Result of all Presidental elections combined

[bagelman]

Above is a map combining every single electoral college result in American history. The ability to have 6 candidates instead of just 4 was a godsend for this piece, but 7 would've been the real magic number. As it stands, I'm happy how it came out.

Republicans currently have a 75 EV majority over Democrats, despite Democrats having a considerable head start in the 19th century. Republicans have run in every election for the White House since 1856, Democrats since 1828. The Democratic party includes Horace Greeley's run in 1872.

Although the Whig Party did not compete until the 1836 election, I have merged the National Republican Party (1828/32) into it, and also the (un)American party which won Maryland in 1856.

The Democratic Republican Party began in 1796 with Thomas Jefferson, and lasted through 1824. The 1824 election, despite being a 4 way contest, is treated similar to the 1820 election because all candidates were officially trying to lead it.

George Washington is counted as a Federalist, because although he disliked the concept of political parties, he broadly supported most Federalist policies. Also I needed to merge him into something.

The Southern Democrats are the various southern third party candidates in favor of slavery (John Breckenridge) and later segregation (George Wallace) that ran against the national Democratic party. Stephen Douglas is the national Democratic candidate for 1860.

The Progressives are a motley crew of populist, progressive, or left wing parties or candidates that won electoral votes. They may or may not be entirely compatible with each other. This category includes the Populists of 1892, the Bull Moose party of 1912, and Fighting Bob's 1924 win in his home state of Wisconsin.

The faithless electors are mostly divided between the two parties the electors were originally assigned to. The New Hampshire faithless elector to JQA in 1820 is given to the Federalists, as said elector was clearly pro-Federalist and probably only left because the party was no longer viable. This means JQA's electors are from three parties, the Federalists, the Democratic Republicans (the party he actually ran for, but this also includes Jackson '24), and the Whigs (as merged with the National Republicans). Finally there is one Libertarian faithless elector from Virginia.

If you disagree with any decision I have made, or spot any mistakes (the whole thing with JQA probably is one but I'm not going to change it now) feel free to create your own version.

[bagelman]

Here's a map I made in February of last year but I don't think I posted, a popular vote version, although only since 1856.



and a lengthy writeup covering each state:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Alabama

Democrats 1868-2004
Republicans 2004-present

Democrats controlled this state from 1868 through 2000, which preserved a margin of 15687 votes that was crushed in 2004. The current margin is R+8.8, 2.5 million votes.

Alaska

Republicans 1960-1964
Democrats 1964-1972
Republicans 1972-present

Landslide Lyndon easily crushed Nixon's small margin, and Nixon needed his own landslide in 1972 to flip the state with 4316 votes. The states current margin is R+18.5, a swing of D+1 for 2020.

Arizona

Democrats 1912-1928
Republicans 1928-1932
Democrats 1932-1968
Republicans 1968-present

Democrats usually controlled Arizona from 1912-1968, with an interruption in 1928 when the state went up to R+1.9 that was quickly flipped by FDR. Although the percentile margin has recently decreased, the current raw vote margin is over 2 million in favor of Republicans, good for R+8.5.

Arkansas

Democrats 1872-present

Democrats had a raw vote margin of over a million after 2004, but this has quickly declined. Trump 2020 almost finally flipped this state, which is the last southern state to remain Democratic on the strength of the old solid south/New Deal coalition. However Democrats hold on by only 3430 votes, which means it's almost certain to flip in 2024.

California

Democrats 1856-1872
Republicans 1872-1912
Democrats 1912-1920
Republicans 1920-1940
Democrats 1940-1956
Republicans 1956-1964
Democrats 1964-1972
Republicans 1972-2000
Democrats 2000-present

California used to be all over the place. In 1872 Grant flipped the state from Buchanan by 122 votes. In the Wilson era the state was very tight and was easily flipped by Harding. The state would continue to go back and forth through the 20th century, at one point reaching a margin of 4 million R votes in 1988 that would be erased in 2000. In that year the margin was 68811, while now the Democratic margin is 17 million, good for D+8.4.

Colorado

Republicans 1880-1896
Democrats 1896-1928
Republicans 1928-1936
Democrats 1936-1952
Republicans 1952-present

The narrowest hold was for Democrats in 1924, by a margin of 0.57. 1944's margin of 0.41 was largest in raw vote totals and was boosted by 1948, but Republicans flipped the state right back with their first national win since 1928. Republicans have held the state since, and held the majority from 1972-2008. Trump's disastrous performance in 2020 reduced the GOP margin from over a million votes (since 1984) to only about 600k. It's still going to take some more big wins for the Democrats to actually flip the state though. The current margin is R+1.8.

