2023 Guatemala General Elections - June 25th (2nd Round: August 20th)

[MRCVzla]

General elections in Guatemala are going to be held TOMORROW, President and Vicepresident are 4-year term limited without reelection, if tomorrow in the 1st round no candidate wins above 50%+1 of the votes, a 2nd round with the runner-up will be held on August 20th, for the Parliament they will renovate their unicameral 160-seat Congress (32 by nationwide list, 128 by 11 constituencies).

22 candidates with their VP formulas are on the presidential ballot, the campaign has been plagued by Guatemalan Supreme Court banning some top candidates leaving doubts around the process.

Three have serious possibilites to be on the ballotage with other one having some momentum in the polls: again like in 2015 and 2019, the main favorite to lead in the 1st round seems to be the former first lady Sandra Torres of the populist social-democrat UNE, along her, the daughter of the late former dictador Efraín Rios Montt, Zury Ríos standing with the support of the parties VALOR (populist, right-wing) and Unionist (conservative) and diplomat Edmond Mulet with his party CABAL (liberal, centre-right), rising in the polls is Manuel Villacorta also kind of diplomat being a former ambassador in Israel and getting 5% in the 2019 election, Villacorta is running with his own party VOS (Will, Oportunity and Solidarity) with centre-left background and also being a split from UNE.

With less options but still between the top-5 is lawyer Manuel Conde Orellana from the incumbent President Alejando Giammatei' rulling party VAMOS (conservative, centre-right), Giammatei end his term with low popularity (being a constant norm of recent Guatemalan presidents, some ended up in jail for corruption). Also at least getting a "good performance" (being above 5%) is Bernardo Arévalo of the centre-left Movimiento Semilla, another businessman Armando Castillo of the VIVA party (center-right) or Amílcar Rivera of the Victory party (christian, right-wing)

Between the candidates banned in controversial decisions, were businessman Carlos Pineda with is Citizen Prosperity movement (populist, centre-right) who was leading the opinion polls before his candidacy was suspended by the courts on May 19, also disqualified was the candidature of indigenous leader Thelma Cabrera of the left-wing MLP or the businessman Roberto Arzú of the Podemos party (conservative, right-wing)

My prediction, 2nd round between Torres and a right-wing candidate, right-wing candidate wins 2nd round and his/her presidency may ended up being unpopular and corrupt, and so on... (?)

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1672706643392430081

[MRCVzla]

The election day happened with incidents and accusations of fraud, the votes are counting, are there's a surprise, Bernardo Arévalo from SEMILLA (son of a former left-wing president) is currently going in 2nd place behind UNE' Sandra Torres, still more than 1/3 of the acts counted so this gonna take a while, Mulet and Zury Ríos currently outperforming and VAMOS' Conde getting a "good" result, but most of this i suppose are very rural so in the late count should be more urban/Guatemala City votes, enough for some right-wing candidate to still make the runoff

Under total valid votes
UNE (Torres) 19.9%
SEMILLA (Arévalo) 16.2%
VAMOS (Conde) 10.9%
VIVA (Castillo) 9.8%
CABAL (Mulet) 9.2%
VALOR/UNIONISTA (Ríos) 8.9%
VOS (Villacorta) 5.7%
BIEN (Giovanny Reyes, libcon populist) 3.4%

Acts processed: 38.8%
Turnout: 57.2%
Valid votes: 75.3%
Blank votes: 7.2%
Null/void votes: 17.5%

Election results site: https://www.trep.gt/#!/tc1/ENT

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Wow. Maybe the best result possible for the left (under the circumstances). And almost totally unexpected!

[MRCVzla]

It's pretty much confirmed, the divided right-wing establishment has been defeated for now even using the Justice to barring up popular candidates, Torres (populist christian left) and Arévalo (progressive soclib) are going to the runoff, opinion polls were very wrong as their favorites Mulet and Ríos flopped, Guatemalan people clearly said enough. Counting has processed very fast than I expected.

