2026 Senate Retirements

[Zedonathin2020]

?

[CelestialAlchemy]

For fun, I voted for all of them to retire.

[NewYorkExpress]

Jeanne Shaheen's already filed for reelection.

I can't imagine Mitch McConnell running for another term, and I think he's definitely going to retire if Trump is President, as I doubt he wants that headache again (he might even resign early in that scenario.). Other than that, the only retirements from the 2026 class that I think have at least a 30% chance of happening are John Hickenlooper (who I don't think ever really wanted to be a Senator, I think he got strongarmed into the 2020 race by the national party. I think he wanted to stay in the Presidential race back in 2020) and Susan Collins (Who I think retires rather than facing a likely loss to Jared Golden in a Trump or Biden midterm-I think she's DOA no matter who's President in 2026).

[Landslide Lyndon]

I hope Durbin retires. He is a nice guy but his mindset is still stuck in the era of Mike Mansfield and Bob Dole.

[LastMcGovernite]

I think Risch, Durbin, Markey, and Reed will retire. Hopefully Collins, but I'm not that lucky.

[They not like us]

McConnell, Risch, Reed, and Markey. Not sure that Collins or Durbin are ready to throw in the towel yet.

I think Reed and Markey will feel comfortable retiring because there will be deep, deep benches to replace them. Sabina Matos could very easily elevate from Congress to the Senate after winning the RI-01 primary (if she does win) and I would put Pressley or Wu in the driver's seat to win the primary to replace Markey.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

McConnell, Risch, Reed, and Markey. Not sure that Collins or Durbin are ready to throw in the towel yet.

I think Reed and Markey will feel comfortable retiring because there will be deep, deep benches to replace them. Sabina Matos could very easily elevate from Congress to the Senate after winning the RI-01 primary (if she does win) and I would put Pressley or Wu in the driver's seat to win the primary to replace Markey.

These plus Cornyn and Graham. SMC in WV also is getting old and potentially could retire, same as Tillis.

[Tekken_Guy]

McConnell, Risch, Reed, and Markey. Not sure that Collins or Durbin are ready to throw in the towel yet.

I think Reed and Markey will feel comfortable retiring because there will be deep, deep benches to replace them. Sabina Matos could very easily elevate from Congress to the Senate after winning the RI-01 primary (if she does win) and I would put Pressley or Wu in the driver's seat to win the primary to replace Markey.

What about Seth Magaziner for the RI seat?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's unknown until we know the results of 24 but I expect Cornyn and McConnell to retire if Ds get the Filibuster proof Trifecta and Julian Castro to run for Cornyn v Crenshaw

Beshear isn't interested in running for Veep but if reelected he can run for S in 26 especially on a Filibuster proof Trifecta

[coloradocowboi]

John Hickenlooper is a possibility. He’s already in his 70s and will certainly face a competitive primary.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

John Hickenlooper is a possibility. He’s already in his 70s and will certainly face a competitive primary.

Who do you see challenging him in the Senate primary?

I think he probably has one more term in him at least. Same as Warner and Shaheen.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

John Hickenlooper is a possibility. He’s already in his 70s and will certainly face a competitive primary.

Who do you see challenging him in the Senate primary?

I think he probably has one more term in him at least. Same as Warner and Shaheen.

Lmao why would he face a primary when he's been a party-line vote on everything. He hasn't even voted for any bipartisan bills that are controversial with the base.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why are we worried about S retirement im 26 and we haven't Finished 24 it's obvious that it's gonna depend on 24, users that make threads are so in a rush

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

John Hickenlooper is a possibility. He’s already in his 70s and will certainly face a competitive primary.

Who do you see challenging him in the Senate primary?

I think he probably has one more term in him at least. Same as Warner and Shaheen.

Lmao why would he face a primary when he's been a party-line vote on everything. He hasn't even voted for any bipartisan bills that are controversial with the base.

