can someone explain why newcomers are making texas more republican?

[freepcrusher]

I've heard this argument on twitter before. But it's not something that I feel is backed up by maps. The most hardcore republican districts in the state are the old Jim Turner seat in east Texas and the Charlie Stenholm seat in central/west Texas. Both probably have/had the highest percentage of native texans in there districts. Meanwhile,  the places in Texas that have the most erosion in republican numbers have been in places like Williamson or Collin Counties where you probably don't have as many native Texans living there.

The one theory that could make the theory make sense about Texas newcomers voting red is that it may be the "born in Texas, parents born elsewhere" demographic that is voting hard left.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The answer is demographic changes. Collin county in 2010 was 63% non hispanic white, today its slightly under 51%, and the county is nearly 20% asian. White people moving to the Texas suburbs are likely conservative, but the hispanic and asian growth in those areas are shifting the metros blue.

[ottermax]

Very few people move BECAUSE of politics.

Florida seems like a place where people are moving because of politics, but I think it's more related to culture than politics - many of the new Floridians are disproportionately white, older, and wealthier which just favors conservative politics. Many of the newcomers to Texas are younger and more diverse, more educated, which favors liberal politics.

Also if you look at the sources of migration, Florida is getting more people from New York, Ohio, and Georgia and other Eastern states where generally most of the migration is politically right-leaning. Also Florida isn't necessarily cheaper than these places so people are relatively well off when they go to Florida.

Meanwhile Texas is gaining migrants much more from California and then a mix of states. This mix generally is going to favor left-leaning migration overall because they aren't leaving to retiree but mostly for work and cost of living. For many migrants to Texas they are fleeing for opportunity not necessarily to enjoy their wealth.

Finally, anecdotally I know so many Californians or recent immigrants who see Texas as a state of appeal because they see it as purple now. I never hear Florida come up as a place of upwardly mobile, liberal leaning, or non-white people discussed as a place of opportunity.