Connecticut

Republicans 1856-2008
Democrats 2008-present

Obama '08 flipped the state from R+0.89 to D+0.47. Biden almost managed to get the raw vote margin above 1 million, which Bush Sr gained and lost in his two campaigns. The current margin is D+3.

Delaware

Democrats 1868-1920
Republicans 1920-1964
Democrats 1964-1968
Republicans 1968-2004
Democrats 2004-present

Landslide Lyndon flipped this state with only 920 votes to spare. Nixon propped it back up with 6600 and much more in 1972. The state was flipped narrowly by Kerry '04 by 7373 votes or D+0.15. Biden, the first president from this state, has increased that margin to D+5.

Florida

Democrats 1872-1972
Republicans 1972-present

In 1948, Democrats lead in Florida by over a million votes, but this margin would immediately begin to decline. Nixon's landslide win almost inverted a raw vote margin of nearly 600k (D+5.4 to R+4). Reagan '80 reached 1 million, Reagan '84 2 million, and Bush Sr. 3 million. The state has never cracked 4 million and the R margin has declined from R+11.3 to R+4 but it's still a Republican leaning state.

Georgia

Democrats 1868-present

Unless there's a big Republican landslide in 2024, this will be the only Democratic leaning deep southern state remaining then. The highest raw vote margin was 2.7 million in 1960, as Democrats generally had about 69% of the vote since 1940. Democrats lost their majority in 2004 and dropped below 1 million in 2008. Their raw vote margin has increased above 400k again for Biden but their percentage margin has dropped below D+1.

Hawaii

Democrats 1960-present

Lowest margin was D+4.2 (+77k) in 1984. Now it's D+18.7 (+1mil).

Idaho

Populists 1892-1896
Democrats 1896-1904
Republicans 1904-present

Lowest R margin since 1904 was in 1948 at R+1 (+20k). The raw margin reached over 1 million in 1996 and 2 million in 2016. It's currently R+23.1 (+2.4mil)

Illinois

Republicans 1860-2012
Democrats 2012-present

Highest raw vote margin for the GOP was in 1988 when it was R+5 (+4.4 mil). This quickly declined until Obama '08 reduced a margin of 1.8 million to 382k, then more than reversed it in 2012 for 500k. H Clinton and Biden have increased it further to D+1.9 (+2.5 mil).

Indiana

Democrats 1856-1864
Republicans 1864-present

While the margin dipped below R+1 during the Wilson era, Republicans never lost control. The current margin of R+9.7 (+6 mil) is the highest ever.

Iowa

Republicans 1856-present

Highest raw vote margin was in 1984, R+10.5 (2.7 mil). It declined afterwards but Trump showed up to keep it well above 2 million. It is now R+6.2 (2.4 mil).

Kansas

Republicans 1864-present

Currently R+18.3 (+5.2 mil)

Kentucky

Democrats 1864-2004
Republicans 2004-present

Highest Democratic raw vote margin was in 1964, D+7.4 (+1.2 mil). It declined afterwards until Dubya flipped it in 2004 by a margin of 46.5k. Now the margin is R+5 (+1.9 mil).

Louisiana

Democrats 1868-2016
Republicans 2016-present

Highest Democratic raw vote margin was in 1960, D+34 (+1.9 mil). It slowly declined to 1 million in 2000 and declined much quicker after that. In 2012, Democrats held a lead of D+0.31 (+80k) which Trump quickly dispatched. Now the margin is R+2.4 (+718k)

Maine

Republicans 1856-present

Highest Republican raw vote margin was in 1988, R+14.2 (+1.2 mil). Now it's only R+4.1 (+580k). That's still more than the number of votes Biden got in 2020.

Maryland

Democrats 1868-present

Lowest Democratic raw vote margin was in 1928, D+0.6 (+25k). Now it's D+11.6 (+4.6 mil) the first time it has crossed D+10 since 1884.

Mass.

Republicans 1856-1964
Democrats 1964-present

Highest Republican raw vote margin was in 1924, R+25 (+1.8 mil). In 1960 it was R+4.8 (1.2 mil), this was destroyed by Landslide Lyndon with only 4597 votes to spare. Biden almost crossed 8 million, it is currently D+11.8 (+7.9 mil).

Michigan

Republicans 1856-present

Highest Republican raw vote margin was in 1988, R+6.6 (3.5 mil). Biden's narrow win over Trump in 2020 has brought under 1 million. It is now R+1 (+916k). This is still a higher raw vote margin than it was in 1916.

Minnesota

Republicans 1860-1980
Democrats 1980-present

Highest Republican raw vote margin was in 1928, R+25.4 (+1.5 mil). Carter brought it down from a quarter million to 7764 in 1976. Ironically his doomed bid for reelection would flip the state. Kerry '04 increased the margin to one million, and after Biden it is now D+3.6 (+1.8 mil)

Mississippi

Democrats 1872-2008
Republicans 2008-present

Highest Democratic raw vote margin was in 1960, D+49.6 (+1.6 mil). It declined at a faster and faster rate until it was down to 51.5k in 2004. Poetically, this racially divided state flipped when Democrats nominated a black man. It is now R+4 (+699k).

