European Parliament elections, June 2024

[Mike88]

The first result from Portugal is from overseas, from Timor:

34.5% PSD/CDS/PPM
20.5% PS
11.2% IL
10.9% CHEGA
  9.3% BE
  7.3% Livre
  3.8% CDU
  2.5% Others/Invalid

313 votes cast. In 2019, only 51 votes were cast.

[oldtimer]

Greek Exit Polls where wrong  yet again.

At 30% in

ND 27.6
Kasselakis 14.6
PASOK 13.7
Velopoulos 10.1
Communists 9.2
NIKKI 4.5
Konstantopoulou 3.3
Insane Supermodel 3.1

[Mike88]

Greek Exit Polls where wrong  yet again.

At 30% in

ND 27.6
Kasselakis 14.6
PASOK 13.7
Velopoulos 10.1
Communists 9.2
NIKKI 4.5
Konstantopoulou 3.3
Insane Supermodel 3.1

This is the end of the line for Androulakis, isn't it? Also, who is this insane supermodel? xD

[CumbrianLefty]

Greek Exit Polls where wrong  yet again.

At 30% in

ND 27.6
Kasselakis 14.6
PASOK 13.7
Velopoulos 10.1
Communists 9.2
NIKKI 4.5
Konstantopoulou 3.3
Insane Supermodel 3.1

Sorry if this seems a bit dense, but are Syriza no longer a thing?

[oldtimer]

Greek Exit Polls where wrong  yet again.

At 30% in

ND 27.6
Kasselakis 14.6
PASOK 13.7
Velopoulos 10.1
Communists 9.2
NIKKI 4.5
Konstantopoulou 3.3
Insane Supermodel 3.1

This is the end of the line for Androulakis, isn't it? Also, who is this insane supermodel? xD

Not the end of Androulakis or Kasselakis, because 2nd place is clearly open.

The insane supermodel is a fringe loaded supermodel who fashioned herself as the "Voice of (In)Sanity", she regularly spend tons of money to adverstise her looks, this time some men decided to vote for her.

[oldtimer]

Greek Exit Polls where wrong  yet again.

At 30% in

ND 27.6
Kasselakis 14.6
PASOK 13.7
Velopoulos 10.1
Communists 9.2
NIKKI 4.5
Konstantopoulou 3.3
Insane Supermodel 3.1

Sorry if this seems a bit dense, but are Syriza no longer a thing?

Not really, it dissolved during the winter.

The name is temporarily still there, until it will be dropped later this year.

[crals]

What is going on in Finland?

[Storr]

If accurate, this would be Fidesz/KDNP's worst ever European Parliament election result:

"Hungary, 21 kutatóközpont poll:

European Parliament election

Fidesz/KDNP-NI|EPP: 44% (-9)
TISZA→EPP: 32% (new)
DK/MSZP/P-S&D|G/EFA: 8% (-15)
MH~NI: 7% (+4)
MKKP~G/EFA: 4% (+1)
Momentum-RE: 3% (-7)
MMN→EPP: 1% (new)
2RK-*: 1% (new)

+/- vs. 2019 election

Fieldwork: 6-8 June 2024
Sample size: 1,000"

[Oryxslayer]

What is going on in Finland?

Green and far Right voters end up turning to the same opposition party each for their own sperate (but understandable) reasons. Throw in a bit of differential midterm-style turnout.

[tepoe]

The 21 Kutatóközpont poll is not an exit poll, just a simple poll published in time to catch the attention as there are no exit polls in Hungary (for a decade now, at least publicly). And the pollster is among the ones that gave the lowest numbers for Fidesz for the whole campaign, so do not count on it too much.

[Logical]

Vas leader is also very personally popular and has broken the record on the most individual votes in an European election. Some random guy on the Vas party list with just 3 thousand votes is set to be elected on the back of her votes alone.

[Storr]

What is going on in Finland?

Green and far Right voters end up turning to the same opposition party each for their own sperate (but understandable) reasons. Throw in a bit of differential midterm-style turnout.

LOL: "The Left Alliance could spring an evening surprise, with the early count showing the party in second place with three seats in the early counting — an increase of two seats. “I am in shock,” said Left Alliance leader Li Andersson."

https://www.politico.eu/article/european-elections-2024-live-updates/#1297683

[crals]

What is going on in Finland?

Green and far Right voters end up turning to the same opposition party each for their own sperate (but understandable) reasons. Throw in a bit of differential midterm-style turnout.

What are the far-right voters' reasons to go for VAS?

[Logical]

Projection for France.

RN 31,5%
Macronistes 15,2%
PS 14%
FI 8,7%
LR 7,2%
Zemmouristes 5,5%
EELV 5,2%

[Mike88]

Polls now closed everywhere except Italy, the Canary islands and the Azores.

In Spain, the "sondeos" show a close race between PP and PSOE, with a slight lead for PP.

