European Parliament elections, June 2024

[Oryxslayer]

Even if you dislike the government, there are several other options available.

And what other options cater to the anti-immigration attitudes that are the defining feature of practically every AfD voter?

BSW is the obvious answer, which is why there are expected to be in a solid third in the East. But for a good number of reasons BSW have not escaped the mantle of a protest party (and may remain one), perceptions the AfD shrugged off close to a decade ago now.

Some interesting trends from Germany. First of all, the AfD did incredibly well among younger voters whereas the CDU has to hope some kind of medical miracle will ensure its voters stick around for a few more extra years.

Isn’t that the exact same graph that’s been true for years? The AFD do worst among the elderly and best among the middle aged. They did only 1% better among the under 25s than they did among Germans as a whole.

Yep, and throw the SPD into the same group as parties whose support increases with age. Though at times there have been parties getting even more youth votes like the Greens and FDP. Seems a bit weird, until you realize that German party fragmentation is a new phenomenon. The older you are, the more likely various networks, organizations, and life experiences have created ties to a party that will not easily break. We call this the "pensioner party" phenomenon when it frequently happens to the (Social-Democratic) left.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is it really that surprising though?

I mean, no, I don't live under a rock and these results are perfectly in line with pre-election polls. Doesn't change the fact that it's dire.

[Cassius]

Even if you dislike the government, there are several other options available.

And what other options cater to the anti-immigration attitudes that are the defining feature of practically every AfD voter?

Moreover, if you don’t like the government what’s the point of voting for the CDU (the only sizeable ‘mainstream’ alternative) when you know that it’s going to end up in coalition with some combination of the existing government parties, which will most likely be the SPD or the Greens (or even both!), with those parties likely calling most of the shots (as happened in Merkel’s later Grand Coalitions).

[Beezer]

Isn’t that the exact same graph that’s been true for years? The AFD do worst among the elderly and best among the middle aged. They did only 1% better among the under 25s than they did among Germans as a whole.

Yes, the AfD has always been a part of the "middle aged". But it's never done particularly well among younger voters. Again, the party more than tripled its vote share among voters aged 16-24. I'd say that's a rather remarkable change.

[Beezer]

BSW is the obvious answer, which is why there are expected to be in a solid third in the East. But for a good number of reasons BSW have not escaped the mantle of a protest party (and may remain one), perceptions the AfD shrugged off close to a decade ago now.

The issue here might be that the BSW does not place its immigration attitudes front and center nor does it make an identitarian argument against immigration, as Wagenknecht has gone to great lengths to point out that her issue is with immigration driving down wages and that she would moreover certainly never entertain the idea of cooperating with the AfD. That'll allow you to win over some AfD-adjacent voters that feel uneasy about voting for the party but it will really never allow her or her party to make inroads into the AfD's base which sees immigration as the most serious threat today not because immigrants are taking their jobs and driving down wages but because they see open borders as bringing about the downfall of the west.

[Mike88]

Portugal exit polls: Perfect tie between PS and AD. CHEGA in fourth place behind IL.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Macron dissolves the National Assembly

I


did not see that coming

[Logical]

Dear Lord, Macron is either delusional or sucidial.

[Cassius]

Macron dissolves the National Assembly

I


did not see that coming

Suicidal?

[Storr]

Macron dissolves the National Assembly

I


did not see that coming

I guess he's trying to pull a Sanchez, mobilizing voters against the far-right?

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1799879805896142883?s=46

Wow

[kaoras]

Macron dissolves the National Assembly

I


did not see that coming

I guess he's trying to pull a Sanchez, mobilizing voters against the far-right?

Mr. President, I served with Pedro Sánchez. I knew Pedro Sánchez. Pedro Sánchez was a friend of mine. Mr. President, you're no Pedro Sánchez.

[Storr]

Poland, European Parliament election today:

Ipsos exit poll: seats count (53 total)

KO-EPP|RE|G/EFA: 21
PiS-ECR: 19
Kon~NI|ID: 6
TD PL2050/PSL-RE|EPP: 4
Lewica-S&D: 3

[Antonio the Sixth]

Macron dissolves the National Assembly

I


did not see that coming

I guess he's trying to pull a Sanchez, mobilizing voters against the far-right?

Seems that way, yeah. Of course Macron is no Sanchez...

[Oryxslayer]

Macron dissolves the National Assembly

I


did not see that coming

Suicidal?

Certainly short term, I guess the theory is that it won't be so long term.

Has to lead to some type of cohabitation, right? And that's I guess the idea. Let Le Pen or Melechon try and fail, while giving the people a taste of what could happen in 2027 of they let someone else into the Élysée. And maybe along the way you snuff out any revival attempts from PS and LR, reorienting the debate once more to 'Macron or Chaos.'

[oldtimer]

Macron dissolves the National Assembly

I


did not see that coming

No matter the result it breaks the de-facto Double French Elections that have been in place since 2002 which enabled the French President to automatically have a parliamentary majority too.

It would reopen the possibility of cohabitation governments.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

In a bit more positive news, the Swedish Exit Poll shows the Sweden Democrats dropping to fourth place. If it comes true it'll be first ever election where they get less support than last time.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Macron dissolves the National Assembly

I


did not see that coming

No matter the result it breaks the de-facto Double French Elections that have been in place since 2002 which enabled the French President to automatically have a parliamentary majority too.

