European Parliament elections, June 2024

[Diouf]

Renew (Liberals, Moderates, Social Liberals): They should get at least three seats, and likely four. Both Liberals and Moderates have quite strong line-ups. From the three seats, I think Liberals will get 2 and Moderates 1. A fourth seat could be open between all three parties, perhaps with a second Moderate a bit more likely than a Social Liberals one or a third Liberal.

This electoral alliance now official. So three major electoral alliances are now in place. It seems certain that Red-Green Alliance will run on its own. Then there's DPP and Denmark Democrats left. I haven't heard any rumours about a potential alliance there. Even though both are Eurosceptic, DPP is it to a far bigger degree, and Støjberg is very focused on keeping DD as a party where government participation is possible. Also Denmark Democrats might currently feel quite hopeful that they can get enough votes on themselves to get a seat, considering their national polls.

[Storr]

LOL:

"BREAKING: Charles Michel to pull out of EU election race"

"Michel’s surprise decision to run in the European parliamentary elections in June, which would have meant leaving his post months before the end of his term, prompted furious reactions from EU officials, European diplomats and Parliament.

Officials perceived his surprise announcement as a signal that he attached more importance to his political future than to his current role as head of the European Council."

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1750944543011156371?s=20

[Diouf]

First Danish EU poll by Epinion for Altinget and DR

Social Democrats 22% 4 seats
SPP 12% 2 seats
Liberals 11% 1 2 seats
Liberal Alliance 10% 1 seat
Denmark Democrats 9% 1 seat
Red-Green Alliance 7% 1 seat
DPP 7% 1 seat
Moderates 7% 1 seat
Conservatives 6 1 seat
Social Liberals 6% 1 seat
Alternative 1% 0 seats

With both Denmark Democrats, Red-Green Alliance and DPP making it above the threshold, there is one less seat than 'expected' to distribute among the three electoral alliances. It's quite narrow, but in this poll it means that the EPP alliance only gets two seats, so Liberal Alliance only end with one. But relatively few vores should have been moved, to make it the fourth Social Democrat seat disappearing instead.

But the campaign hasn't started yet, so much can happen. But at least interesting to see DPP already ahead of their usual national polling.

[Logical]

Is the People's Movement against the EU dead?

[Storr]

One of the key figures in Qatargate (we need to stop adding -gate to name of every scandal) Greek MEP Eva Kaili decided to not run for reelection. I doubt it was a coincidence the announcement came three days after she was stripped of her parliamentary immunity.

https://www.politico.eu/article/eva-kaili-qatargate-scandal-eu-wont-run-in-eu-election/

Also this isn't a huge deal but a Sweden Democrat MEP threatened that his party would leave ECR if Fidesz (Victor Orban's party) joined the group. The Sweden Democrats have 3 MEPs while Fidesz has 12.

https://www.politico.eu/article/sweden-democrats-threaten-to-quit-right-wing-eu-group-erc-if-orban-joins/

[Diouf]

Is the People's Movement against the EU dead?

As an electoral entity, yes. After failing to get in last time, they decided to instead become an organization participating in the public debate, in the same way as e.g. the European Movement.

It would also take the collection of more than 70 000 signatures to be able to run, which would require a lot of effort.

[Flyersfan232]

One of the key figures in Qatargate (we need to stop adding -gate to name of every scandal) Greek MEP Eva Kaili decided to not run for reelection. I doubt it was a coincidence the announcement came three days after she was stripped of her parliamentary immunity.

https://www.politico.eu/article/eva-kaili-qatargate-scandal-eu-wont-run-in-eu-election/

Also this isn't a huge deal but a Sweden Democrat MEP threatened that his party would leave ECR if Fidesz (Victor Orban's party) joined the group. The Sweden Democrats have 3 MEPs while Fidesz has 12.

https://www.politico.eu/article/sweden-democrats-threaten-to-quit-right-wing-eu-group-erc-if-orban-joins/

think it has to do with the swedish nato membership thing where would sd meps go though?

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/partisocialiste/status/1755899600743882780

Glucksmann will lead the PS/Place publique list in France again. He is the most médiatised S&S french MEP but remains controversial.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Uschi, who has never been nominated by her party or parliamentary group, is going to seek re-election as President of the European Commission.

[Open Source Intelligence]

This article is something.

https://www.politico.eu/article/ursula-von-der-leyen-ukraine-election-tightrope/

The naivete expressed is amazing. "She is using her official duties to run for reelection and that's not fair." Have these people never done anything in politics their whole lives?

[Estrella]

La France Insoumise refused an alliance with NPA because the latter supports admitting Ukraine to the EU.

Gotta love the way Western European leftists preach about solidarity but the second they remember Eastern Europeans exist they turn into Thatcherite ghouls. Though to be fair, this is a bigger problem in France than elsewhere. French left has always cared more about sucking Russian dick than about actual left-wing goals — Rochet and Marchais could tell you a lot about that.

[Zinneke]

Given the farmer protests will likely build up to reinforce the EPP, it's worth reminding this:

https://twitter.com/alemannoEU/status/1762894260133564544

[Diouf]

Ipsos for Euronews has polled a number of countries for the EP elections:

https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/europeennes-vers-une-progression-de-la-droite-radicale-au-parlement-europeen

Denmark:
Social Democrats 21.0%, 4 seats
Liberal Alliance 13.0%, 2 seats
SPP 12.0%, 2 seats
Liberals 10.5%, 2 seats
Denmark Democrats 8.5%, 1 seat
Red-Green Alliance 8.0%, 1 seat
Moderates 7.0%, 1 seat
Conservatives 6.0%, 1 seat
Social Liberals 6.0%, 1 seat
DPP 5.0%, 0 seats
Alternative 2.0%, 0 seats

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1770484817466892744

[Mike88]

Portugal's poll:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1770575353691451472

PSD is going to run in a coalition with CDS, just like it did in the general elections, and after CHEGA's strong result, there is a debate of how strong the party could be in the EP elections. The high turnout in the 10 March general election, benefited clearly CHEGA but could the same happen in the EP elections? Turnout is usually low in these elections and this year, the EP election is in a holiday week for millions of Portuguese.