Yeah, Colorado doesn't have much of a progressive bench looking for a big race and he's got a high approval rating. It's also insanely hard to primary a Senate incumbent.

[UncleSam]

McConnell for sure. With how old senators are serving nowadays I’m honestly not sure on any of the rest, but Risch, Reed, and Markey are definitely possibilities.

Who succeeds McConnell is the big question. Marco Rubio?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

McConnell for sure. With how old senators are serving nowadays I’m honestly not sure on any of the rest, but Risch, Reed, and Markey are definitely possibilities.

Who succeeds McConnell is the big question. Marco Rubio?

Not Rubio, Thune, Barrasso, are two of the likeliest (current Rep whip and Rep conference chair). Maybe Dianes (RSCC) or Ernst (conference vice chair). As of right now my moneys on Thune, but he might have a McCarthy problem with the nut jobs if the senate.

[coloradocowboi]

John Hickenlooper is a possibility. He’s already in his 70s and will certainly face a competitive primary.

Who do you see challenging him in the Senate primary?

I think he probably has one more term in him at least. Same as Warner and Shaheen.

Lmao why would he face a primary when he's been a party-line vote on everything. He hasn't even voted for any bipartisan bills that are controversial with the base.

Yeah, Colorado doesn't have much of a progressive bench looking for a big race and he's got a high approval rating. It's also insanely hard to primary a Senate incumbent.

1. To Shaula’s point (which isn’t even true), before hick slid back to the left, he was almost beat by a nobody center-left state rep who left office a decade ago because of his many scandals and relationship to the oil industry. He still takes plenty of anti-environment votes and pro-business votes that people in this forum might not be aware of but environmentalists in CO are. Your enemies just don’t magically disappear in politics because you’ve managed to slightly alter your personal brand.

2. Another nobody (pseudo) progressive state legislator from a decade ago just btfo Hick’s chief of staff in the Denver mayoral election. The bench isn’t nonexistent, though I dk if somebody like Jena Griswold would consider the risk of a primary truthfully. There doesn’t need to be an AOC waiting to happen. She was a nobody herself before she became a progressive icon

3. They don’t even have to be progressive. Hickenlooper’s major weakness is closeness to oil and gas in a state where they are economically more irrelevant than they were even a decade ago. IIRC he just voted to allow oil exploration in ANWAR. How tf is that gonna play with middle class, highly educated goody two shoes in Colorado? On this issue he basically votes like Joe Manchin while living in an even more progressive Oregon.

4. Colorado has a very large and politically active youth voter subset so we really can’t say what would happen. To reiterate, hickenlooper barely beat Romanoff 60-40 in a year when he could argue that we needed a moderate candidate to knock off Cory Gardner. The idea that he is just gonna stomp to re-election against some Bernie endorsed candidate is an assumption more than anything supported by data and the state of politics on the ground

And anyway my whole point was that if somebody even tries he might just give in because it’s a lot of effort for a job that will pay a lot less than whatever he does next. Not once did I even say that I think he would lose the primary lol

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Neguese would probably beat Hickenlooper should he run for the senate. Crow and Pettersen probably would too. As Coloradocowboi said Colorado is a nature loving state and having a Senator cozy to oil and gas ruffles a lot of feathers.

On the flip oil and gas are big industries in the state, anyone whose driven through Commerce City knows this, I don’t doubt they’d throw money at hickenlooper to prop him up.

[MillennialModerate]

Mitch McConnell• RUNNING • I mean if he’s still not majority leader and has no realistic path of it insight I could see him stepping down but otherwise unlikely

Jeanne Shaheen • TOSSUP • tough call. I think she’ll want to retire but the NHDP might push for her to stay

Jim Risch •RETIRING  Uhhh retiring I guess?