UNE (Torres) 20.5%
SEMILLA (Arévalo) 15.8%
-----------------------------
VAMOS (Conde) 10.4%
VIVA (Castillo) 9.7%
CABAL (Mulet) 8.9%
VALOR/UNIONISTA (Ríos) 8.8%
VOS (Villacorta) 5.8%
BIEN (Reyes) 3.4%
VICTORIA (Rivera) 3.2%
Others 13.6%

Acts processed: 95.5%
Turnout: 60.3%
Valid votes: 75.6%
Blank votes: 7.0%
Null votes: 17.4%

CONGRESS NATIONWIDE LIST (95% processed)
VAMOS 15.1% (6)
UNE 12.6% (5)
SEMILLA 11.9% (5)
CABAL 9.0% (3)
VIVA 7.0% (3)
VALOR/UNIONISTA 5.5% (2)
VOS 4.5% (1)
TODOS 4.1% (christian/right-wing populist) (1)
URNG-MAIZ/WINAQ (indigenous left) 3.2% (1)
PPN (right-wing UNE split co-founded by Sandra Torres' daughter) 3.1% (1)
VICTORIA 2.8% (1)
BIEN 2.7% (1)
AZUL (conservative, led by pro-Israel businessman Isaac Farchi) 2.4% (1)
ELEFANTE (catch-all populist, linked to former President Alfonso Portillo) 2.3% (1)
Other parties without seat in this constituency 13.7% (along them, Arzú' Podemos 2.1%, libcon CREO 2.0% or Thelma Cabrera' MLP 1.8%)

Valid votes 75.1% / Blank 9.9% / Null 15.0%

[peterthlee]

What a surprising night -- the consistently triumphant right in Guatemala was literally completely shut out of runoff!

[MRCVzla]

Preliminary results for Congress: Giammatei' party VAMOS will be the first minority with 40 seats, followed by UNE (27), Semilla (24), Cabal (18), Valor/Unionista (13), VIVA (9), Todos (6), PP Nosotros (5), Bien (4), VOS (4), Victoria (3), CREO (3) and with 1 seat each: Azul, Cambio, Elefante Community and Winaq-URNG. Either Torres and Arévalo will have to do agreements to pass their laws.

[DL]

So in a total shocker it appears that the runoff will be between two left of centre candidates! Any speculation as to who would be favoured in the runoff between Torres and Arevalo? Who would more rightwing voters view as the "lesser of two evils" or does it even work that way in Guatemala?

[PSOL]

In no way is UNE a center-left party, that title goes to Semilla in the runoff who are the underdogs as the only party not based on continuing as a corrupt patronage machine and will expectedly not get the conservative vote.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

So in a total shocker it appears that the runoff will be between two left of centre candidates! Any speculation as to who would be favoured in the runoff between Torres and Arevalo? Who would more rightwing voters view as the "lesser of two evils" or does it even work that way in Guatemala?

They'll have to choose between Guatemala and Guatepeor

[Hash]

So in a total shocker it appears that the runoff will be between two left of centre candidates! Any speculation as to who would be favoured in the runoff between Torres and Arevalo? Who would more rightwing voters view as the "lesser of two evils" or does it even work that way in Guatemala?

Sandra Torres is about as left-wing as Ron DeSantis at this point, on top of being a venal, corrupt opportunistic career politician. Since 2019, she's more or less stopped even pretending to be left-of-centre, to the point that this year she proclaimed that communism and socialism don't exist and made clear that social programs (the sort of thing she peddles in her campaigns) aren't socialist. Her running-mate is an evangelical pastor from a church which rants about the globalists and Satanic rites, her campaign rhetoric heavily invokes God and the family and her platform is filled with right-wing law and order promises like militarizing public security and her party (UNE) has continued to ally itself with all sorts of corrupt, criminal local clans (party labels and ideological principles are extremely lax for the Guatemalan political class). In Congress over the past four years, her faction of the UNE largely supported the administration's policies, even though Giammattei kept his 2019 promise to 'lock her up', and she's likely received underhanded support from the corrupt and politically-biased attorney general in clearing the charges against her (illegal financing of her 2015 campaign).

