The New Spain – A Spanish Election Series (Master Thread)

[Lumine]

After forty years of dictatorship, Generalísimo Franco is dead,
With the Caudillo gone, Spain stands at the crossroads of history,
Will democracy be restored, or will the regime continue until the end of time?

Intro:

Francisco Franco died on November 20th, 1975.

After almost forty years of dictatorship, the Kingdom of Spain finds itself isolated and under heavy pressure to end the pseudo-fascist and increasingly technocratic single party regime that has ruled the nation with an iron fist. It is not, however, an easy task to accomplish.

With Spanish politics divided between those who favor "Reform" (a slow, gradual transition to a managed democracy) and "Rupture" (a complete break with Franco's legacy and a constituent process), the Army and the Francoist hardliners (the so-called "Bunker") resistant to change, and a mounting wave of violence and economic hardships, there is no clear path ahead.

King Juan Carlos I, who nominally holds the reigns of power after being designated by Franco as his successor, is keen to preserve the newfound dynastic restoration, and views the restoration of democracy as his best available route. Aided by his mentor and President of the Cortes Españolas, the wily Torcuato Fernandez-Miranda, the King has just dismissed the Franco-appointed Prime Minister Arias Navarro, whose deliberately slow approach to limited reform has only made things worse.

In his stead, the King and Fernández-Miranda have appointed the literal unknown Adolfo Suárez - another Francoist minister - to replace him. Although Suarez has evident qualities on account of his youth, dynamism and utter (some would say ruthless) pragmatism, both men see him as a useful (and temporary) tool to implement a more aggressive programme of reform to achieve a rapid, yet managed transition.

Unbeknownst to them, Suárez has far more ambition than they can imagine. And he also has a few ideas of his own.

This will be the story of Spain after Franco, as decided through this interactive TL combining elections and decisions by key players.

List of Spanish Heads of State:

Kingdom of Spain

Juan Carlos I the Brief (House of Bourbon): November 1975 - November 1979
Regency of Juan, Count of Barcelona (House of Bourbon): November 1979 - March 1986

Third Spanish Republic

José María de Areilza (PP): March 1986 - Present

List of Spanish Prime Ministers:

Adolfo Suárez (National Movement - Majority): July 1976 - August 1977
Adolfo Suárez (UCD - Minority with PCE Support): August 1977 - March 1979
Manuel Gutiérrez Mellado (Ind - PCE-PP-PSOE-UCD-DCE Coalition): March 1979 - March 1981
José María de Areilza (PP - AD - Coalition with NAT Support): March 1981 - May 1984

Carlos Hugo de Borbón-Parma (PC - PSE Coalition with NAT Support): May 1984 - March 1986

Alfonso Guerra (PSE-PP-UCD Coalition): March 1986 - Present

[Lumine]

It's been a while since I last ran an interactive TL, so I wanted to do a more thorough remake of a Spanish-based one I did in 2018, portraying the Spanish transition to democracy. Instead of starting with the first democratic General Election (1977), I've decided to - with the benefit of having done more research - push things back to 1976, where a series of important decisions that greatly affected said elections were taken.

The idea is to showcase the depth and complexity of the period while allowing people to influence not just elections, but also some of the decisions made by key people. As always, I'll be using a series of dice rolls to simulate certain things. We won't see the level of electoral detail I usually employ in the British TL's, but I'll try to compensate by hopefully offering a coherent narrative.

I hope people will find it interesting enough!

(Having said all that, I'm still learning about Spanish politics and I tend to speculate to fill the gaps, so I encourage people to let me know when I get things wrong)

[Lumine]

₁

The Suárez I Government

1976-1977, National Movement - Majority

When Adolfo Suárez was named Prime Minister in July 1976, Spaniards who knew little of politics asked: "who?". Spaniards who knew about politics asked: "Why".

By any indication, Suárez was the quintessential Francoist bureaucrat, having been a loyal foot soldier and even - up to that moment - the Minister for the National Movement. He had dazzled defending Arias Navarro's limited reforms, sure, but his appointment, brought about through shadowy and highly complicated tactical maneuvers by Torcuato Fernández-Miranda, caused general and genuine bafflement. It was to be a shock, therefore, that with the full backing of his King, Suárez would get meaningful reforms through and secure the first democratic election since 1936' in little over a year.

