How did Romney win Chester County?
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  How did Romney win Chester County?
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Author Topic: How did Romney win Chester County?  (Read 933 times)
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riverwalk3
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« on: July 18, 2023, 10:17:48 PM »

Romney narrowly won Chester County after McCain lost it by around 10. Trump lost it by 9 and 17 in his 2 runs.

He lost 13 counties in PA, similar to Trump in 2020. It looked like he would lose 12 but absentees and provisionals narrowly shifted Centre to Obama's column.
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TML
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« Reply #1 on: July 18, 2023, 10:51:24 PM »

Back in 2012, Republicans were stronger with white voters with higher education, having dominated this voting group in the 2010 and 2014 midterm elections. Additionally, Republicans still held a partisan advantage in terms of voter registration back then; it was only in the last few years that Democrats overtook Republicans in that regard.
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Vosem
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« Reply #2 on: July 19, 2023, 10:21:03 AM »
« Edited: July 23, 2023, 11:23:04 PM by Vosem »

Kind of like Johnson County, KS, it was actually a really Republican place down-ballot until incredibly recently, and then had a very strong and visceral reaction to Trump. As late as 2016, Toomey did better there than he did statewide, and there were statewide candidates down-ballot who lost but still carried Chester County.

In the 2018-and-later alignment, it's one of just five totally safe counties for Democrats (together with Philly, DelCo, MontCo, and Allegheny), but it stands out for just how recently it was a nationally Republican place. (Though DelCo, too, was locally extremely Republican until the 2018 cycle, but it had stopped voting Republican nationally for a long time.)

Back in 2012, Republicans were stronger with white voters with higher education, having dominated this voting group in the 2010 and 2014 midterm elections. Additionally, Republicans still held a partisan advantage in terms of voter registration back then; it was only in the last few years that Democrats overtook Republicans in that regard.

You almost understate things; while Republicans suffered a huge collapse with this group between 2004 and 2008, for most of the Obama era these people were outright trending right, and 2014 was actually a very strong performance. (Notably, compared to Trump, 2014 also saw a strong Republican trend in farming and logging areas, but very much not industrial ones, which if anything trended anomalously leftwards. The interesting thing about Trump is that most of his gains, apart from some very specific ones, were kind of baked in, while most of his losses were actually extremely contingent.)
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Mexican Wolf
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« Reply #3 on: July 24, 2023, 09:36:59 PM »

Kind of like Johnson County, KS, it was actually a really Republican place down-ballot until incredibly recently, and then had a very strong and visceral reaction to Trump. As late as 2016, Toomey did better there than he did statewide, and there were statewide candidates down-ballot who lost but still carried Chester County.

Building on this, 2017 was the first time in county history that the Chester County Democrats won any row offices. Pre-2017, they only held the third county commissioner seat; post-2019, they hold every single row office except for the third commissioner seat, which has to be held by a member of a different party.

It's truly fascinating to consider how quickly the Chester County Republicans' dominance collapsed during the Trump years.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #4 on: January 19, 2024, 01:50:23 PM »

Romney was a good fit for county while Trump a terrible fit.  Other suburban counties with large college educated white populations saw big swings away from GOP.  Had Kasich been GOP candidate in 2016, I suspect would have carried county.  Also becoming less white too as many suburban counties are but even amongst whites, types who live here are more your fiscally conservative, socially centrist types who have little tolerance for right wing populism.  While winning it back may be tough, I think if GOP choose Haley, they would probably lose it by smaller margin than would with Trump.
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Joe McCarthy Was Right
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« Reply #5 on: March 11, 2024, 02:51:57 PM »

His father was a Rockefeller Republican, so he caused a temporary snapback from groups that had been trending Democratic.
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