than his 2020 results would suggest, but he's an underdog to replicate his final 2016 outcome  or  anything to  the same extent, or  of a similar degree.

Fairly reasonable, given that  the bulk  of  nail-biter finishes  in  the battleground states  broke  Trump's way  in 2016  but  that fortune  favoured Biden  instead  in 2020.

[EastwoodS]

his 2024 odds would imply that he's favoured to put in a better performance than his 2020 results would suggest, but he's an underdog to replicate his final 2016 outcome  or  anything to  the same extent, or  of a similar degree.

Fairly reasonable, given that  the bulk  of  nail-biter finishes  in  the battleground states  broke  Trump's way  in 2016  but  that fortune  favoured Biden  instead  in 2020.

also, since you are in Florida, how do you see Florida swinging, by how much, and how do you see some of these counties that voted for Desantis going towards Trump i.e. Tampa, Miami, Seminole..
You probably have better intuition, being from there.

[cherry mandarin]

his 2024 odds would imply that he's favoured to put in a better performance than his 2020 results would suggest, but he's an underdog to replicate his final 2016 outcome  or  anything to  the same extent, or  of a similar degree.

Fairly reasonable, given that  the bulk  of  nail-biter finishes  in  the battleground states  broke  Trump's way  in 2016  but  that fortune  favoured Biden  instead  in 2020.

also, since you are in Florida, how do you see Florida swinging, by how much, and how do you see some of these counties that voted for Desantis going towards Trump i.e. Tampa, Miami, Seminole..
You probably have better intuition, being from there.

I'm not Floridian. Actually, I'm not even American—that's just the avatar that I chose to use.

I'll try  my best  to answer  your question  anyway, though.

Miami-Dade isn't easy to guess—in 2020, I got  its % margin (not the raw margin) off  by  almost 4 times  as much as  in *any* of the 66 other counties  in Florida, it's truly crazy.

That being said, I'd estimate Trump+11 in Florida  overall  at the moment, though  it's probably *more* likely  that  he falls, rather than  climbing *even* further, between  now  and  E-day 2024.

Let's go with Trump+1 in Hillsborough County, Trump+2 or +3 in Miami-Dade, Trump+4 or +5 in Seminole. Or  were you  referring to  the cities of Tampa and Miami themselves, specifically?

If you have  any  other questions  regarding  my thoughts, feel free  to  let me know, and I'd be happy  to  provide   all  the answers  you need.

How do you see KY voting  in  this fall's elections, by the way?

[EastwoodS]

his 2024 odds would imply that he's favoured to put in a better performance than his 2020 results would suggest, but he's an underdog to replicate his final 2016 outcome  or  anything to  the same extent, or  of a similar degree.

Fairly reasonable, given that  the bulk  of  nail-biter finishes  in  the battleground states  broke  Trump's way  in 2016  but  that fortune  favoured Biden  instead  in 2020.

also, since you are in Florida, how do you see Florida swinging, by how much, and how do you see some of these counties that voted for Desantis going towards Trump i.e. Tampa, Miami, Seminole..
You probably have better intuition, being from there.

I'm not Floridian. Actually, I'm not even American—that's just the avatar that I chose to use.

I'll try  my best  to answer  your question  anyway, though.

Miami-Dade isn't easy to guess—in 2020, I got  its % margin (not the raw margin) off  by  almost 4 times  as much as  in *any* of the 66 other counties  in Florida, it's truly crazy.

That being said, I'd estimate Trump+11 in Florida  overall  at the moment, though  it's probably *more* likely  that  he falls, rather than  climbing *even* further, between  now  and  E-day 2024.

Let's go with Trump+1 in Hillsborough County, Trump+2 or +3 in Miami-Dade, Trump+4 or +5 in Seminole. Or  were you  referring to  the cities of Tampa and Miami themselves, specifically?

If you have  any  other questions  regarding  my thoughts, feel free  to  let me know, and I'd be happy  to  provide   all  the answers  you need.

How do you see KY voting  in  this fall's elections, by the way?