Despite running severe risks by firing General Fernando de Santiago - a hardline Francoist - as Deputy Prime Minister, Suárez and his closest allies (Fernández-Miranda, fellow conservative minister Alfonso Osorio, and pro-reform General Gutierrez Mellado) successfully sold a radical Political Reform Law to the Francoist Cortes, under the guise of preserving Franco's values through a democratic Spain. Taking it to a referendum, and despite sizable opposition both by the Búnker and the democratic Platajunta (through No votes and abstentions), popular backing was found for democratization.

1976 Political Reform Referendum:

YES: 62.5%
NO: 37.5%

Despite his rapid progress on democratization, Suárez's task was made much more difficult by extremely difficult challenges elsewhere. Spain remained isolated internationally and made progress slowly. The economy, ruined by the 1973 Oil Crisis, led to unsustainable rates of inflation and high unemployment. Despite issuing a partial amnesty for political prisoners, the Basque Country remained aflame, with left-wing, right-wing and nationalist terrorist groups killing scores of people in broad daylight. None of these challenges was to be meaningfully solved in the year of the Suárez I Government.

Before the General Election was to be held, and in what could only be described as a stunning turn of events, Suárez and PCE General Secretary Santiago Carrillo reached a previously unimaginable agreement: the PCE would significantly moderate and accept the monarchy, and Suárez would legalize the Communist Party. The decision led Spain to the brink of a military intervention, but danger was narrowly averted as voters were finally able to go to the polls.

Defeated or victorious, the Prime Minister could at least say he had brought democracy back.

_____________________________
^{1.) Original Image: Adolfo Suárez, 1979, Palacio de la Moncloa, Wikimedia Commons.}

[Lumine]

1977 General Election

Suárez narrowly contains a Communist surge

Party		Votes	Seats
UCD (Suárez)		25.9%	139
PCE (Carrillo)		19.5%	83
PSOE (González)		13.8%	51
AN18 (Fernández)		8.4%	21
FDI (García)		8.4%	16
PSP (Tierno-Galván)		5.6%	9
EDC (Ruíz-Giménez)		5.6%	6
AP (Fraga)		2.7%	3
ASD (Llopis†)		2.7%	1
Nationalists		5.2%	21
Others		2.3%	0

Held on the middle of June, the 1977 General Election was first free election held in the Kingdom of Spain since 1936, and called by Prime Minister Adolfo Suárez as a result of the enactment of the Political Reform Act as approved by voters in the 1976 Referendum.

Featuring the election of all 350 members of the Congress of Deputies - plus the Senate - through district-based PR, and with the goal of providing a new Cortes Generales that would draft a new democratic constitution, the election saw large turnout from the public and a frenzied campaign featuring scores of new political parties.

Suárez's centrist UCD narrowly won the election with over a quarter of the vote, greatly benefiting from the electoral system it was purposely created. Santiago Carrillo's PCE scored second, leaving Felipe González's PSOE in a respectable third and securing Communist supremacy over the Socialists among the left.

The far-right AN18 and the far-left FDI tied for fourth, showcasing the opposition of a sizable minority to Suárez's specific framework for the new Spanish democracy. With the Christian Democrats and PSP also showing signs of life despite disappointing results, the election was a disaster for the left-wing anti-communist ASD, and more importantly, for Manuel Fraga's AP, temporarily killing off the moderate conservative right.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The twists and turns this has taken are interesting. I look forward to see how this series evolves.

[Lumine]

₁

The Suárez II Government

1977-1979, UCD - Minority

For an entire year (1976-1977), Adolfo Suárez had been the smiling, charming champion of Spanish democracy. He had crowned this achievement with a somewhat disappointing electoral result, but certainly enough to govern after securing the "Historic Compromise" with Carrillo's PCE. Again and again, the dynamic Prime Minister had overcome all impossible challenges, not without much luck.

For the next eighteen months, it seemed as if all of Suárez's luck had simply ran out.

Just about the only front that went well for Suárez was to be foreign policy. The government saw it as vital that Spain broke out of the diplomatic isolation caused by Franco's dictatorship, and it engaged actively with Washington and the European Community to address the issue. A new treaty with Portugal was signed, Spain's application to join the EEC was drafted and pushed into a long process of negotiations to see whether the Kingdom would finally join the Common Market, and US President Carter -alongside other allies - provided vital support for Spain to successfully complete democratization.

