Are Florida metros too new to turn blue

[Builder Refused]

Now of course migration patterns take an outsized role in Florida politics, just like Atlanta’s new clout is caused the reverse great migration. In Florida meanwhile you have a unique combo of internal and external migration, over the past 60 years or so: Jews, retirees from the Northeast and Midwest, West Indians, Latin Americans, economics around tourism, agriculture, and sometimes idiotic development (cough Cape Coral cough). As well as media apparatchiks, such as whatever Trump, the manosphere, a couple hurricanes, and demographic changes did to Miami seemingly overnight.

But my question was mainly off something I noticed about the 17 urban county clusters, with three or more counties over 500K. Of these, for reasons that are probably fairly complex, Miami, Tampa, and Orlando come dead last. There’s plenty of secondary cities bigger than these 3: Long Beach, Mesa, Fort Worth, Baltimore, even San Francisco. Then as well, there’s plenty of cities bigger than these with much suburban counties smaller than 500K. Why is Florida like this third category?

[Sumner 1868]

Florida is undergoing the same phenomenon as the Bay Area in the 1970s and North Idaho in the 1990s: a self-segregating Streisand effect political migration. Lockdown speed up this trend but it was inevitable. And as the youth of the 1980s begin retiring over the next decade it will only increase the Republican margins.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I wouldn't say "too new", especially since some examples of the major blue metro areas are relatively "new" like Austin.