Missouri

Democrats 1856-2020
Republicans 2020-present

Highest Democratic raw vote margin was in 1964, D+6.9 (+1.9 mil). It has only recently begun declining in earnest, as it was still at 911k in 2008 but plummeted afterwards. In 2016 it was 129k, and Trump more than inverted that in 2020. It is now R+0.56 (337k).

Montana

Republicans 1892-1896
Democrats 1896-1924
Republicans 1924-1936
Democrats 1936-1980
Republicans 1980-present

Highest Democratic raw vote margin was in 1948, D+7.9 (+176.4k). Reagan turned into a 17.9k Democratic remnant into a 70.9k Republican advantage, and now the margin is R+7.2 (+653.1k).

Nebraska

Republicans 1868-present

Lowest Republican percentile margin was R+5.2 in 1936. Now it's R+19.06, which it reached in 2016 and voted exactly that way in 2020. Raw vote margin is rounded up to 3.6 million.

Nevada

Republicans 1864-1916
Democrats 1916-1920
Republicans 1920-1932
Democrats 1932-1972
Republicans 1972-present

Highest Democratic margin was in 1948, D+7.6 (+43k). Highest Republican margin was in 2004, R+6.6 (+320.5k). After a string of Democratic wins since then, the current GOP margin is R+0.76 (+70.9k).

New Hampshire

Republicans 1856-present

Highest Republican margin was in 1988, R+13.8 (+863k). It hasn't declined by much since. Now it's R+5.5 (+635k).

New Jersey

Democrats 1856-1896
Republicans 1896-2020
Democrats 2020-present

Highest Republican margin was in 1988, R+7.4 (+3.4 mil). In 2016 it was cut to under 235k, and Biden more than inverted that. Now it is D+0.65 (+490k), the first Democratic lead since the 19th century.

New Mexico

Democrats 1912-1920
Republicans 1920-1932
Democrats 1932-1972
Republicans 1972-2012
Democrats 2012-present

Highest Republican margin was in 1988, R+4.9 (+249k). In 2008 it was reduced to just under 40k, and in 2012 it was almost exactly inverted. Biden's big win in 2020 has broken the record for highest Democratic margin, D+1.9 (+205k).

New York

Republicans 1856-1968
Democrats 1968-1972
Republicans 1972-1996
Democrats 1996-present

Highest Republican margin was in 1956, R+4.3 (+3.15 mil). In 1968, Humphery briefly managed to flip the state, but the landslide of 1972 took care of that, turning a quarter million Democratic margin into a Republican one of nearly a million. In 1992 Bill Clinton turned a Republican margin of over a million into just 33k, and nearly reached 2 million when he was reelected. Now the Democratic margin is D+6.8 (+12.6 mil)

North Carolina

Democrats 1868-2004
Republicans 2004-present

Highest Democratic margin was in 1964, D+16.6 (+2.36 mil). In 2004 Dubya was able to flip a margin of 347k against to 88.5k in favor. Now the margin is the best ever for the GOP at R+0.74 (+414k).

North Dakota

Populists 1892-1896
Republicans 1896-present

Current margin is R+16.8 (+1.3 mil).

Ohio

Republicans 1856-present

Current margin is R+4.5 (+5.2 mil). Oddly enough, this is the same percentile margin as in 2008.

Oklahoma

Democrats 1908-1928
Republicans 1928-1932
Democrats 1932-1976
Republicans 1976-present

Highest Democratic margin was in 1948, D+14.5 (+895k). By 1972 this had been reduced slightly to 516k, which Nixon almost annihilated but Democrats retained a margin of 3856. Thus it was left to Gerald Ford to finish it off while losing, creating a positive margin of 9410 that Reagan will greatly expand upon. Now the GOP enjoys a margin of R+14 (+3.9 mil).

Oregon

Republicans 1860-2008
Democrats 2008-present

Highest Republican margin was in 1984, R+4.4 (+542k). In 2004 it was reduced to 146k, and Obama '08 inverted that to 153k. Now Biden has created a margin of D+3.5 (+971k).

Pennsylvania

Democrats 1856-1860
Republicans 1860-present

Highest Republican margin was hilariously enough in 1932, R+20 (+4.93 mil). The GOP reached 4.9 million again in 1956 but failed to reach the exact number they got in 1932. The current margin is R+1.9 (+2.56 mil)

Rhode Island

Republicans 1856-1960
Democrats 1960-present

Highest Republican margin was in 1924, R+21.5 (+231.6k). In 1956 Ike managed to increase the margin from 18k to 82k, more than the 63k of 1944, but Kennedy won the state bigly and created a margin of 28.6k. Now the margin is D+12.8 (+1.34 mil) with Obama '08 the one to reach a million.