Trump +1 in Hillsborough would be huge and would definitely make a lot of Republicans happy to see the GOP break their losing streak there and gain another Republican metropolis. and yeah I can actually see Trump picking off Dade, Seminole seems like it is getting very liberal, very fast, Orlando seems to be bucking the state trends so we will see.
and yeah, Trump plus 11, overall, seems to be his ceiling, but I can't see his floor being under 5%.
As for Kentucky, I'd say Trump +25/26. About the same as 2020. Trump has a couple of things working for him, especially in Eastern and southern Kentucky. Where I can see Trump doing worse is the Lexington Suburbs, especially in Versailles and Georgetown. I can honestly see Trump carrying Bourbon county by less than 5, it is rapidly turning blue, and Scott county isn't much better. North Kentucky will Probably be similar to 2020 or 2022, Campbell and Kenton county may shift towards the Democrats, and this seems reasonable, given the Cinci area seems to be going that way. As for Jefferson county (58-42 Biden imo), I can see his working class energy resonating well enough in the south side  to keep Jefferson county to the right of Fayette county, Kentucky (62-38 Biden imo) which tends to be upper-middle class, college educated voters.

[cherry mandarin]

his 2024 odds would imply that he's favoured to put in a better performance than his 2020 results would suggest, but he's an underdog to replicate his final 2016 outcome  or  anything to  the same extent, or  of a similar degree.

Fairly reasonable, given that  the bulk  of  nail-biter finishes  in  the battleground states  broke  Trump's way  in 2016  but  that fortune  favoured Biden  instead  in 2020.

also, since you are in Florida, how do you see Florida swinging, by how much, and how do you see some of these counties that voted for Desantis going towards Trump i.e. Tampa, Miami, Seminole..
You probably have better intuition, being from there.

I'm not Floridian. Actually, I'm not even American—that's just the avatar that I chose to use.

I'll try  my best  to answer  your question  anyway, though.

Miami-Dade isn't easy to guess—in 2020, I got  its % margin (not the raw margin) off  by  almost 4 times  as much as  in *any* of the 66 other counties  in Florida, it's truly crazy.

That being said, I'd estimate Trump+11 in Florida  overall  at the moment, though  it's probably *more* likely  that  he falls, rather than  climbing *even* further, between  now  and  E-day 2024.

Let's go with Trump+1 in Hillsborough County, Trump+2 or +3 in Miami-Dade, Trump+4 or +5 in Seminole. Or  were you  referring to  the cities of Tampa and Miami themselves, specifically?

If you have  any  other questions  regarding  my thoughts, feel free  to  let me know, and I'd be happy  to  provide   all  the answers  you need.

How do you see KY voting  in  this fall's elections, by the way?

Trump +1 in Hillsborough would be huge and would definitely make a lot of Republicans happy to see the GOP break their losing streak there and gain another Republican metropolis. and yeah I can actually see Trump picking off Dade, Seminole seems like it is getting very liberal, very fast, Orlando seems to be bucking the state trends so we will see.
and yeah, Trump plus 11, overall, seems to be his ceiling, but I can't see his floor being under 5%.

As for Kentucky, I'd say Trump +25/26. About the same as 2020. Trump has a couple of things working for him, especially in Eastern and southern Kentucky. Where I can see Trump doing worse is the Lexington Suburbs, especially in Versailles and Georgetown. I can honestly see Trump carrying Bourbon county by less than 5, it is rapidly turning blue, and Scott county isn't much better. North Kentucky will Probably be similar to 2020 or 2022, Campbell and Kenton county may shift towards the Democrats, and this seems reasonable, given the Cinci area seems to be going that way. As for Jefferson county (58-42 Biden imo), I can see his working class energy resonating well enough in the south side  to keep Jefferson county to the right of Fayette county, Kentucky (62-38 Biden imo) which tends to be upper-middle class, college educated voters.

Oh I was referring to the 2023 elections but yeah that's a nice analysis, thanks anyways lol.

[EastwoodS]

his 2024 odds would imply that he's favoured to put in a better performance than his 2020 results would suggest, but he's an underdog to replicate his final 2016 outcome  or  anything to  the same extent, or  of a similar degree.

Fairly reasonable, given that  the bulk  of  nail-biter finishes  in  the battleground states  broke  Trump's way  in 2016  but  that fortune  favoured Biden  instead  in 2020.

also, since you are in Florida, how do you see Florida swinging, by how much, and how do you see some of these counties that voted for Desantis going towards Trump i.e. Tampa, Miami, Seminole..
You probably have better intuition, being from there.

