Note on my snapshot:

[© tweed]

Please note that my snapshot reflect's Kerry's bounce since picking Edwards.  I am certain that Florida will find it's way back in to the Bush camp soon enough, along with AR, MO, etc.

[WalterMitty]

tweed, edwards hasnt helped that much.

[© tweed]

tweed, edwards hasnt helped that much.

Crawl out of the shell and see that Edwards has been a 4% bump

[12th Doctor]

tweed, edwards hasnt helped that much.

Crawl out of the shell and see that Edwards has been a 4% bump

Which is tiny, compared to previous bumps.  I think that the media talked it up so much, that no one expected any different.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

tweed, edwards hasnt helped that much.

Crawl out of the shell and see that Edwards has been a 4% bump

Which is tiny, compared to previous bumps.  I think that the media talked it up so much, that no one expected any different.

It is actually right in line with previous bumps...it just doesn't include the post-convention bump yet.  Most candidates reveal their VP a few days before the convention, and the two bumps can't really be counted seperately from each other.

I expect Kerry will get another 4-5% bounce from his convention, for a total of 8-10%

[ATFFL]

tweed, edwards hasnt helped that much.

Crawl out of the shell and see that Edwards has been a 4% bump

Which is tiny, compared to previous bumps.  I think that the media talked it up so much, that no one expected any different.

It is actually right in line with previous bumps...it just doesn't include the post-convention bump yet.  Most candidates reveal their VP a few days before the convention, and the two bumps can't really be counted seperately from each other.

I expect Kerry will get another 4-5% bounce from his convention, for a total of 8-10%

That is assuming this bump lasts the month.  This is the earliest VP pick in recent memory, no one knows how long the bump will last.  It could stay through the convention, or be gone in a week.

[WalterMitty]

too bad the 4 % bump isnt going to hold until the convention.

has john edwards been asked a tough question yet?  his economic ideas are complete nonsense.  this populism crap coming from a guy worth millions is absurd.

once the media gets over their giddiness, they *may* ask a tough question or two.  id like to know if john kerry has hopped on the protectionist bandwagon.  he has been a free trader throughout his career.

[agcatter]

Problem is that they probably will never get over their giddiness.  Tough questions from the media?  Walter, you know that isn't going to happen.  Nothing but puff pieces from the media for the sunshine boys through November.  That's a given.

[WalterMitty]

no offense, but im still wondering how anyone, who has even a basic knowledge of economics, could support protectionism?

get real people.  the prom king doesnt have a clue.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

no offense, but im still wondering how anyone, who has even a basic knowledge of economics, could support protectionism?

get real people.  the prom king doesnt have a clue.

I could certainly support protectionism if I'm the one whose job it saves.

Free trade increases overall wealth, but it also redistributes wealth.  Not everyone is made better off by it.   It marginally helps consumers across the board, and helps big business, but it severely hurts a specific segement of the working class.  If that working class is your constituency, protectionism makes sense.

Proponents of free trade should also be supporting increased unemployment benefits, job training, and universal health care to make sure that the benefits of free trade reach everyone.

[The Vorlon]

tweed, edwards hasnt helped that much.

Crawl out of the shell and see that Edwards has been a 4% bump

Which is tiny, compared to previous bumps.  I think that the media talked it up so much, that no one expected any different.

It is actually right in line with previous bumps...it just doesn't include the post-convention bump yet.  Most candidates reveal their VP a few days before the convention, and the two bumps can't really be counted seperately from each other.

I expect Kerry will get another 4-5% bounce from his convention, for a total of 8-10%

Kerry/Edwards have got their bump.

NO convention bump - you read it here first.

The polls on August 5 look very much like they do now.

I will be back Aug 5th to either gloat or eat crow

[Gustaf]

On bumps, I think the tightness and heat of the race will make all bumps smaller than usual...most people are already more or less decided.

On free trade, in the long run it helps everyone...protectionism is based on a very nationalist out-look since other people are getting the jobs your own country is losing. You make up for this by redistributing the jobs at home to areas where you can compete more efficiently.

[MODU]

HAHAHA . . . Vorlon, can we have a negative bump?  We can pretty much assume half of the Democratic convention will simply be a Bush roast.  A lot of people I know get tuned out by that kind of rhetoric.  Maybe if they spend a majority of the time roasting Bush, they'll lose ground?