[Flyersfan232]

Portugal's poll:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1770575353691451472

PSD is going to run in a coalition with CDS, just like it did in the general elections, and after CHEGA's strong result, there is a debate of how strong the party could be in the EP elections. The high turnout in the 10 March general election, benefited clearly CHEGA but could the same happen in the EP elections? Turnout is usually low in these elections and this year, the EP election is in a holiday week for millions of Portuguese.

when do they offically merge?

[Mike88]

PSD is going to run in a coalition with CDS, just like it did in the general elections, and after CHEGA's strong result, there is a debate of how strong the party could be in the EP elections. The high turnout in the 10 March general election, benefited clearly CHEGA but could the same happen in the EP elections? Turnout is usually low in these elections and this year, the EP election is in a holiday week for millions of Portuguese.

when do they offically merge?

Not sure about a merge, but a permanent alliance like CDU-CSU in Germany or the Coalition in Australia is a real possibility.

[Flyersfan232]

PSD is going to run in a coalition with CDS, just like it did in the general elections, and after CHEGA's strong result, there is a debate of how strong the party could be in the EP elections. The high turnout in the 10 March general election, benefited clearly CHEGA but could the same happen in the EP elections? Turnout is usually low in these elections and this year, the EP election is in a holiday week for millions of Portuguese.

when do they offically merge?

Not sure about a merge, but a permanent alliance like CDU-CSU in Germany or the Coalition in Australia is a real possibility.

why?

[Mike88]

PSD is going to run in a coalition with CDS, just like it did in the general elections, and after CHEGA's strong result, there is a debate of how strong the party could be in the EP elections. The high turnout in the 10 March general election, benefited clearly CHEGA but could the same happen in the EP elections? Turnout is usually low in these elections and this year, the EP election is in a holiday week for millions of Portuguese.

when do they offically merge?

Not sure about a merge, but a permanent alliance like CDU-CSU in Germany or the Coalition in Australia is a real possibility.

why?

Local factors mainly. There are areas of the country where PSD and CDS don't have very good relationships, just look at what happened in Madeira, and a merge would create problems, in my opinion.

[Open Source Intelligence]

http://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-france-eu-election-cracks-the-whip-as-centrist-eu-campaign-stutters/

IHOP/France

National Rally - 30%
Renew Coalition (Macron-led) - 21%
Socialist-led Coalition - 11%

[Diouf]

As expected Denmark Democrats will join ECR, if they get elected

https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/udland/eu/danmarksdemokraterne-har-fundet-sine-allierede-i-eu-og-en-af-dem-er

[Mike88]

Portugal poll, from Aximage to JN/DN newspapers and TSF radio:

Vote share %: (compared with 2019)

31.3% PS (-2.1)
24.8% PSD/CDS/PPM (-3.3)
18.4% CHEGA (+16.9)
  5.9% BE (-3.9)
  5.8% IL (+4.9)
  4.1% CDU (-2.8 )
  3.6% Livre (+1.8 )
  1.8% PAN (-3.3)
  4.3% Others/Invalid (-8.2)

Poll conducted bewteen 12 and 16 April 2024. Polled 805 votes. MoE of 3.40%.

This poll has very weird crosstabs: PS winning the male vote by 12% and AD and PS tied in the female vote; PS is second in the youth vote and AD leading in the Porto metro area, but behind the PS in the rest of the North. But, then again, it's Aximage, so, whatever.

[Helsinkian]

Finland (15 seats) poll (Verian for Puoluebarometri):

NCP 22%
SDP 17%
Finns 14%
Centre 12%
Green 11%
Left 9%
CD+Move 6%*
SPP 5%

* = electoral alliance

Mika Aaltola, who got 1.5% as an independent presidential candidate in January, will be an NCP candidate.

SPP's outgoing leader Anna-Maja Henriksson will be their prominent candidate. Same with Left Alliance's outgoing leader Li Andersson.

14% is what the Finns Party got in 2019 but that was lower than what the polls had predicted back then. While parliamentary election polls have often underestimated the party, in EU elections the polls have overestimated them.

The Finns Party have dropped one of their current MEPs, Teuvo Hakkarainen, as a candidate. The party hasn't given a reason, but he has had a fair share of controversies, and it's unclear how much actual work he's done in the parliament.

Finland's turnout the last time was in the low forties, and now that the election is in June instead of May, it probably won't be much better (Finns often have their summer holidays earlier than people in other countries).

All in all, I'm sure the NCP will finish first, even as the SDP currently leads the parliamentary polls.

[Mike88]

Portugal: PS and AD head list candidates announced. Former health minister Marta Temido for the PS; TV pundit Sebastião Bugalho for AD.

https://twitter.com/Lusa_noticias/status/1782480863772438677

Marta Temido will be head of the PS list for the European Championships

https://twitter.com/cnnportugal/status/1782485031195160962

Sebastião Bugalho will be the head of AD's list for the European Elections. CNN Portugal knows that the invitation was made by Luís Montenegro and Sebastião Bugalho's name could be announced this Monday.

[Helsinkian]

In their newly-written election programme, the Finns Party have dropped their previous policy which defined Finland's exit from the EU as the party's "long-term strategic goal". Instead, the programme now merely mentions that Finland must be prepared for a scenario in which the EU is dissolved.