I'm not Floridian. Actually, I'm not even American—that's just the avatar that I chose to use.

I'll try  my best  to answer  your question  anyway, though.

Miami-Dade isn't easy to guess—in 2020, I got  its % margin (not the raw margin) off  by  almost 4 times  as much as  in *any* of the 66 other counties  in Florida, it's truly crazy.

That being said, I'd estimate Trump+11 in Florida  overall  at the moment, though  it's probably *more* likely  that  he falls, rather than  climbing *even* further, between  now  and  E-day 2024.

Let's go with Trump+1 in Hillsborough County, Trump+2 or +3 in Miami-Dade, Trump+4 or +5 in Seminole. Or  were you  referring to  the cities of Tampa and Miami themselves, specifically?

If you have  any  other questions  regarding  my thoughts, feel free  to  let me know, and I'd be happy  to  provide   all  the answers  you need.

How do you see KY voting  in  this fall's elections, by the way?

Trump +1 in Hillsborough would be huge and would definitely make a lot of Republicans happy to see the GOP break their losing streak there and gain another Republican metropolis. and yeah I can actually see Trump picking off Dade, Seminole seems like it is getting very liberal, very fast, Orlando seems to be bucking the state trends so we will see.
and yeah, Trump plus 11, overall, seems to be his ceiling, but I can't see his floor being under 5%.

As for Kentucky, I'd say Trump +25/26. About the same as 2020. Trump has a couple of things working for him, especially in Eastern and southern Kentucky. Where I can see Trump doing worse is the Lexington Suburbs, especially in Versailles and Georgetown. I can honestly see Trump carrying Bourbon county by less than 5, it is rapidly turning blue, and Scott county isn't much better. North Kentucky will Probably be similar to 2020 or 2022, Campbell and Kenton county may shift towards the Democrats, and this seems reasonable, given the Cinci area seems to be going that way. As for Jefferson county (58-42 Biden imo), I can see his working class energy resonating well enough in the south side  to keep Jefferson county to the right of Fayette county, Kentucky (62-38 Biden imo) which tends to be upper-middle class, college educated voters.

Oh I was referring to the 2023 elections but yeah that's a nice analysis, thanks anyways lol.

oh sorry, overall, Beshear wins, by keeping the Lexington suburbs blue, expanding in Frankfort, and keeping the margin high in Louisville, also, I expect this race to be nationalized to death, so I'm sure college educated voters will be storming the polls.

[cherry mandarin]

I expect it to get nationalized

Wouldn't that be good *news* for Republican hopes, in a state that's as red as KY is?

Due to turbo-charged turnout, solidified partisanship, hardened feelings  on  both sides, and  a decline  in  ticket-splitting, of course.

[EastwoodS]

I expect it to get nationalized

Wouldn't that be good *news* for Republican hopes, in a state that's as red as KY is?

Due to turbo-charged turnout, solidified partisanship, hardened feelings  on  both sides, and  a decline  in  ticket-splitting, of course.

yeah, but that can also hurt republicans, especially when it comes to abortion and such.
also, a lot of low propensity Trump voters won't turn out.

[cherry mandarin]

that can also hurt Republicans, especially  when it comes to  abortion and such. in addition, a bunch of low-propensity Trump voters simply aren't going to turn out.

Shouldn't  Kentucky's partisan lean  cancel that out  and  overwhelm  the Democratic edge  anyway?

I'd have thought  the abortion issue  energizes  a larger Republican base  than  the Democratic one, regardless.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Alaska: Trump+8.
Iowa: Trump+11.
Ohio: Trump+9.
ME-2: Trump+6.
Texas: Trump+3.5.
Florida: Trump+9.
North Carolina: Most unsure, <1% either way.
Georgia: Biden+2.
Arizona: Biden+2.5.
Wisconsin: Biden+1.5.
Pennsylvania: Biden+3.
Nevada: Biden+2.5.
Michigan: Biden+4.5.
NE-02: Biden+9.
MN: Biden+9.
NH: Biden+10.
ME-AL: Biden+10.
VA: Biden+11.
NM: Biden+11.
CO: Biden+18.
NJ: Biden+15.
OR: Biden+17.
IL: Biden+16.
DE: Biden+18.
WA: Biden+20.

