Immokalee, Florida - 95%+ black precinct only voted 77% for Biden. Why?

[Aurelius2]

There's a large precinct somewhere around Immokalee thatis over 95% black IIRC yet only voted 77% Biden. Why?

[Sol]

I assume you're talking about the precinct including Harlem in Hendry County?

[kwabbit]

This precinct and the one north of it have basically identical numbers despite much different demographics so my guess is they were aggregated, producing the 72-26 topline, then separated.

[Aurelius2]

I assume you're talking about the precinct including Harlem in Hendry County?

Yeah. Was awhile ago I looked at it in DRA.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I've also found some weird discrepancies in other Southern States where the black population is scattered across precincts like a checker-board where the Biden vote share is much lower the black population.

I think in these sorts of situations, the census numbers can be a bit off on the true black population of  a precinct. Also in some cases these can be explained by a precinct having a large prison population. Also 2020 with mail in voting and having to guess the precinct allocaiton of mail-in votes screwed some things up.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I've also found some weird discrepancies in other Southern States where the black population is scattered across precincts like a checker-board where the Biden vote share is much lower the black population.

I think in these sorts of situations, the census numbers can be a bit off on the true black population of  a precinct. Also in some cases these can be explained by a precinct having a large prison population. Also 2020 with mail in voting and having to guess the precinct allocaiton of mail-in votes screwed some things up.

Is it also possible that there's a large Black Immigrant Population (I know most Haitians who immigrate to the US move to FL these days, for instance, and it stands to reason that many other Caribbean immigrants would move to FL too, due to geographic proximity if nothing else) who can't vote or don't vote?

[Sol]

I've also found some weird discrepancies in other Southern States where the black population is scattered across precincts like a checker-board where the Biden vote share is much lower the black population.

I think in these sorts of situations, the census numbers can be a bit off on the true black population of  a precinct. Also in some cases these can be explained by a precinct having a large prison population. Also 2020 with mail in voting and having to guess the precinct allocaiton of mail-in votes screwed some things up.

Is it also possible that there's a large Black Immigrant Population (I know most Haitians who immigrate to the US move to FL these days, for instance, and it stands to reason that many other Caribbean immigrants would move to FL too, due to geographic proximity if nothing else) who can't vote or don't vote?

That was my initial assumption too, especially since this part of Florida has so many migrant workers, but the DRA CVAP numbers didn't point to that.

Interesting article about Harlem, FL. Apparently the area is functionally part of Clewiston but just outside the city limits (probably due to a discriminatory choice not to annex) and was founded as a segregated camp for Black sugar workers in 20s, largely ADOS but also some immigrants from the anglophone Carribean, whose descendants are probably citizens.