For everything else, it seemed as if Spain's collective demons had been unleashed. The economy not only refused to pick up, it nosedived into free fall as unemployment skyrocketed and inflation continued to climb. Even as the PCE-UCD compromise meant the passage of new labor laws that substantially strengthened trade unions and prevented mass strikes, the economic struggles quickly created a strong sense of malaise, weakening what should have been an optimistic start to democracy. The domestic situation was just as bad: negotiations between Suárez and the Basque and Catalonian autonomists fell through hard amidst internal opposition, ensuring that some measure of pre-autonomy would not be enacted before a new Constitution.

For their part, ETA and other terrorist organizations (left and right-wing) staged endless acts of violence, resulting in hundreds (!) of military and civilian casualties in just a few months. Built for government but not yet united, the UCD was rapidly falling apart due to the resentment of several barons of having to rely on the Communists and because of Suárez's attitude, who seemed overwhelmed with the challenges ahead. And though Carrillo was about as generous as a leader of the opposition could afford to be, Suárez mounting unpopularity made it increasingly more difficult to maintain the compromise.

By late 1978, with the leftist and nationalist parties using a slight majority at the Cortes to draft a radical Constitution, it seemed to many that the Prime Minister had lost control of the situation, leading to the brief Second Civil War. Released from captivity by royalist troops, Suárez was even denied the role of being the democratic hero and martyr due to being out of action as a captive, King Juan Carlos earning all the plaudits for his courage.

The situation was intolerable, the mood pre-revolutionary, and the incoming Constitution likely to tear Spain apart. Suárez, desperate for a solution, dissolved the Cortes.

_____________________________
^{1.) Original Image: Adolfo Suárez, 1979, Campaigning in Seville, Wikimedia Commons.}

[Lumine]

₁

Second Spanish Civil War

Popularly known as "El Motín" (the mutiny) o "La segunda parte" (part II), the Second Spanish Civil War took place between November and December 1978, the result of an attempted coup d'etat by a group of Francoist Generals led by Fernando de Santiago and Jaime Milans del Bosch.

After arresting Prime Minister Suárez and seizing control over Madrid, plotters failed to persuade King Juan Carlos I - then in Mexico - to support a softer version of the coup led by General Alfonso Armada. Upon the King flying back into Spain to lead the resistance against the coup, the Armed Forces split as many officers found it impossible to break their oath to the King.

Despite Milans' attempts to bring the conflict to a quick end with an airstrike against the King, the hardliner efforts backfired spectacularly as the Army's disciplined crashed, many soldiers defecting and/or joining forces with the opposition to the coup amidst mass protests and strikes. After a few weeks of violence, the combination of international pressure (with the French Army and the US Sixth Fleet making threatening noises), the collapse of discipline as Soldier Councils were organically established, and the collapse of morale within the plotters ensured the end of Milans' planned Junta.

Two days before Christmas, King Juan Carlos re-entered Madrid alongside loyal forces, Suárez and other prominent politicians like Carrillo and González being released from military captivity. Milans and de Santiago promptly fled to Pinochet's Chile, and scores of Francoist officers were arrested for treason. Hundreds were dead as a result of the brief but intense conflict, and amidst scenes of revenge and/or isolated infighting as well as the refusal of the Soldiers' Councils to dissolve, Spain was left in a seemingly pre-Revolutionary situation.

[Lumine]

1979 General Election

Amidst a major royal scandal, UCD sinks and the Carlists triumph

Party		Votes	Seats
PC (Borbón-Parma)		23.5%	94 (+94)
PCE (Carrillo)		17.3%	73 (-10)
PP (Areilza)		11.1%	48 (+48)
AN18 (Piñar)		11.1%	42 (+21)
PSOE (González)		8.7%	30 (-21)
UCD (Suárez)		7.1%	20 (-119)
DCE (Ruíz-Giménez)		6.5%	13 (+7)
PSP-IR (Tierno-Galván)		4.4%	7 (-2)
FDI (García)		2.2%	1 (-15)
Nationalists		5.8%	22 (+1)
Others		2.3%	0

Held on February after a sudden dissolution of the Cortes by Prime Minister Adolfo Suárez, the 1979 General Election was the second free general election since the return of democracy, held right after the apparent conclusion of the brief - but deadly - Second Spanish Civil War.

Initially conceived by the ruling UCD as a last-ditch effort to prevent enactment of the left-wing inspired Constitutional draft and seek a "doctor's mandate", the campaign became dominated by allegations of improper intervention by the King in the 1977 elections through financial contributions - or an outright bribe - from the Shah of Iran, the so-called "Sha-gate" ("Shah-gate").