It would reopen the possibility of cohabitation governments.

I'd say it does more than reopen the possibility. I think a Macron-Bardella cohabitation is the most likely outcome at this point (though by no means a certainty, of course).

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

SWEDEN EXIT POLL


(Change vs. 2019)

S = 23,1% (-0,4)
M = 17,3% (+0,5)
Mp = 15,7% (+4,2)
SD = 13,9% (-1,4)
V = 10,7% (+3,9)
C = 7,2% (-3,6)
KD = 6,1% (-2,5)
L = 4,2% (+0,1)
Other = 1,8% (+0,7)

It's an exit polls, so things could change, but shockingly bad performance for S given that they are in the oppostion and L within the margin of error, while strong performance for Mp and V. C and SD have no reason to be happy, while M can be somewhat happy that they tread water despite leading a deeply unpopular government.

[Cassius]

SWEDEN EXIT POLL


(Change vs. 2019)

S = 23,1% (-0,4)
M = 17,3% (+0,5)
Mp = 15,7% (+4,2)
SD = 13,9% (-1,4)
V = 10,7% (+3,9)
C = 7,2% (-3,6)
KD = 6,1% (-2,5)
L = 4,2% (+0,1)
Other = 1,8% (+0,7)

It's an exit polls, so things could change, but shockingly bad performance for S given that they are in the oppostion and L within the margin of error, while strong performance for Mp and V. C and SD have no reason to be happy, while M can be somewhat happy that they tread water despite leading a deeply unpopular government.

The results for S, SD and Mp are massively different to what they’re getting in the polls for the national elections, is this a turnout thing (it would have to be a very low and wildly unbalanced turnout if so)?

[Mike88]

Portugal exit polls: Perfect tie between PS and AD. CHEGA in fourth place behind IL.

RTP exit poll:

28-34% PS
28-33% AD
  8-12% IL
  8-12% CHEGA
    3-5% BE
    3-4% Livre
    3-5% CDU
    1-2% PAN

SIC exit poll:

29.2-33.6% PS
28.4-32.8% AD
  8.1-11.5% IL
  7.5-10.9% CHEGA
    2.9-5.9% Livre
    2.8-5.8% BE
    2.8-5.8% CDU
    0.4-2.0% PAN

TVI/CNN Portugal exit poll:

27.7-33.7% PS
26.0-32.0% AD
  6.6-12.6% CHEGA
  8.3-12.3% IL
    3.0-7.0% BE
    2.5-6.5% Livre
    2.0-6.0% CDU
    0.7-2.7% PAN

CMTV exit poll:

30.2% PS
29.9% AD
10.3% IL
  9.5% CHEGA
  4.6% BE
  4.5% Livre
  3.8% CDU
  1.3% PAN

[Agonized-Statism]

Makes me wonder if we're looking at a second Western populist wave.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

It's an exit polls, so things could change, but shockingly bad performance for S given that they are in the oppostion.

The Social Democrats election campaign has been surprisingly poor and they really haven't been able to give voters a reason why they should support them. Their election slogan has been "Make something big", but they really haven't been able to tell voters what that big thing is supposed to be. They clearly counted on Andersson's strong numbers nationally to carry them across the line.

The Left and the Greens have had high profile candidates and focused on Climate policy, which has been the big issue this campaign. I'm not surprised they've been able to steal a lot of voters that would usually vote for the Social Democrats nationally.

The results for S, SD and Mp are massively different to what they’re getting in the polls for the national elections, is this a turnout thing (it would have to be a very low and wildly unbalanced turnout if so)?

It's partly a turn-out thing, but S and SD both have had terrible campaigns. SD has gone full Trump in a way that really doesn't appeal to anyone but their core voters. I don't think anyone dared to expect it, because they always increase no matter how badly they do...

Let's wait and see if the exit poll is right and that trend has finally changed.

[President Johnson]

Macron dissolves the National Assembly

I


did not see that coming

Wow, total shocker. But it can only get worse for him?

[Oryxslayer]

Makes me wonder if we're looking at a second Western populist wave.

The human brain tries to find patterns where there often are none. With hindsight we can definitely see that long-running fragmentation, the fallout from the Euro-Crisis, and increasing immigration all birthed voter bases that new parties exploited. With enough time since then, the political pendulum was allowed to swing numerous times in every country. Eventually in PR systems, if the other parties fail, the new parties will end up the beneficiary. To dramatically generalize, this is what happened in Italy and the Netherlands, and could soon happen in France.

Like how do you look at recant polling across the continent and say there are the same factor at play in say the UK, France, Sweden, Poland, Germany, and Spain to name a few. The pendulum is swinging differently in each case.

In a similar vein, people labeled the host of elections in Latin America several years back the 'second Pink Tide.' But that was very anachronistic for the same reasons. The first Pink Tide was a true case of correlation and causation, cause all the affected countries voters were ending dictatorship and turning to the opposition (usually left wing) in the same way, following the footsteps of their compatriots. This so-called second wave had none of that, it was just a bunch of pendulums all touching the same point on the spectrum at a single moment, pushed there by divergent and uncorrelated events and subsequently diverging once more.