Lindsey Graham •RUNNING • Who are we kidding? He has nothing else. This is it. No way he retires…. then he might have to accept some things about him

 Mark Warner • TOSS-UP • tough call. I think much like Shaheen he may want to but the prospects of Youngkin going after this seat will force him to run again

John Cornyn • RUNNING • If Republicans win the White House and are underwater in late ‘25 I could see him considering leaving but unlikely

Jack Reed • RETIRING • its a Safe seat, he’s been there a while and doesn’t strike me as someone that needs his seat in order to breath

Susan Collins • RUNNING • Shes not going anywhere - she’s a classic insider and the seat is long gone if someone else runs for the GOP

Dick Durbin • RUNNING • Another insider but I could envision him stepping down but I’d consider it unlikely unless there was some young Dem star on the rise aiming for the seat

Ed Markey • RUNNING • This swamp creature no-good hack is running until his last breath. He’s done practically nothing of note for Massachusetts. He’s never in the state for starters and he’s a political chameleon…. liberal to liberals, moderate to moderates. Sadly this state is stuck with his goofy ass for a while.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Dick Durbin • RUNNING • Another insider but I could envision him stepping down but I’d consider it unlikely unless there was some young Dem star on the rise aiming for the seat

I feel Lauren Underwood fits the bill of a young dem star, and she’s from Naperville which is probably as “downstate” as Durbin can get in the foreseeable future, unless they get Budzinski to run but I think Underwood is favored.

[MarkD]

Collins, Cornyn, and McConnell.
Durbin and Reed.

[Tekken_Guy]

Dick Durbin • RUNNING • Another insider but I could envision him stepping down but I’d consider it unlikely unless there was some young Dem star on the rise aiming for the seat

I feel Lauren Underwood fits the bill of a young dem star, and she’s from Naperville which is probably as “downstate” as Durbin can get in the foreseeable future, unless they get Budzinski to run but I think Underwood is favored.

What about Sean Casten? Would he possibly run for senate?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

- Collins is possible, but unlikely (I get wannabe lifer vibes from her)

- Bernie is possible, but I think he’s probably a lifer

- Ed Markey will be 80 and I could see him calling it a day if the Senate flips, but I think it’s more likely he sticks around

- Jack Reed is definitely possible if Democrats lose the Senate in 2024 and look unlikely to take it back in 2026

- Bill Cassidy is definitely a possibility depending on Trump’s influence in the Republican Party; he’ll be 69 and not have the stomach for a tough inter-party battle (he voted to convict Trump and Republicans will likely be reminded of that constantly by any Republican challenger)

- I think McConnell runs despite being very vulnerable in the primary, but I suppose he could call it a day if he thinks he’ll lose the primary.

- I think Jim Risch is the most likely retirement and he’ll be 83, but he may stick around depending on how 2024 goes simply b/c he’ll be a committee chair if the Senate flips

- Hickenlooper will be 74 and there’s really no reason for him to stick around, but I assume he ran for Senate in 2020 b/c he wants to stretch his political career as long as he can, so I’m not getting my hopes up

- Martin Heinrich is reportedly considering a Gubernatorial run, but even if the Senate flips in 2024, I suspect he’ll ultimately stay put

If I had to predict, I’d say Risch and Cassidy don’t run and if the Senate flips in 2024, then neither does Jack Reed.  Markey and McConnell definitely wouldn’t surprise me either, but I think they’ve got another term in them.

Cornyn has leadership aspirations, so they’ll almost certainly run again.  I suppose if McConnell runs again, Cornyn might not seek reelection as he’d be 80 by the earliest subsequent opportunity go for Senate Republican Leader rolls around (assuming McConnell wins his primary which is far from a sure thing), but I still think he’s a lifer.

Durbin will be 82 and is probably too old to ever become Senate Democratic Leader (and that’s for the best), but he has the number two job and I think he’s a lifer much like Cornyn.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No one is retiring until the Ds see if they get a Filibuster proof Trifecta McConnell is likely out and Beshear likely in if Beshear reelected and Ds net Filibuster proof Trifecta Beshear has zero interest in Veep he wants to serve KY and Wes Moore will be Harris VEEP anyways

[DaleCooper]

McConnell seriously risks losing a primary.