Battered by an economic crisis and the Sha-gate, UCD collapsed spectacularly on the polls, sinking all the way to sixth place. In it stead, Christian Democrats and Francoists made significant gains, and José María de Areilza's PP broke through as the new main party of the moderate right. The elections, however, were won by the surging Carlist Party, winning almost 100 seats on an anti-establishment campaign targeting the King and promoting their own claimaint to the throne.

Although the traditional parties of the left all took losses, the Carlist surge ensured a left-wing majority in the Cortes, if one highly divided due to the deep divisions between the PCE and the Carlists.

[Lumine]

₁

The Gutiérrez Mellado Government

1979-1981, Independent - Majority National Coalition

When Adolfo Suárez had sacked the hardline Francoist General de Santiago as Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defence in 1976, the choice of his successor had been obvious. A civil war veteran with a remarkable career in government, Lt. General Manuel Gutiérrez Mellado had made waves with earlier speeches in favor of democratization, asserting that the military should be subordinated to the government and crown by respect their wishes on opening the political process. And through the difficult Suárez years, Gutiérrez Mellado had been vital in keeping the military from bolting at least until Milans' failed putsch and brief civil war. And when Suárez had gone down in flames and a man was needed to lead an unstable national coalition, the new Regent had asked the General to step up.

Gutiérrez Mellado wanted anything but leading the government, but duty prevailed over the old man's wariness. From a start, his task was close to impossible. He had to steer the nation - with a shaky coalition from the moderate right to the eurocommunists - through a new Constitution, debates over the monarchy, an economic crisis, outright terrorism across the nation, and unruly regions ready to demand anything and everything. Slowly but surely, the General's grit, determination, and sincere democratic convictions allowed him to make political progress, aided in the task by the decision of communist leader Santiago Carrillo and moderate right-winger José María de Areilza's to compromise and shut the anti-establishment Carlist movement away from any major decisions.

Thus, and against the odds, Gutiérrez Mellado managed to save the Monarchy and push through the Constitution of 1979, a document that would signify a drastic shift from the highly centralized unitary state of Franco into an outright federal Spain, an experiment last attempted in the 19th Century. For their part, the Alianza Nacional 18 de Julio, electoral vehicle for Francoism who had backed the failed coup, were to be banned as well as a criminal organization.

1979 Institutional Referendum:

MONARCHY: 60.9%
REPUBLIC: 39.1%

1979 Constitutional Referendum:

YES: 59.1%
NO: 40.9%

In the aftermath of such a remarkable achievement, the regions at long last calmed down. Independence movements in Catalonia, the Basque Country and other regions lost steam, allowing  moderate autonomists to regain prominence as they geared for the first round of regional elections. With the Carlists contained and tearing themselves apart over recent failures, Gutiérrez Mellado's unstable coalition held during 1979 and 1980 despite its 18-seat majority being vulnerable. This, in turn, followed major progress in the foreign front, with the General making strong progress in EEC membership (only held back due to the economic meltdown), holding the first Iberoamerican summit, and striking an excellent rapport with Prime Minister Francisco Sá Carneiro of Portugal.

Sadly, the General's remarkable political and foreign achievements were to be tarred and overshadowed with a domestic situation that threatened to rip the country apart despite having weathered out recent crisis. The economy, already in outright free fall during 1977-1978, had worsened to unexpected degrees: unemployment had skyrocketed in 1980 to a historic 25% (!) after the 1978 record-high of 22%, with rising rates of inflation threatening to spiral into outright hyperinflation while the economy contracted. With the PCE starting to lose control over several major trading unions, strikes became increasingly prominent as the jobless held several major protests, demanding solutions while the government proved too ideologically diverse to agree on a coherent program.

Having experienced such a horrific economic year in 1980, and with the first regional elections in the horizon creating the unpleasant prospect of an extremist surge, socialist PSOE leader Felipe González was the first to pull out, erasing the government majority in an attempt not to get tarnished by association. Despite pleading from the Regent, the Count of Barcelona, Gutiérrez Mellado knew his time was up. For better or worse, the people needed to decide what came next.