[coloradocowboi]

- Alaska: Trump +4
- Iowa: Trump +9
- Ohio: Trump +5
- ME 2: Trump +8
- Texas: Trump +5
- Florida: Trump +7
- North Carolina: Trump by less than .5
- Georgia: Biden by less than .5
- Arizona: Biden +3
- Wisconsin: Biden +4
- Pennsylvania: Biden +6
- Nevada: Biden +2
- Michigan: Biden +7
- NE 2: Biden +8
- Minnesota: Biden +9
- New Hampshire: Biden +10
- Maine: Biden +10
- Virginia: Biden +10
- New Mexico: Biden +12
- Colorado: Biden +20 (yup)
- New Jersey: Biden +20
- Oregon: Biden +18
- Illinois: Biden +18
- Delaware: Biden +22
- Washington state: Biden +24

You are bullish in PA

Yeah, I think that Biden will bounce back a lot with secular, non-college whites

[cherry mandarin]

- Alaska: Trump +4
- Iowa: Trump +9
- Ohio: Trump +5
- ME 2: Trump +8
- Texas: Trump +5
- Florida: Trump +7
- North Carolina: Trump by less than .5
- Georgia: Biden by less than .5
- Arizona: Biden +3
- Wisconsin: Biden +4
- Pennsylvania: Biden +6
- Nevada: Biden +2
- Michigan: Biden +7
- NE 2: Biden +8
- Minnesota: Biden +9
- New Hampshire: Biden +10
- Maine: Biden +10
- Virginia: Biden +10
- New Mexico: Biden +12
- Colorado: Biden +20 (yup)
- New Jersey: Biden +20
- Oregon: Biden +18
- Illinois: Biden +18
- Delaware: Biden +22
- Washington state: Biden +24

You are bullish in PA

Yeah, I think that Biden will bounce back a lot with secular, non-college whites

I think  2020  was  more of  a high-water mark  for Biden  within  that group  than  a lowpoint, but  I guess  we shall see.

[coloradocowboi]

- Alaska: Trump +4
- Iowa: Trump +9
- Ohio: Trump +5
- ME 2: Trump +8
- Texas: Trump +5
- Florida: Trump +7
- North Carolina: Trump by less than .5
- Georgia: Biden by less than .5
- Arizona: Biden +3
- Wisconsin: Biden +4
- Pennsylvania: Biden +6
- Nevada: Biden +2
- Michigan: Biden +7
- NE 2: Biden +8
- Minnesota: Biden +9
- New Hampshire: Biden +10
- Maine: Biden +10
- Virginia: Biden +10
- New Mexico: Biden +12
- Colorado: Biden +20 (yup)
- New Jersey: Biden +20
- Oregon: Biden +18
- Illinois: Biden +18
- Delaware: Biden +22
- Washington state: Biden +24

You are bullish in PA

Yeah, I think that Biden will bounce back a lot with secular, non-college whites

I think  2020  was  more of  a high-water mark  for Biden  within  that group  than  a lowpoint, but  I guess  we shall see.

The key to what I am saying is secular. If you're not evangelical, the culture wars are a much tougher sell. Meanwhile, Trump has lost a lot of his credibility on economics, especially trade - which was a significant part of his victory in 2016 in the "firewall" trio.

Evangelicals are a shrinking part of the population, but they have a stranglehold on Republican primaries. I also expect them to choose candidates who basically throw away winnable elections in Nevada, Arizona, and Michigan - all three states with relatively low (and shrinking) evangelical populations but where they dominate (along with other fantasists) primaries.

[pbrower2a]

- Ohio (17) R+2
- Wisconsin (10) D+1
- Michigan (15) D+8

Hard to believe ...

Just look at the vote on the proposition today in Ohio. The GOP (especially the MAGA tpes really wanted to win that one in an R-leaning state. Ohio can swing wildly, as between 2012 and 2016.

At this  point I may be excessively  cautious.
 

