Which major western countries could become autocracies in the next 20 years

[Red Wall]

Although I asked autocracy it's really any form of authoritarian government including a dictatorship. So what are you guys opinions?

[CumbrianLefty]

The consensus on here - that France and the US are mostly likely - is probably correct.

But nowhere can be complacent, especially given how so much of the previously mainstream right in the West is being captured by Orbanism.

[Lord Halifax]

The consensus on here - that France and the US are mostly likely - is probably correct.

But nowhere can be complacent, especially given how so much of the previously mainstream right in the West is being captured by Orbanism.

in addition to the US and France having more polarized politics and societies it's also simply easier to turn a presidential system in an authoritarian direction than a parliamentarian. In principle the absence of a written constitution in the UK makes it easier, but I doubt that would be true in practice. I actually think it's easier to see the French military accepting an authoritarian government than the American and France is a unitary state, so while I voted for both I'd say France is the least unlikely. In the US many states would try to actively disobey and obstruct an authoritarian president and I doubt the army would agree to suppress political dissent. The German constitution was deliberately set up to prevent an authoritarian government and while there are right wing elements in the Bundeswehr I just can't see them tolerating an authoritarian Chancellor or all of the individual länder going along. Spain has a right wing dominated "deep state" but has its autonomous regions and a strong antifascist legacy in civil society so there would be more resistance than in France.

From most likely (least unlikely) to least likely:

France

US

Spain

UK
Germany

[Middle-aged Europe]

Germany will possibly struggle with some form of AfD government in one of the eastern states in the near-future. The ramifications of that will be... interesting.

More moderate elements in the eastern chapters of the CDU, like former Thuringian state chairman Maik Mohring, have recently opened themselves up to the possibility of a closer cooperation between his party and the Left Party due to the fact that a form of CDU-Left-SPD-FDP-Green government might be the only thing that keeps the AfD locked into the opposition after the next elections.

If an eastern CDU chapter decides to form a coalition with the AfD that could very well destroy the CDU in its current form. Liberal West German CDU politicians like Schleswig-Holstein's minister-president Daniel Günther are quite adamant in their opposition to the AfD. While current federal chairman Friedrich Merz tries to push the party more to the right, that move alone has already caused some friction within the party's ranks recently.

So the AfD coming to power in one of the eastern states could lead to some sort of realignment of the entire party system and possibly see the end of the CDU as a single, unified organization.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Which country's political class looks the least capable?

[Cassius]

Most of them will become even less democratic. That’s the way the whole world is going unfortunately.

[buritobr]

Maybe the flaws of the liberal democracies will increase, like the increasing power of the money in the politics, gerrymandering and barriers for poor people to vote.

But I don't think western countries will become autocracies in the next 20 years. There were western liberal democracies which later became autocracies, like Germany 1918-1933 and Spain 1931-1936, but in these examples, there were clear signals that those democracies were not stable. There were coup attempts in Germany in 1920 and 1923. We don't see similar situation now.

[Death of a Salesman]

The UK is clearly the closest.

[OSR stands with Israel]

People forget the reason Orban was able to be Orban was because of how easy it was to change the Hungarian Constitution . All it needed to change the constitution in Hungary was for 2/3rd of their    
Unicameral Legislature to vote to amend it which is an extremely easy requirement.

In the US you need 2/3rd of both the house and the senate to just propose an amendment and then you need 3/4th of the states to ratify the amendment which makes changing the constitution extremely difficult here. Add to the fact that Hungary is a Unitary State and that makes it much more easier for a state like that to become authoritarian while the US is a Federal State with significant amount of power in the hands of states which makes it much harder for the Federal Government to take full control.

[Zinneke]

Spain is the one soonest to get there but France has the biggest potential for a genuine 1930s style autocracy given the swathes of "groupuscules" and the infilitration of the far right in the police, as well as a tetchy civil-military relations situation too. Spain under a PP-VOX government will be a neo-francoist project, that is, trying to achieve autocracy through democratic means, and will violently pursue all measures of "fifth columnists" like any leftist politician, seperatist, etc, as if they were violent terrorists, because this charges the testosterone-light vertically and penile-challenged demaguoges and South AMerican elitist imports likes Abascal and Ortega-Smith that now inhabit many areas of Spanish "chav society". France though will be a genuine military dictatorship.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Spain is the one soonest to get there but France has the biggest potential for a genuine 1930s style autocracy given the swathes of "groupuscules" and the infilitration of the far right in the police, as well as a tetchy civil-military relations situation too. Spain under a PP-VOX government will be a neo-francoist project, that is, trying to achieve autocracy through democratic means, and will violently pursue all measures of "fifth columnists" like any leftist politician, seperatist, etc, as if they were violent terrorists, because this charges the testosterone-light vertically and penile-challenged demaguoges and South AMerican elitist imports likes Abascal and Ortega-Smith that now inhabit many areas of Spanish "chav society". France though will be a genuine military dictatorship.

The single biggest impendiment to a return of the 1930s style autocracy is people not feeling desperate enough to lend their votes to those promising completely revolutionary change. (see also: why a lot of people in America who dislike "the establishment" however defined are very unlikely to lift a finger to actually fight it)
The situation in Europe could well get worse in the future. It can seem like Europe faces more dire domestic situations and harsher pressures than America does, but I have some skepticism that is actually accurate.

[CumbrianLefty]

The UK is clearly the closest.

At the moment, that is obviously not the case.

The danger may be the Tories going fully Orbanite in opposition, and then still winning an election.

[SnowLabrador]

Probably just the US. Our Constitution is uniquely awful.

[CumbrianLefty]

Your constitution is unique, yes. But others are as bad or even worse.

[It’s so Joever]

Spain could become one in the next week.

[Beet]

The founders of the US made a mistake in basing so much of their aesthetics on the Roman Republic, IMO, but other than that they were pretty anti-autocratic. Unfortunately, we are heading closer and closer to the logical conclusion of the centuries-long move away from their ideals towards economic stratification, executive branch expansion, and overseas entanglement.

[pikachu]

big rip to italy for losing its status as a major western country

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

big rip to italy for losing its status as a major western country

It's a major country, but it's actually part of the global south, which is why so many European leaders feel threatened by Giorgia "Girlboss" Meloni. The I in BIPOC is for the Italianx.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

big rip to italy for losing its status as a major western country

I preferred to interpret that choice as a sign of OP's confidence in our democratic institutions

[Samof94]

As for Italy, they had Mussolini in power literally a century ago and many Italians somehow think he was a good leader. With Spain, some far righters still admire Franco. A FN France would be chilling. AFD is truly chilling and xenophobic.  Brexit was obviously horrible for democracy. Even Canada had the infamous trucker Protests.  As for the US and Republicans, that is too obvious.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Voted for all but germany.

[CumbrianLefty]

big rip to italy for losing its status as a major western country

Hasn't this been a meme ever since Mussolini, at least?

[Upper Canada Tory]

None of the ones on the list, although the closest would be France due to laws that can get you arrested, charged and tried in court for saying a harsh insult about the President.

The Western countries most likely to become autocratic in the next several decades are possibly Hungary, Poland and other countries with similar levels of democratic backsliding and a lack of an independent judiciary. Most predictions of the US, UK, France et al becoming autocracies in their near future are inflammatory hyperbole as a result of dissatisfaction being expressed in domestic political discourse.

[Torrain]

The UK is clearly the closest.

[Hnv1]

The US/France are in greater dangers as they're presidential systems with less checks on power once you elect a moppet to office. I'd say the US is edging this poll as over 40% of the electorate wants to elect an autocrat right now, and given their backwards electoral system that's not that far off from winning