Ranking the States Which Picked the Presidents | 1789–2020

[DS0816]

Here is a report on the history of states having picked United States presidential election winners:

RANKING THE STATES
WHICH HAVE PICKED THE PRESIDENTS
1789–2020

• Yellow (solid): 90s percentile range
• Orange (solid): 80s percentile range
• Orange (light): 70s percentile range
• Green (solid): 60s percentile range
• Green (light): 50s percentile range

RANK | STATE | CARRIAGE | PERCENTAGE

01 New Mexico 26 of 28 cycles 92.85%
02 Illinois 43 of 51 cycles 84.31%
03 California 36 of 43 cycles 83.72%
04 New York 48.5 of 58 cycles 83.62%
05 Pennsylvania 49 of 59 cycles 83.05%
06 Ohio 45 of 55 cycles 81.81%
07 Nevada 32.5 of 40 cycles 81.25%
08 Arizona 22 of 28 cycles 78.57%
09 Wisconsin 34.5 of 44 cycles 78.40%
10 Minnesota 31 of 41 cycles 75.60%
— Oregon 31 of 41 cycles 75.60%
12 Michigan 35.5 of 47 cycles 75.53%
13 New Hampshire 44.5 of 59 cycles 75.42%
14 Indiana 39 of 52 cycles 75.00%
— West Virginia 30 of 40 cycles 75.00%
16 Missouri 38 of 51 cycles 74.50%
17 Iowa 32.5 of 44 cycles 73.86%
18 New Jersey 43.5 of 59 cycles 73.72%
19 Florida 31.5 of 43 cycles 73.25%
20 Montana 24 of 33 cycles 72.72%
— Washington 24 of 33 cycles 72.72%
22 Rhode Island 42 of 58 cycles 72.41%
23 Utah 23 of 32 cycles 71.87%
24 Colorado 26.5 of 37 cycles 71.62%
25 Connecticut 42 of 59 cycles 71.18%
26 Tennessee 39.5 of 56 cycles 70.53%
27 North Dakota 23 of 33 cycles 69.69%
— Idaho 23 of 33 cycles 69.69%
29 Maryland 41 of 59 cycles 69.49%
30 Virginia 39.5 of 57 cycles 69.29%
— North Carolina 39.5 of 57 cycles 69.29%
32 Oklahoma 20 of 29 cycles 68.96%
• AVERAGE: U.S. President (1789–2020: 59 election cycles)…
 1,564 carried states (from 2,270 voting states) 68.89%
33 Hawaii 11 of 16 cycles 68.75%
34 Maine 35 of 51 cycles 68.62%
35 Massachusetts 40 of 59 cycles 67.79%
36 Kansas 27 of 40 cycles 67.50%
37 Wyoming 22 of 33 cycles 66.66%
38 Delaware 39 of 59 cycles 66.10%
39 Vermont 38 of 58 cycles 65.51%
40 Nebraska 25 of 39 cycles 64.10%
41 Kentucky 37 of 58 cycles 63.79%
42 Louisiana 32.5 of 51 cycles 63.72%
43 Georgia 35 of 58 cycles 60.34%
44 Arkansas 27 of 45 cycles 60.00%
45 Texas 25 of 42 cycles 59.52%
46 South Carolina 34 of 58 cycles 58.62%
47 South Dakota 19 of 33 cycles 57.57%
48 Alaska 09 of 16 cycles 56.25%
49 Mississippi 26.5 of 49 cycles 54.08%
50 Alabama 26.5 of 50 cycles 53.00%