[Lumine]

1981 General Election

Carlos Hugo misses out and Areilza surges in a fragmented landscape

Party		Votes	Seats
PP (Areilza)		20.2%	99 (+51)
PC (Borbón-Parma)		21.5%	88 (-6)
AD (Lavilla)		13.7%	48 (+11)
PSOE (González)		13.7%	39 (+9)
PSP-IR (Tierno-Galván)		9.8%	16 (+9)
PCE (Carrillo)		9.1%	25 (-58)
Nationalists		9.5%	35 (+13)
Others		2.5%	0

Held in March after PSOE Leader Felipe González pulled out of the multi-party coalition that sustained independent Prime Minister Manuel Gutiérrez Mellado, the 1981 General Election was the third general election since the return of democracy, taking place right before the implementation of federalism across Spain and in a deep economic depression.

Despite great expectations placed on the Carlist movement and the Red Prince as being able to capitalize on popular discontent and economic hardship, a low turnout election saw the Carlists lose ground despite topping the popular vote. The deep divisions within the Spanish left saw a heavy defeat for Carrillo's Eurocommunist stances, leading to a revival of the still split Socialists and the resuscitation of González and Enrique Tierno-Galván as contenders for the leadership of the "ideologically orthodox" let.

In a surprise result, José María de Areilza's moderate right achieved a larger amount of seats thanks to more efficient vote distribution, but proved barely able to surpass 20%, in what many saw as confirmation of Spain rapidly becoming a center-left to left wing country at heart after Franco's regime. The center, reunited under the Alianza Democrática, survived to a respectable result, if still far away from the heyday of the UCD. And, in a sign of the increasing relevance of regional politics, moderate nationalist parties strongly surged in Andalusia, Catalonia and the Basque Country.

Keen to stop a Carlist government, Regent Juan de Barcelona quickly acted to shut Carlos Hugo out of government.

[Lumine]

₁

The Areilza Government

1981-1984, PP-AD Coalition with Nationalist support

José María de Areilza had once been a promising and active diplomat in the early Franco regime, serving as ambassador to the US before being shut out of power. The reason had been Areilza's rampant monarchism and, more to the point, his demands for liberalization and a return to democracy. This, in turn, had given Areilza liberal credentials that few on the Spanish right possessed, the appointment of Suárez - instead of Areilza - back in 1976 originally seen as a mistake precisely because most expected the old diplomat to be the man of the hour.  

And yet history had turned around. At 71, Areilza was now leading an utterly unstable coalition, a nation in economic ruin, regions hungering for absolute power against Madrid, and to top it all off, the ever present threat of the Carlist Prince and his Red Berets clamoring for a "democratic revolution of the people". A consensus-builder by excellence, Areilza nonetheless struggled with the consequences of his own intellectual vanity, no shortage of conflicts in a PP-AD cabinet filled - as Deputy PM Pío Cabanillas put it - with "more generals than soldiers", and ceaseless talks with the new regional premiers elected across the long electoral year of 1981.

First the bad: the Spanish left crushed the government parties across almost all regional election, delivering Areilza more than a dozen hostile premiers (including an outspoken Carlist in Navarre) and dooming the government to negotiate with said premiers and the moderate nationalists to survive almost every vote. Foreign policy, seen as a key strength of Areilza, fell apart quickly enough after the EEC slammed the door on Spain's face, noting that until its economy regained "some semblance of sanity", there would be no swift entry. An attempt to explore the entry into NATO not only violently split the AD caucus, it got a resounding NO from the Cortes in a rare show of unity for the left.

With the economy starting a very mediocre, slow recovery, and an utterly disastrous attempt at pursuing electoral reform that threatened to collapse the government, the stage seemed set for Areilza to lose control, prompting Carlos Hugo into launching a surprise VONC in 1982:

1982 Vote of No Confidence:
Candidate: Carlos Hugo de Borbón-Parma (PC)

YES: 93
NO: 166
ABS: 91

The failure of Carlos Hugo, a source of great humiliation for Carlism, signaled that the cordon sanitaire would not be broken, the opposition remaining deeply split across the entire term and allowing Areilza to hold on to power far longer than anyone could have expected. As the months and years went by, the economy slowly and painfully recovered under a staunchly fiscally responsible regime, closely guarded by Economy Minister Leopoldo Calvo-Sotelo, unemployment hovering around a still deeply painful 18% (!) in 1984. A series of damaging financial scandals would knock down the occasional minister and cause embarrassment, but Areilza kept himself well clear of any such issues.

