How would Phil Scott do if he had run for Governor of Texas?

[Samof94]

How would Phil Scott(R-VT) do in a GOP Primary for Governor in Texas?? If nominated, could he win the general?

[Mr. Smith]

If he course he wins the general. But he has no chance in the primaries at all.

[Ferguson97]

He'd get, generously, 10% in the primary.

[Vice President Christian Man]

He wouldn't survive the primary but if he did hypothetically, he'd be routinely censored by the party and possibly have to run for re-election as an independent. But it's more likely that if he actually survived the primary he'd lose to a Dem because of a lack of conservative turnout.

[AtorBoltox]

Gets 1% in primary after being painted as a radical communist

[Samof94]

He wouldn't survive the primary but if he did hypothetically, he'd be routinely censored by the party and possibly have to run for re-election as an independent. But it's more likely that if he actually survived the primary he'd lose to a Dem because of a lack of conservative turnout.

Would the conservatives endorse a 3rd party?

[Vice President Christian Man]

He wouldn't survive the primary but if he did hypothetically, he'd be routinely censored by the party and possibly have to run for re-election as an independent. But it's more likely that if he actually survived the primary he'd lose to a Dem because of a lack of conservative turnout.

Would the conservatives endorse a 3rd party?

I doubt it unless they're able to unite behind a single candidate but I have a feeling they'll be several splinter ones like what happened IOTL when he ran but on a much larger scale.

[Samof94]

He wouldn't survive the primary but if he did hypothetically, he'd be routinely censored by the party and possibly have to run for re-election as an independent. But it's more likely that if he actually survived the primary he'd lose to a Dem because of a lack of conservative turnout.

Would the conservatives endorse a 3rd party?

I doubt it unless they're able to unite behind a single candidate but I have a feeling they'll be several splinter ones like what happened IOTL when he ran but on a much larger scale.

I can just imagine the attack ads in the primary right now. "Phil Scott isn't a real Texan because he has made deals with Democrats" sounds like an ad they might run.

[Vice President Christian Man]

He wouldn't survive the primary but if he did hypothetically, he'd be routinely censored by the party and possibly have to run for re-election as an independent. But it's more likely that if he actually survived the primary he'd lose to a Dem because of a lack of conservative turnout.

Would the conservatives endorse a 3rd party?

I doubt it unless they're able to unite behind a single candidate but I have a feeling they'll be several splinter ones like what happened IOTL when he ran but on a much larger scale.

I can just imagine the attack ads in the primary right now. "Phil Scott isn't a real Texan because he has made deals with Democrats" sounds like an ad they might run.

Sounds about right

[Samof94]

He wouldn't survive the primary but if he did hypothetically, he'd be routinely censored by the party and possibly have to run for re-election as an independent. But it's more likely that if he actually survived the primary he'd lose to a Dem because of a lack of conservative turnout.

Would the conservatives endorse a 3rd party?

I doubt it unless they're able to unite behind a single candidate but I have a feeling they'll be several splinter ones like what happened IOTL when he ran but on a much larger scale.

I can just imagine the attack ads in the primary right now. "Phil Scott isn't a real Texan because he has made deals with Democrats" sounds like an ad they might run.

Sounds about right

True.

[BigZuck08]

Phil Scott would only get maybe 5% of the vote in a primary, maybe even less.

But just for the purposes of this scenario, we're going to imagine Scott does make it out of the primary (how that happens can be left to your imagination, reader).

If Scott does become the Republican nominee for Governor of Texas, he would overperform Trump, Abbott, and Cruz in most counties, but he would underperform them in the underpopulated, rural counties in the northwest. Although conservatives would go to Scott but barely turnout, moderates and a decent chunk of liberals would go to Scott, thus biting off of a lot of potential votes for whomever the Democratic nominee may be.

But overall, I think he would win by 15-20 points, maybe more (or less) than that depending on how competent the Democratic nominee is.