Torres has a very large 'anti-vote' or negative vote that's led her to lose two presidential runoffs in a row, in 2015 and 2019, allowing for the comfortable victories of right-wing kleptocrats Jimmy Morales (2015) and Alejandro Giammattei (2019). Torres is very unpopular, particularly amongst the wealthier urban population, because she's widely perceived as a grubby, venal, self-serving corrupt career politician and opportunist (most infamously divorcing her husband, then-president Álvaro Colom, in order to circumvent constitutional provisions to run for president herself in 2011), as well as a dangerous populist who peddles social programs/welfare programs seen as clear vote-buying/clientelistic schemes (obviously the right-wing governments have done the exact same thing). Torres has interpreted her anti-vote as being the result of a strong 'conservative vote', and to some extent she's right, hence why since 2019 she has shifted very far to the right in a (so far) failed attempt to win more votes in urban areas (this year's results indicate that she's failed again - she got just 5.5% in Guatemala City and 9.6% in the department of Guatemala.

Bernardo Arévalo is the son of former president Juan José Arévalo (1945-1951), the first democratically-elected president in Guatemalan history and 'spiritual socialist' who was succeeded by Árbenz. His second-place finish was very much unexpected and seems to be down to a very strong urban vote (nearly 30% in Guatemala City). Arévalo campaigned heavily on corruption and against the political establishment, and unlike Jimmy Morales, his rhetoric seems to be rather genuine and he isn't the pawn of the right-wing kleptocratic system. His success is unexpected good news. Up against him, rather than the latest pawn of the right-wing kleptocratic system, I'm not sure how Torres performs, and how well Arévalo can attract right-wing votes. However, it's worth noting that Torres' performance is her worst result so far (all while her still placing first is a testament to the continued strength of the UNE as a political machine in more rural and poor departments).

[DL]

Thank you for the background on Torres. I only referred to her as left of centre because wikipedia described her and her party as "social democratic" - and most the other candidates sounded much more conservative.

[Edu]

Thank you for the background on Torres. I only referred to her as left of centre because wikipedia described her and her party as "social democratic" - and most the other candidates sounded much more conservative.

I always tend to distrust the wikipedia categories for "ideology" and "political positions", but you should especially not trust them in regards to Latin America lol

[Nhoj]

Thank you for the background on Torres. I only referred to her as left of centre because wikipedia described her and her party as "social democratic" - and most the other candidates sounded much more conservative.

I always tend to distrust the wikipedia categories for "ideology" and "political positions", but you should especially not trust them in regards to Latin America lol

True but now Wikipedia is describing her party as social conservative/populist with citations linking to the party platform. with previous ideology described as "social democracy" center left.  Ofc UNE is still a member of the socialist international with other notable luminaries as PASOK, SMER-SD and Romanian PSD among others.

[PSOL]

It is pretty depressing that the Left of centre parties got the same amount of votes as the prior election. Now, there was mass invalid votes done in protest and I suspect a good amount of that to be indigenous peasantry, and another thing that has changed is that many tactical voted.

Semilla has 20% of the vote locked up, it needs 30% more. Semilla better run on cleaning ship of the Electoral ministry

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Who likely wins the runoff?

[NewYorkExpress]

The Constitutional Court has ordered the results from the first round to be reviewed.

Guatemala could see a vote recount before the second round of its presidential election in August, where former first lady Sandra Torres is expected to face center-left Bernardo Arevalo.

The first round of the vote last weekend presented a highly fractured political landscape in the Central American state, with centrist Torres securing only 15.8% of the ballots to place first.

Even against this background of political division, however, the performance of  her rival Arevalo from the center-left Semilla party was higher than expected — Arevalo received 11.8% of the vote after garnering substantial support in larger cities. This was enough for him to come in second and secure a place in the runoff vote.

The conservative Vamos party's candidate, Mario Conde, took third place with just over 10% of ballots cast in his favor.