CYCLE | YEAR | CARRIAGE | PERCENTAGE

01 1789 George Washington (10 of 10) 100.00%
02 1792 George Washington (10 of 10) 100.00%
03 1796 John Adams (F, 09 of 16) 56.25%
04 1800 Thomas Jefferson (D–R, 09 of 16) 56.25%
05 1804 Thomas Jefferson (D–R, 15 of 17) 88.23%
06 1808 James Madison (D–R, 12 of 17) 70.58%
07 1812 James Madison (D–R, 11 of 18) 61.11%
08 1816 James Monroe (D–R, 16 of 19) 84.21%
09 1820 James Monroe (D–R, 24 of 24) 100.00%
10 1824 John Quincy Adams (D–R, 07 of 24) 29.16%
11 1828 Andrew Jackson (D, 15 of 24) 62.50%
12 1832 Andrew Jackson (D, 16 of 24) 66.66%
13 1836 Martin Van Buren (D, 15 of 26) 57.69%
14 1840 William Henry Harrison (W, 19 of 26) 73.07%
15 1844 James Polk (D, 15 of 26) 57.69%
16 1848 Zachary Taylor (W, 15 of 30) 50.00%
17 1852 Franklin Pierce (D, 27 of 31) 87.09%
18 1856 James Buchanan (D, 19 of 31) 61.29%
19 1860 Abraham Lincoln (R, 17 of 32) 53.12%
20 1864 Abraham Lincoln (R, 22 of 25) 88.00%
21 1868 Ulysses Grant (R, 26 of 34) 76.47%
22 1872 Ulysses Grant (R, 31 of 37) 83.78%
23 1876 Rutherford Hayes (R, 21 of 38) 55.26%
24 1880 James Garfield (R, 19 of 38) 50.00%
25 1884 Grover Cleveland (D, 20 of 38) 52.63%
26 1888 Benjamin Harrison (R, 20 of 38) 52.63%
27 1892 Grover Cleveland (D, 24 of 44) 54.54%
28 1896 William McKinley (R, 23 of 45) 51.11%
29 1900 William McKinley (R, 28 of 45) 62.22%
30 1904 Teddy Roosevelt (R, 32 of 45) 71.11%
31 1908 William Howard Taft (R, 29 of 46) 63.04%
32 1912 Woodrow Wilson (D, 40 of 48) 83.33%
33 1916 Woodrow Wilson (D, 30 of 48) 62.50%
34 1920 Warren Harding (R, 37 of 48) 77.08%
35 1924 Calvin Coolidge (R, 35 of 48) 72.916%
36 1928 Herbert Hoover (R, 40 of 48) 83.33%
37 1932 Franklin Roosevelt (D, 42 of 48) 87.50%
38 1936 Franklin Roosevelt (D, 46 of 48) 95.83%
39 1940 Franklin Roosevelt (D, 38 of 48) 79.166%
40 1944 Franklin Roosevelt (D, 36 of 48) 75.00%
41 1948 Harry Truman (D, 28 of 48) 58.33%
42 1952 Dwight Eisenhower (R, 39 of 48) 81.25%
43 1956 Dwight Eisenhower (R, 41 of 48) 85.41%
44 1960 John Kennedy (D, 22 of 50) 44.00%
45 1964 Lyndon Johnson (D, 44 of 50) 88.00%
46 1968 Richard Nixon (R, 32 of 50) 64.00%
47 1972 Richard Nixon (R, 49 of 50) 98.00%
48 1976 Jimmy Carter (D, 23 of 50) 46.00%
49 1980 Ronald Reagan (R, 44 of 50) 88.00%
50 1984 Ronald Reagan (R, 49 of 50) 98.00%
51 1988 George Bush (R, 40 of 50) 80.00%
52 1992 Bill Clinton (D, 32 of 50) 64.00%
53 1996 Bill Clinton (D, 31 of 50) 62.00%
54 2000 George W. Bush (R, 30 of 50) 60.00%
55 2004 George W. Bush (R, 31 of 50) 62.00%
56 2008 Barack Obama (D, 28 of 50) 56.00%
57 2012 Barack Obama (D, 26 of 50) 52.00%
58 2016 Donald Trump (R, 30 of 50) 60.00%
59 2020 Joe Biden (D, 25 of 50) 50.00%

Cumulative Totals:
• 1,564 cumulative carried states, from 2,270 cumulative participating states, is 68.89% of cumulative carried states.
Today’s Standard:
• This is a historical average of 34.44 [34] carried states.


Explanation:

The scores, for each state, is based on this: For every United States presidential election cycle in which a given state [statewide] carried for the winner, it gets full credit; in elections in which the Electoral College and the U.S. Popular Vote wins did not go to the same person—with five such past occurrences in 1824, 1876, 1888, 2000, and 2016—a state which sided with the popular-vote winner gets half-credit. (After all: States are not obligated to have to align the Electoral College and the U.S. Popular Vote wins to the same person. So, a popular-vote state winner earns some credit.) This is for the sake of determining, historically, how reliable each state has been with carrying for U.S. presidential election winners.


Related topics:

• Ranking the States Which Picked the Presidents | 1789–2012
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=222186.msg4783698#msg4783698

• Ranking the States Which Picked the Presidents | 1789–2016
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=254206.msg5424467#msg5424467

[Mr. Smith]

Pretty curious how only Carter and JFK have won with less than half the states. And also JQ Adams in 1824, but that's omitting the House Count, which I think does give him a majority.

In which case, the number of elections where the winner lost the popular vote matches the number of elections where the winner didn't get a majority of states. But there hasn't been one yet where the winner lost the popular vote AND the majority of states.[Excluding Adams.]

[DS0816]

Pretty curious how only Carter and JFK have won with less than half the states....

It has to do with the average number of electoral votes per carried state.

If the Republicans-vs.-Democrats were totally equal with each other in terms of what states, and their electoral votes, are aligned to each—they would average 10.76 electoral votes per carried state. That is: 538 electoral votes divided by 50 states (including District of Columbia) for an average 10.76 electoral votes per carried state.

Winning Democrats, for a few decades, have been north of that 10.76 and, since 1992, they have averaged 12 electoral votes per carried state. The averages were: Bill Clinton, 11 and 12; Barack Obama, 13 and 12; Joe Biden, 12. Go back to, say, 1960 John Kennedy and he averaged 13 electoral votes per carried state. A 1976 Jimmy Carter averaged 12 electoral votes per carried state. So, they were able to reach 270 with less than 50 percent of the nation’s states in their columns.