Strictly speaking, the greatest achievements of the painful Areilza years would be in domestic policy. Slowly and surely, Areilza and his coalition presided over a major process of industrial revitalization in depressed areas, ably navigated a violent outbreak over contaminated colza oil, reformed the Armed Forces in the Gutiérrez Mellado template to ensure compliance with civilian rule, smashed a number of terrorist groups through efficient police action and kept ETA contained to the Basque Country, and undertook a series of labor reforms that, for a time, eased up the pressure from the trade unions after the reduction of the work week and greater unemployment aid.

Even so, there was only so much that could be done with a patently hostile and utterly fragmented Cortes. The AD, a coalition formed between two coalitions of parties, collapsed across 1983 as Adolfo Suárez - never one to surrender the spotlight to Areilza - staged his comeback by having the Suaristas take control of the UCD executive committee, forcing the right of the party (and a dejected Deputy PM Lavilla) to walk out. Unwilling to rely on Suárez for confidence and supply, Areilza decided he had survived as long as it was humanly plausible. Despite more than a year left in the Cortes, it was time to go to the polls.

[Lumine]

1984 General Election

Súarez achieves vengeance and Areilza hangs on,
but its the Carlists who get to lead now

Party		Votes	Seats
PC (Borbón-Parma)		27.9%	118 (+30)
PP (Areilza)		24.1%	104 (+5)
UCD (Suárez)		10.7%	43 (+43)
PSOE (González)		10.7%	34 (-5)
PCE (Gallego)		8.0%	17 (-8)
PSP-IR (Tierno-Galván)		8.0%	12 (-4)
DC (Alzaga)		2.6%	1 (-47)
Nationalists		6%	21 (-14)
Others		2.0%	0

Held in May following Prime Minister José María de Areilza's decision to call a snap election in the aftermath of the breakup of his partner Alianza Democrática, the 1984 General Election was the fourth general election since the return of democracy, taking place in a context of still high unemployment and a relative domestic calm achieved by the shaky coalition government.

Carlos Hugo's Carlist movement greatly outperformed expectations after the failed 1982 Vote of No Confidence, profiting from the intense division of the Spanish left, the successful performance of the party at the regional government of Navarre, and a general feeling of discontent with the political class. Thus, the Carlists leapfrogged to 28% of the vote, followed closely behind by a growing Partido Popular who had managed to further consolidate the Spanish right, by now clearly a minority within the Spanish electorate.

The continued divisions on the Spanish left were a cause of great disappointment, with both Socialist splinters losing significant ground and the Communists merely holding on to their already dismal 1981 performance. A similar disappointment was experienced by the more moderate Basque (PNV), Andalusian (PA) and Catalonian (CiU) nationalists, all of which lost significant ground to the Carlists. The biggest development in the center was the complete and utter collapse of the newly reunited Christian Democrats, almost entirely wiped out of parliament by a returning Adolfo Suárez and his increasingly progressive UCD.

In a reversal of 1981, efforts by Regent Juan de Barcelona to shut the Carlists out of government failed due to the impossibility of a PP-PSOE-UCD grand coalition, allowing a loose collection of left-wing parties to elevate Carlos Hugo to the Premiership.

[Lumine]

₁

The Borbón-Parma Government

1984-1986, Carlist-Socialist Coalition with Nationalist support

Despite the despair of Regent Juan, the Zarzuela Palace was left hopeless as Carlos Hugo finally broke the anti-Carlist cordon sanitaire, calls for the unity of the left finally securing victory. The PSOE and PSP would join in a 164-seat strong coalition, which would found the remaining 12 votes it needed from the various nationalist parties or Communist abstentions in given votes. Though both CiU and PNV - particularly the latter - deeply disliked Carlism, Carlos Hugo's extreme federalist and pro-devolution beliefs would enable the arrangement to work for a while. The price, however, had been high: Carlos Hugo would have to face Felipe VI at the ballot box before he came of age, and the monarchy itself would be under referendum.

At a deeply awkward ceremony, Regent Juan was forced to give Carlos Hugo the mandate for his government, the claimant narrowly winning the vote of investiture. It was to be two very intense years, the European press being fascinated with the prospect of the - still somewhat French-accented - claimant and prince being Prime Minister under a constitutional government promising a "democratic revolution".

Carlos Hugo and the Socialists managed to find much agreement in terms of domestic politics, with the vaguely left-wing majority of the Cortes dwarfing Areilza's reformist agenda by passing several landmark pieces of legislation through 1984. The Red Prince thus presided over the drastic expansion of the Spanish welfare state, extending free education up to age 18, creating a complex and highly decentralized National Health System, and - controversially - introducing an ambitious industrial reform that enabled workers' self-management in multiple recently nationalized industries, as well as profit sharing for private ones.