Nonetheless, Vamos maintained its lead in Congress, with 39 lawmakers. Torres' party UNE secured 28 seats and Semilla is set to have 23 lawmakers in the 160-member assembly.

On Saturday, Guatemala's constitutional court ordered the results from the first round of presidential elections to be reviewed.

https://twitter.com/BArevalodeLeon/status/1675328459973722113

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://twitter.com/SecBlinken/status/1675614535233798144?s=20

[MRCVzla]

Two updates, Guatemalan' Supreme Court ruled against the right-wing parties who wanted to appeal the 1st round results, meaning the OK to the Electoral Court to validate the results
https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1678554983648878593

Despite this, the right-wing establishment tries to get away with it in form of a judge orders the suspension of the "Bernie" Arévalo' Semilla Movement party register (violating the Constitution as the Electoral and Political Parties Law says a suspension of a  party' register can only happen six months AFTER the whole electoral process ended), the Electoral Court anyway confirmed the Torres-Arévalo runoff in the middle of this another "electoral coup" attempt.
https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1679295914626916353

[PSOL]

I don't think Semilla unilaterally governing to the Center will save them from a possible coup. It is clear that the Guatemalan mafias will not tolerate being pushed into the sidelines and waiting for the next election, they will try to remove Arevalo if presented the opportunity.

In a lot of ways, Guatemala resembles Peru in its political orientation and governing structure.

[PSOL]

I spoke too late, the autogolpe was obvious

Hopefully a repeat of the Bolivian corrective people's revolution frees the people of the grip of the oligarchy and their associates

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1679575686959484928?s=20

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1679575914240442368?s=20

Seems like unless both candidates are completely out of the picture, someone who's not a fan of this decision will be in office soon. Of course, the former possibility is still a big one.

[NewYorkExpress]

The police have raided the offices of Movimento Semilla.

Guatemalan police have raided the offices of the progressive Movimiento Semilla or Seed Movement, a political party whose presidential candidate Bernardo Arevalo defied expectations to advance to the second round of the country’s upcoming elections.

In the wake of Friday’s raid, Arevalo accused Guatemala’s attorney general’s office of “political persecution”.


“The raid is an attempt to continue the intimidation and to try to scare us,” Arevalo told the Guatemalan newspaper La Prensa Libre. “What they are doing is illegal and spurious.”

The raid on the Seed Movement’s headquarters is the latest controversial move in a closely watched election, where observers fear democratic norms are being shattered.

[MRCVzla]

The second round between Sandra Torres and Bernardo Arévalo is tomorrow, despite the judicial and State persecution from the Public Ministry against Arévalo' Semilla Movement (and the TSE), the Supreme Court today has ruled in favor of Semilla, granting a Amparo in the case of the suspension of the party registration until at least after Sunday.

The latest polls prior to election day indicate that Arévalo would win with even more than 60%, capitalizing on the anti-corruption vote and discontent against the "corrupt pact" that Torres's UNE and the conservative parties that were left out of the 2nd round would allegedly represent (like the President Giammatei' VAMOS party). Arévalo in the latest phase of his campaign has been in a conciliatory tone in favor of the "reestablishment of the Rule of Law" while Torres has turned more to the right with the typical conservative criticism of issues of "progressive" ideology influenced by evangelical churches moving away from social democratic positions, perceived as the "candidate of the system".

Nothing can be ruled out if tomorrow's election ends up closer than expected, everything remains in the hands of the Guatemalan people.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://twitter.com/peoplesdispatch/status/1693265885526438186?s=20

Seems like Arevalo is the obvious better choice here; let's hope he pulls through. Two big Presidential elections in Latin America in one day!

[MRCVzla]

Official results page: https://segundaeleccion.trep.gt/#!/tc1/ENT
First results reported are very early, around 300 of the 24,749 acts, Torres was leading but Arévalo seems gaining steam and now leads, still too close to call.

A member of the TSE has reportedly resigned due to her receiving death threats.