Sondeo RTVE:

21-23 PP
20-22 PSOE
    6-7 Vox
    3-4 Sumar
    2-3 Podemos
    2-3 Ahóra Republicas
    2-3 SALF
    1-1 Junts
    1-1 CEUS

[Antonio the Sixth]

Projection for France.

RN 31,5%
Macronistes 15,2%
PS 14%
FI 8,7%
LR 7,2%
Zemmouristes 5,5%
EELV 5,2%

37% for the far-right (actually 38% if you add Philippot's clown car). That is terrifying.

I was really hoping PS would come second, they had a really strong campaign. But 14% is still the best PS result in like a decade.

[Zinneke]

Projection for France.

RN 31,5%
Macronistes 15,2%
PS 14%
FI 8,7%
LR 7,2%
Zemmouristes 5,5%
EELV 5,2%

37% for the far-right. That is terrifying.

I was really hoping PS would come second, they had a really strong campaign. But 14% is still the best PS result in like a decade.

Same, it's a shame Glucksmann didn't defeat Hayer, because know you also know that the Macroniste remnant will try to frame it as a very early anti-RN primary for the Presidentielle and that the PS should not run a candidate in order to avoid RN winning outright.

[President Johnson]

Projection for France.
snip
RN 31,5%
Macronistes 15,2%
PS 14%
FI 8,7%
LR 7,2%
Zemmouristes 5,5%
EELV 5,2%

37% for the far-right (actually 38% if you add Philippot's clown car). That is terrifying.

I was really hoping PS would come second, they had a really strong campaign. But 14% is still the best PS result in like a decade.

It's terrifying all over the continent that far-right and populist parties are the strongest political force in several countries. Nothing to be proud of.

Even AfD still getting over 16% despite their top candidate being a literal Russian and Chinese asset is beyond me. Even if you dislike the government, there are several other options available. What's interesting though is that AfD performed best among men with lower education. Basically a pettern we see elsewhere in Europe and across the Atlantic.

[Oryxslayer]

Projection for France.

RN 31,5%
Macronistes 15,2%
PS 14%
FI 8,7%
LR 7,2%
Zemmouristes 5,5%
EELV 5,2%

37% for the far-right (actually 38% if you add Philippot's clown car). That is terrifying.

I was really hoping PS would come second, they had a really strong campaign. But 14% is still the best PS result in like a decade.

Is it really that surprising though? When there is a strong unified party for the anti-EU vote then they have multiple incentives to turnout for these type of elections that other voter groups may not. Throw in midterm-style forces animating voters who despise the government to turnout and Le Pen has all the electoral cards.

In a similar lane, the East German estimate. Here the 'motivated' opposition are extremists,  whereas in the West it's the CDU who benefits.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1799863117586854093?t=BpYYTWSmfW6df6iOWq...

[OSR stands with Israel]

Projection for France.
snip
RN 31,5%
Macronistes 15,2%
PS 14%
FI 8,7%
LR 7,2%
Zemmouristes 5,5%
EELV 5,2%

37% for the far-right (actually 38% if you add Philippot's clown car). That is terrifying.

I was really hoping PS would come second, they had a really strong campaign. But 14% is still the best PS result in like a decade.

It's terrifying all over the continent that far-right and populist parties are the strongest political force in several countries. Nothing to be proud of.

Even AfD still getting over 16% despite their top candidate being a literal Russian and Chinese asset is beyond me. Even if you dislike the government, there are several other options available. What's interesting though is that AfD performed best among men with lower education. Basically a pettern we see elsewhere in Europe and across the Atlantic.

Merkel will probably go down as one of the worst German Chancellors since 1949. Her failed policies on Russia, Energy and Immigration have really hurt Germany and the latter upended politics all across Europe.

[Boobs]

Danish exit polls have Green Left surpassing the Social Democrats, 18%-15%.

[Beezer]

Some interesting trends from Germany. First of all, the AfD did incredibly well among younger voters whereas the CDU has to hope some kind of medical miracle will ensure its voters stick around for a few more extra years.



They more than tripled their share among the youngest voters. My guess is that a plurality of 16-17 year olds (who were able to take part in the European elections here in Germany for the first time) supported the AfD:



Continuing trends: AfD is undoubtedly the preferred choice among blue collar voters, reflecting a trend seen all over Europe.





Thought Wagenknecht would do better. 5-6% in the Euro "second order" elections is not really a great result for what is widely perceived to be a protest party. Surprisingly few defections from the AfD:

[Beezer]

Even if you dislike the government, there are several other options available.

And what other options cater to the anti-immigration attitudes that are the defining feature of practically every AfD voter?

[JimJamUK]

Some interesting trends from Germany. First of all, the AfD did incredibly well among younger voters whereas the CDU has to hope some kind of medical miracle will ensure its voters stick around for a few more extra years.

Isn’t that the exact same graph that’s been true for years? The AFD do worst among the elderly and best among the middle aged. They did only 1% better among the under 25s than they did among Germans as a whole.

[Antonio the Sixth]

F**king BSW is having a mini-breakthrough? Incredible.