It was not the only success found by the Red Prince, in so far as his government successfully avoided major scandals and remained clean of accusations of corruption. On the foreign stage, the continued inability of Spain to enter the EEC did not phase Carlos Hugo, who focused on building a strong rapport with President Mitterrand in France that significantly tightened the noose on ETA. Though terrorist attacks would continue, the successful conclusion of the so-called Pact of Ajuria Enea - in which all democratic parties in the Basque Country denounced terrorism - preserved the ongoing gains made under Areilza. However, it was very much not to be a united government, with ever growing splits with the Socialists after the Carlists vetoed a push to liberalize divorce and abortion.

In one area the Carlist experiment thoroughly failed: the economy. Needing a drastic expansion in state expenditure to fund the welfare expansion and the nationalization of a number of key industries - including the powerful Rumasa Group -, the economy soon slid back into inflation. The nationalizations and attempts to bring more revenue through a powerful increase in the tax burden further eroded confidence, resulting in the utter collapse of the Madrid Stock Exchange six months after taking office. It went downhill from there. Inflation soon became hyperinflation, erasing all gains since the dark year of 1980. 1985 was the worst economic year in living memory, with unemployment going from 17% pre-Areliza to a historic high of 26% (!) on the eve of the referendum. The jobless could be seen everywhere, and there were no more anti-establishment forces to turn to.

All of this, in turn, gave life to a previously divided opposition. Areilza's successor Calvo-Sotelo, Suárez and the new PCE leader Ballesteros made much of Carlos Hugo's economic meltdown, alternatively mocking or bitterly complaining about the point of a welfare state if the government could no longer fund it. Soon after, the PNV and CiU stopped supporting the government, forcing it to rely on the increasingly hostile Communists. The Spanish business community, organized under the CEOE, rallied against the Carlists at every turn. And then, with the reunification of the Socialist movement, the Carlists were forced into the twin referendums at the worst possible moment:

1985 Constitutional Referendums:

REPUBLIC: 55.9%
MONARCHY: 44.1%

FELIPE VI: 53.1%
CARLOS HUGO I: 46.9%

No single party felt as much of a winner as the reunified PSE. Alfonso Guerra, having proclaimed the Third Republic from his balcony at Ferraz, felt it was now or never to get rid of Carlos Hugo when he was at this weakest. Citing the need to hold elections as soon as possible to redraft the Constitution, and before the Carlists could regroup, Guerra and Morodo walked out not one month after the historic referendum.

[Lumine]

1986 General Election

Guerra vanquishes the Red Prince,
But the nation becomes even more ungovernable

Party		Votes	Seats
PP (Calvo-Sotelo)		26.6%	121 (+17)
PSE (Guerra)		23.0%	100 (+54)
PC (Borbón-Parma)		16.9%	48 (-70)
PCE (Ballesteros)		14.6%	45 (+24)
UCD (Suárez)		6.2%	17 (-26)
PLD (Roca)		3%	1 (+1)
AR (Tamames)		2.7%	1 (+1)
Nationalists		5%	17 (-4)
Others		2.0%	0

Held in March, less than two years after the last general election, the 1986 General Election was the fifth general election since the return of democracy, and the first held under the newly proclaimed Third Spanish Republic. The election took place after the newly reunified PSE abandoned the Carlist-led coalition government, sparked by PM Carlos Hugo de Borbón-Parma's stunning defeat in the dramatic 1985 Constitutional Referendums. The election was held amidst the worst economic crisis in living memory.

Only ten months since the reunification of PSOE and PSP, the newly unified Partido Socialista de España (PSE) under Alfonso Guerra surged to second place overall and first place between the Spanish left, a result nonetheless marred by higher expectations and substantially worsening relations with the rest of the left. For their part, the Partido Popular topped the popular vote for the first time since its foundation, an achievement that nonetheless proved anemic in light of the overall weakness of the right and center against an increasingly left-wing dominated electorate.