South Carolina

Republicans 1868-1884
Democrats 1884-2000
Republicans 2000-present

Highest Democratic margin was D+37.4 (+1.1 mil) in 1960. By 1996 Dole manage to reduce the remainder to 74.6k. Dubya turned that into a GOP margin of 146k. Trump was the first to reach a million, and now the margin is R+6.3 (+1.4 mil).

South Dakota

Republicans 1892-present

Current margin is R+13.8 (+1.2 mil).

Tennessee

Democrats 1872-2004
Republicans 2004-present

Highest Democratic margin was D+9.8 (+1.1 mil) in 1964. After a long period of decline, it was only 206k in 2000. Bush then flipped it in his reelection with a margin of 142k. The margin has been greatly expanded since, it is currently R+6.2 (+2.4 mil).

Texas

Democrats 1872-2004
Republicans 2004-present

Highest Democratic raw vote margin was D+25 (+5.75 mil) in 1968. In 2000 the remains of that were reduced to 79.4k. Bush 2004 easily disposed of that and added 1.6 million on top. Current margin is R+4.88 (5.3 mil), a swing of R+0.08 from 2016.

Utah

Democrats 1896-1908
Republicans 1908-1916
Democrats 1916-1924
Republicans 1924-1936
Democrats 1936-1968
Republicans 1968-present

It's surprising a state like this has such a history of party switching, when you consider the type of place it is now. The large Democratic margin was in 1948, D+9.2 (+213k). In 1964 it was only 59.6k, and Nixon '68 flipped it over to 22.5k. Utah never looked back and now the margin is R+23.7 (+3.5 mil).

Vermont

Republicans 1856-present

The highest Republican margin was in 1988, at R+24.9 (+941k). As Vermont has since become a very liberal state, the margin is now only R+4.9 (+305.8k) but it will still take more time for Democrats to flip the votes of generations of Yankee Farmers.

Virginia

Democrats 1872-1980
Republicans 1980-present

Highest Democratic margin was in 1948, at D+19.7 (+1.1 mil). In 1976 it was only 199k, and in 1980 Reagan's big win took care of that an added 38.5k on top. Highest Republican margin was in 2004, at R+5.5 (+1.7 mil). Since then the state has become blurer, especially in 2020 when Biden took out a big chunk, but the current margin of R+1.4 (+623.3k) is still higher than 1984.

Washington

Republicans 1892-1896
Democrats 1896-1900
Republicans 1900-1944
Democrats 1944-1956
Republicans 1956-1964
Democrats 1964-1972
Republicans 1972-1996
Democrats 1996-present

Highest Republican margin was in 1928, at R+22.3 (+588.7k). 1984's margin of R+2.7 (+521.6k) is second place. In 1968 the margin was 267k in favor of Democrats, Nixon replaced that with a GOP margin of 1816. In 1996 Clinton replaced a GOP margin of 230.1k with 52.5k. The current margin is D+6 (2.7 mil).

West Virginia

Republicans 1864-1880
Democrats 1880-1896
Republicans 1896-1936
Democrats 1936-2020
Republicans 2020-present

Highest Democratic margin was in 1968 at D+5.7 (+690k). Highest GOP margin used to be in 1928 at R+5.7 (+230k) but Trump 2020 replaced a surviving Democratic margin of 61k with 248k.

Wisconsin

Republicans 1856-present

Highest Republican margin was in 1984 at R+4.5 (+1.4 mil). Current margin is R+0.58 (+320k) which is just about the same as in 2012.

Wyoming

Republicans 1892-present

Current margin is R+23.7 (+1 million). This is the first time the GOP has reached a million here.

[Orser67]

The faithless electors are mostly divided between the two parties the electors were originally assigned to. The New Hampshire faithless elector to JQA in 1820 is given to the Federalists, as said elector was clearly pro-Federalist and probably only left because the party was no longer viable. This means JQA's electors are from three parties, the Federalists, the Democratic Republicans (the party he actually ran for, but this also includes Jackson '24), and the Whigs (as merged with the National Republicans).

Hey that's a cool factoid. I took a look at this Wiki page, and it looks Henry Clay can also make the same claim.

Given the other combinations, you could also reasonably combine the Constitutional Union with the Whig Party; personally I don't see it as any more of a stretch than e.g. putting Washington (particularly the 1789 candidacy) with the Federalists, or grouping all Southern Democrats together.

Cool map overall, thanks for sharing.