And, I'm still waiting for Kerry to come up with a detailed platform for the future.  All he's done so far is stated that he can do things better (no details) and has promised the moon in regards to federal programs (but insists that he can do all of it, plus reduce the deficit, by not raising taxes).  If no details come out before the debates, he's sunk.

[WalterMitty]

here is a good question the media might want to ask, or perhaps they want to do feel good stories aobut john edwards for the rest of the campaign.

since kerry/edwards have talked extensively about  'restoring american prestige around the world', im wondering how well their silly protectionist ideas will play with our allies in europe?

again, im not counting on that question being asked, but im looking forward to seeing another article about edwards' two small children.

[MODU]

Now Mitty, you actually think the media would pose a difficult question to a Democratic candidate?  tsk tsk tsk . . . that's the job for the debate moderators, not open media.  That way, if people don't watch the debates, they won't see Kerry fumble over his position (again), and the media won't have to cover it the following day.  hahaha

[© tweed]

Guys, listen to me.

I DO NOT think Bush will get only 218 electoral votes on Nov. 2.  I think he will get around 400.  But if the election was held today, Kerry would win the PV by about 4%.

Kerry will be up 5-6% at the beginning of August, and 1-2% into the GOP convention, and down 1-2% heading in to Labor Day.  By Labor day, he will have the lead in Florida, Arkansas, Missouri, Nevada, and pollibly Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Oregon, New Mexico, etc.

[© tweed]

I switched MO, AR, and NV back to Bush.  LA should be solid Bush but I missed out on that one.

[??????????]

Guys, listen to me.

I DO NOT think Bush will get only 218 electoral votes on Nov. 2.  I think he will get around 400.  But if the election was held today, Kerry would win the PV by about 4%.

Kerry will be up 5-6% at the beginning of August, and 1-2% into the GOP convention, and down 1-2% heading in to Labor Day.  By Labor day, he will have the lead in Florida, Arkansas, Missouri, Nevada, and pollibly Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Oregon, New Mexico, etc.

You really dont have much faith in Kerry do you? In all seriousness. Do you believe in the end Bush will win every battleground and possibly pick up some currently "solid" Kerry states?

[English]

I don't understand the pessimism over Kerry. Beet even predicts him losing Maine!! Bush will have to win a landslide before he wins Maine and that certainly isn't gonna happen.
Kerry is totally safe in the Northeast, if Bush wins, he'll win by gaining WI, IA, OR or PA. MN, MI & ME are safe for the Dems.
MN hasn't gone for the Republicans since 1972 and ME is trending to the Dems, just like the entire Northeast.

[English]

I switched MO, AR, and NV back to Bush.  LA should be solid Bush but I missed out on that one.

Tweed, with all due respect I don't think Kerry has ever had a chance in AR. That'll be an easy Bush win. It's heading GOP and will be as safe for them as AL or MS by 2012.
MO, I think might be the surprise, going to Kerry. NV won't go to Kerry this time, but by 2012 it'll be solid Democrat.
Forget the south and west this time around, OH, PA, IA, WI are the key states. NH will go Dem mark my words, he just needs to hold PA, WI, IA and gain OH.

[MODU]

Not necessarily.  Maine might not go totally for Bush, but he can at least pick up 1 EV there.  Maine was close in the polls in 2000.

[stry_cat]

MN hasn't gone for the Republicans since 1972 and ME is trending to the Dems, just like the entire Northeast.

Minnesota?  I'm not sure it's trending to the Dems.  The Republicans now have most of the statewide executive offices, the Congressional delegation is now split (in '99 there were only 2 out of 8 reps were Republicans), and from what I could find the R's have made gains in both houses of the state legislature (they now control the House).  It's been trending republican for a whilie.  Kerry might break this trend, he is leading in all of the polls I've seen. I think the state overall is still trending Republican.  

[English]

No, I said ME was trending to the Dems. MN will stay Dem this time around

[stry_cat]

No, I said ME was trending to the Dems. MN will stay Dem this time around

Ah sorry I missread... Too many states with Mx as the abbreviation.

[© tweed]

Tweed, with all due respect I don't think Kerry has ever had a chance in AR. That'll be an easy Bush win. It's heading GOP and will be as safe for them as AL or MS by 2012.

Who not?  All polls have him within 2% and some have him with the lead.