Undermined by the defeat of their cause in 1985 as well as the economic meltdown, the Carlist movement lost almost half its support, pushed back into third place and being particularly punished by the electoral system in terms of seats. In a surprising result, the PCE achieved its best result since 1979, with Juan Ballesteros' uncompromising hardline stances finding appeal with unemployed workers. The rest of the field fared poorly, with Suárez's UCD suffering a harsh defeat, and the new contenders PLD (liberal) and AR (ecosocialist) flopping hard with the electorate. Nationalist parties were also pushed back to their worst collective result thus far.

With only Guerra's Socialist having a realistic shot at government, and forced to choose between hostile rivals and new elections, the PSE reached a coalition deal with PP and UCD, resulting in the election of the first Spanish Socialist PM since 1939.

[Lumine]

₁

The Guerra Government

1986-1987, PSE-PP-UCD Coalition

Alfonso Guerra had been a young Andalusian college teacher when he'd joined PSOE, spending his youth fighting the Francoist regime while making an astounding rise through the party ranks as Felipe González's deputy. Taking over a tired, discouraged PSOE after four defeats, Guerra had proved every bit a ruthless political guerrilla fighter, going scorched earth against his enemies by successively merging with PSP, bringing about the Republic and stabbing Carlos Hugo on the back, and now being in position as the only plausible PM.

Forced to make a difficult call given the make-up of the Cortes, Guerra gave clear signs that he could be flexible. Gone were the appeals to the unity of the left as he struck an unlikely deal with Calvo-Sotelo and Suárez to form a large national government with a thumping and unassailable majority. To assuage a reluctant PP who, it must be noted, did wield more seats and votes than PSE, Guerra conceded the Acting Presidency whilst the new Constitution was drafted. Calvo-Sotelo was thus pleased to put his mentor Areilza up for selection:

1986 Presidential Election:
Winner: José María de Areilza (PP)

Areilza (PP): 238 (68%)
Borbón-Parma (PC): 48 (14%)
Ballesteros (PCE): 45 (13%)
Pujol (NAT): 15 (4%)
Null/Abs: 4 (1%)

The government would last for only a year, but it would not be an uneventful one. Its biggest challenge aside from the economic mess was the need for a new Constitution, a task in which the lessons of 79' were once again applied. Neither the Carlists nor the Communists would be invited to participate, lest the process turn to gridlock. The moderate nationalists (CiU, PA, PNV) were invited, and angrily stormed out within a month after Guerra and Calvo-Sotelo insisted on electoral reform and safeguards against excessive autonomy. By the end of year, an ambitious draft was ready to be put to the public:

1987 Constitutional Referendum:

YES: 57.6%
NO: 42.4%

Spurred by UCD and the social liberal wing of PSE, the government successfully enacted new transparency laws and a novel freedom of information initiative, securing a perception of unprecedented transparency as the coalition remained free of scandal. Though not telegenic by any means, Guerra and Calvo-Sotelo made waves with joint press conferences that also brought the government closer to the media and, implicitly, to the electorate. For the most part, they held the line in terms of foreign and domestic policy; but the new National Health System was drastically centralized. New agreements were reached with the European Community, which agreed on a series of economic tests which, if passed, would finally allow Spain to enter the EEC.

Economically, urgent action was needed, with the government majority being enough to act despite internal disagreements. Finance Minister Miguel Boyer - a PSE moderate imposed on Guerra by PP and UCD - drastically shifted gears: part of the Carlist nationalizations of 84-85' were reversed, and the tax burden raised in order to bring about more resources. This, combined with an aggressive anti-inflation policy enacted from the Bank of Spain managed to reverse the hyperinflation trend, preventing the crisis from worsening. Lack of time prevented further developments, leaving Spain seemingly out of the worst by early 1987, but still saddled with high inflation and unemployment above 21%.

Still, Guerra increasingly resented Boyer and the brakes to his own agenda, UCD entered its own civil war over Suárez's succession, and the PP grew increasingly mutinous by the day. The alienation of the nationalists also resulted in a series of electoral victories for opposition candidates across 86', resulting in the formation of a strong bloc of regional premiers, the so-called "Magnificent Five": Pujol (CiU, Catalonia); Iglesias (PCE, Asturias); Garaikoetxea (PNV, Basque Country); Rojas-Marcos (PA, Andalusia); and Pérez-Nievas (PC, Navarre), an all-out federalist revolt against what they denounced to be a "centralist government".

With the 1987 Constitution enacted and needing to choose a President for a full term, a credible pretext emerged for all those desiring to walk out of the arrangement. Citing the inability to reach consensus, Guerra dissolved the Cortes and called for an election.