Russian electoral-type events 2023-24

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

Every election in Russia is faker than the one that came before it. At this point the only results that could allow the faintest amount of analysis are from Russians abroad, but even that’s doubtful.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

How many votes did "ceasefire now" get?

*sitcom laugh track*

[jaichind]

75% counted.  Putin at 87.1%

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Putin does have majority support, though obviously him getting 88% in Moscow is dubious at best. And Chechnya is flat out absurd.
It's likely that the war in Ukraine has pushed up Putin's own support base up in proportion regardless.

[lfromnj]

https://voteabroad.info/#results-block

International abroad results. Actually pretty big anti Putin swings. Back in 2018/2012 the only real areas which voted against Putin was the US/France/UK. Now it seems most areas have swung against Putin abroad. Some like Latvia seem to be somewhat counter rigged against Putin but even Serbia only has 3% Putin(likely due to a lot of expats fleeing the war) Still a pretty major swing since 2012 where 70% voted for him. Greece is still holding strong at majority Putin but much weaker than before. Italy seems to be the only spot where I don't see any drop in support for Putin.

[PSOL]

Every election in Russia is faker than the one that came before it. At this point the only results that could allow the faintest amount of analysis are from Russians abroad, but even that’s doubtful.

The Smart Voting phenomenon produced arguably less rigged results thanks to unity among the opposition.

Obviously voting for the Russian DSA produced…questionable results but it did scare the Russian government enough to snowball into Ukraine

[Annatar]

Putin is on track to receive more votes than any European leader has in history.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Why is jaichind treating this as if it's a real election?

he's been pretty open about being on Russia and China's side generally



anyway, if this election had been free and fair I am certain Putin would've won anyway. Probably something like high 50s low 60s. Maybe mid 50s at worst. I have no delusion that he lacks popular support, he absolutely has a majority behind him. But people with the level of power he does don't want to give any impression of opposition to their "amazing governance". This has been true for his entire presidency! Back during the Kursk disaster there was a woman screaming at Putin during some event about how his incompetence killed her son (or husband, I forgot her relation to one of the victims but she was close to them) and he had her restrained and tranquilized.

[All Along The Watchtower]

It's likely that the war in Ukraine has pushed up Putin's own support base up in proportion regardless.

No, that’s not likely at all. Rather the opposite.

What is likely—indeed, more than likely; certain—is that the war in Ukraine has pushed up the cost of opposing Putin, and made the Kremlin more determined than ever to not even have a hint of an alternative out there of any kind.

[smoltchanov]

Agree with a statement above: Putin could hold absolutely free and fair elections, and (even with alive and healthy Navalny) would rather easily win with about 60% of vote. But he needed "nearly unanimous support" to continue his actions in Ukraine and other areas. That support was guaranteed by exclusion of "inconvenient" candidates and other means. He really had "three nobodies", who, in reality, were even afraid to criticize ANY of his actions, "against" him. Hence - expected result.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Agree with a statement above: Putin could hold absolutely free and fair elections, and (even with alive and healthy Navalny) would rather easily win with about 60% of vote. But he needed "nearly unanimous support" to continue his actions in Ukraine and other areas. That support was guaranteed by exclusion of "inconvenient" candidates and other means. He really had "three nobodies", who, in reality, were even afraid to criticize ANY of his actions, "against" him. Hence - expected result.

Agreed. He could have won a fair and free election, but has too much ego for that.

[jaichind]

99.76% counted.  Putin at 87.29%

[adma]

anyway, if this election had been free and fair I am certain Putin would've won anyway. Probably something like high 50s low 60s. Maybe mid 50s at worst. I have no delusion that he lacks popular support, he absolutely has a majority behind him. But people with the level of power he does don't want to give any impression of opposition to their "amazing governance". This has been true for his entire presidency!

Cf. Trump vs Nikki Haley?

[jaichind]

Putin will most likely end up with ~76 million votes which would be in the rough area of what Biden and Trump will get in 2024.  It will be interesting to see if either Biden or Trump beat Putin's numbers.  I suspect neither will.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's just desperately sad to see people treating these laughable 'results' even semi-seriously. Even the old Commie hacks during the Cold War didn't pretend, as a rule, that Eastern Bloc elections were 'real'; they made other excuses. Sad, sad, sad.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

It's just desperately sad to see people treating these laughable 'results' even semi-seriously. Even the old Commie hacks during the Cold War didn't pretend, as a rule, that Eastern Bloc elections were 'real'; they made other excuses. Sad, sad, sad.

What were the other excuses ? you've got any primary sources on this ?

[Sir Mohamed]

LOL, jaichind pretending this is an actual election.

Western leaders honestly should not only refuse to congratulate him, technically that would also mean we no longer recognize Putin as the legitimate leader of Russia. Not that it makes a huge difference in reality, would still be important symbolically.

[Compuzled_One]

Damn, they didn't even try making it seem legit.

[All Along The Watchtower]

It's just desperately sad to see people treating these laughable 'results' even semi-seriously. Even the old Commie hacks during the Cold War didn't pretend, as a rule, that Eastern Bloc elections were 'real'; they made other excuses. Sad, sad, sad.

Agree, I’d rather have a legitimate elected leader like Lukashenko.

[President Johnson]

Putin is on track to receive more votes than any European leader has in history.

"Votes"

[warandwar]

It's just desperately sad to see people treating these laughable 'results' even semi-seriously. Even the old Commie hacks during the Cold War didn't pretend, as a rule, that Eastern Bloc elections were 'real'; they made other excuses. Sad, sad, sad.

What were the other excuses ? you've got any primary sources on this ?

They measured popular participation and mobilization in the symbolic excercise - Samantha Lomb wrote an interesting book on Stalin's Constitutiom of 1936 and the participatory (but not democratic) exercises around it. Open access: https://www.routledge.com/Stalins-Constitution-Soviet-Participatory-Politics-and-the-Discussion-of-the-1936-Draft-Constitution/Lomb/p/book/9780367348854

Similarly here - it wasnt a competitive free election but the government does want there to be participation in it - i think especially in occupied ukraine there was a real competition among the hack rulers to demonstrate high turnout (and not just lazily stuff ballots but do the hard gumshoe work of harassing old ladies to vote).

[smoltchanov]

It's just desperately sad to see people treating these laughable 'results' even semi-seriously. Even the old Commie hacks during the Cold War didn't pretend, as a rule, that Eastern Bloc elections were 'real'; they made other excuses. Sad, sad, sad.

Agree, I’d rather have a legitimate elected leader like Lukashenko.

Is he really "legitimate"? I have some doubts))))

[jaichind]

Turnout adjusted to 77.44%  I think there were a bunch of spoiled ballots which I have to assume is the Navalny vote.   This breaks the 1991 record for turnout.

[jaichind]

Registered voters per election since 1991

1991   106.5 million
1996   108.5 million
2000   109.4 million
2004   108.0 million
2008   107.2 million
2012   109.9 million
2018   109.0 million
2024   114.2 million

There was a large drop in birth rates in the 1990s which one should see show up starting in the early 2010s in terms of registered voters.   I guess that trend is outweighed in 2024 by the addition of the population acquired in the new territories annexed from Ukraine.

[CumbrianLefty]

It's just desperately sad to see people treating these laughable 'results' even semi-seriously. Even the old Commie hacks during the Cold War didn't pretend, as a rule, that Eastern Bloc elections were 'real'; they made other excuses. Sad, sad, sad.

Agree, I’d rather have a legitimate elected leader like Lukashenko.

Is he really "legitimate"? I have some doubts))))

I think, as they say, "that's the joke".