[LAKISYLVANIA]

- Alaska (3): Trump +2
- Iowa (6): Trump +12
- Ohio (17): Trump +12
- Maine's second congressional district (1): Trump +6
- Texas (40): Trump +7
- Florida (30): Trump +12
- North Carolina (16): Trump +3
- Georgia (16): Biden +0
- Arizona (11): Biden +1
- Wisconsin (10): Trump +2
- Pennsylvania (19): Biden +4
- Nevada (6): Biden +2
- Michigan (15): Biden +9
- Nebraska's second congressional district (1): Biden +3
- Minnesota (10): Biden +6
- New Hampshire (4): Biden +11
- Maine (2 at-large EVs): Biden +10
- Virginia (13): Biden +7
- New Mexico (5): Biden +10
- Colorado (10): Biden +14
- New Jersey (14): Biden +9
- Oregon (8 ): Biden +15
- Illinois (19): Biden +16
- Delaware (3): Biden +17
- Washington state (12): Biden +18

[SaneDemocrat]

- Alaska (3): Trump +2
- Iowa (6): Trump +12
- Ohio (17): Trump +12
- Maine's second congressional district (1): Trump +6
- Texas (40): Trump +7
- Florida (30): Trump +12
- North Carolina (16): Trump +3
- Georgia (16): Biden +0
- Arizona (11): Biden +1
- Wisconsin (10): Trump +2
- Pennsylvania (19): Biden +4
- Nevada (6): Biden +2
- Michigan (15): Biden +9
- Nebraska's second congressional district (1): Biden +3
- Minnesota (10): Biden +6
- New Hampshire (4): Biden +11
- Maine (2 at-large EVs): Biden +10
- Virginia (13): Biden +7
- New Mexico (5): Biden +10
- Colorado (10): Biden +14
- New Jersey (14): Biden +9
- Oregon (8 ): Biden +15
- Illinois (19): Biden +16
- Delaware (3): Biden +17
- Washington state (12): Biden +18

Why do you think Jersey will be that close?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Eh sure, why not

- Alaska (3): Trump +7
- Iowa (6): Trump +9
- Ohio (17): Trump +8
- Maine 2nd CD (1): Trump +5
- Texas (40): Trump +3
- Florida (30): Trump +9
- North Carolina (16): Biden +0
- Georgia (16): Biden +3
- Arizona (11): Biden +2
- Wisconsin (10): Biden +2
- Pennsylvania (19): Biden +3
- Nevada (6): Biden +2
- Michigan (15): Biden +5
- Nebraska 2nd CD (1): Biden +9
- Minnesota (10): Biden +10
- New Hampshire (4): Biden +10
- Maine (2 at-large EVs): Biden +12
- Virginia (13): Biden +12
- New Mexico (5): Biden +12
- Colorado (10): Biden +17
- New Jersey (14): Biden +18
- Oregon (8 ): Biden +17
- Illinois (19): Biden +19
- Delaware (3): Biden +21
- Washington state (12): Biden +22

These are from my baseline scenario of Biden winning by 5.5 nationally.

[WalterWhite]

ASSUMING A D+3.2 NATIONAL ENVIRONMENT FOR POTUS:

- Alaska (3): Trump +10.3
- Iowa (6): Trump +5.0
- Ohio (17): Trump +4.7
- Maine 2nd CD (1): Trump +6.6
- Texas (40): Trump +1.9
- Florida (30): Trump +4.7
- North Carolina (16): Biden +0.1
- Georgia (16): Biden +0.8
- Arizona (11): Biden +2.1
- Wisconsin (10): Biden +5.0
- Pennsylvania (19): Biden +5.4
- Nevada (6): Biden +1.1
- Michigan (15): Biden +5.1
- Nebraska 2nd CD (1): Biden +5.7
- Minnesota (10): Biden +9.2
- New Hampshire (4): Biden +7.8
- Maine (2 at-large EVs): Biden +8.8
- Virginia (13): Biden +9.6
- New Mexico (5): Biden +11.0
- Colorado (10): Biden +13.6
- New Jersey (14): Biden +15.5
- Oregon (8 ): Biden +15.0
- Illinois (19): Biden +15.7
- Delaware (3): Biden +18.5
- Washington state (12): Biden +16.4