A time traveler tells you a Dem is POTUS in 2029, which scenario is more likely?

[Sir Mohamed]

Imagine a time traveler from the summer of 2029 tells you a Democrat occupies the Oval Office. He doesn't say who, though. What would you guess happened in the meantime? Biden won reelection in 2024 and is succeeded by another Dem? Or that he lost to Trump or RDS and another Dem is either elected to succeed Trump or unseats DeSantis.

I would say latter scenario is somewhat more likely since a party pulling 3 consecutive wins is hard to archieve.

[Zedonathin2020]

Biden loses to Trump in 2024, who’s Vice President then gets crushed in 2028 by pretty much any Democrat who gets the nomination.

[Ferguson97]

Biden loses in 2024 but then wins a non-consecutive second term in 2028. /s

In all seriousness, I would guess that Harris won in 2028 and the GOP fumbled an easily winnable election.

[MarkD]

I think Biden winning reelection and then the Dems winning 2028 too, for three in a row, is very plausible.

[Skill and Chance]

The 2nd is much more likely, because the leading R candidate for 2024 is ineligible to run in 2028. 

[Person Man]

The 2nd is much more likely, because the leading R candidate for 2024 is ineligible to run in 2028. 

He could be saved by the business cycle, but it could simply exacerbate the situation if 2023 turns out to be more like 2014/2015 (there was a slowdown but no recession and it was followed by BAU instead of a slow recovery) than 2008.

[Sir Mohamed]

I think Biden winning reelection and then the Dems winning 2028 too, for three in a row, is very plausible.

As a result of demographic changes and the GOP getting even more insane?

[MarkD]

I think Biden winning reelection and then the Dems winning 2028 too, for three in a row, is very plausible.

As a result of demographic changes and the GOP getting even more insane?

The latter.

[Skill and Chance]

The 2nd is much more likely, because the leading R candidate for 2024 is ineligible to run in 2028. 

He could be saved by the business cycle, but it could simply exacerbate the situation if 2023 turns out to be more like 2014/2015 (there was a slowdown but no recession and it was followed by BAU instead of a slow recovery) than 2008.

While I don't think we are in one now (we have other problems related to inflation and debt), the likelihood that there will be a significant economic downturn sometime by the end of 2028 is historically very high. 

Nothing repeats exactly, but I like the historical comparison to 1892/96 for 2024/28.

[Person Man]

The 2nd is much more likely, because the leading R candidate for 2024 is ineligible to run in 2028. 

He could be saved by the business cycle, but it could simply exacerbate the situation if 2023 turns out to be more like 2014/2015 (there was a slowdown but no recession and it was followed by BAU instead of a slow recovery) than 2008.

While I don't think we are in one now (we have other problems related to inflation and debt), the likelihood that there will be a significant economic downturn sometime by the end of 2028 is historically very high. 

Nothing repeats exactly, but I like the historical comparison to 1892/96 for 2024/28.

I think you understand. What I am trying to say is that if Trump wins despite a BAU economy, it is very likely that his VP will have to deal with running during a recession or very early recovery. It would be 2008 all over again. There is also the chance that the economy enters a period of extreme stability like it might have done but for COVID.

[Vosem]

I think Biden winning reelection and then the Dems winning 2028 too, for three in a row, is very plausible.

As a result of demographic changes and the GOP getting even more insane?

These don't seem easily separable.

I think the likelihood of DD for 2024/2028 is greater than RD, just because Democrats are narrow favorites in any particular presidential election because of the GOP's national strategy. However, the likelihood that the next two elections are either RD or DR is higher than them being DD.

[Devils30]

The 2nd is much more likely, because the leading R candidate for 2024 is ineligible to run in 2028. 

He could be saved by the business cycle, but it could simply exacerbate the situation if 2023 turns out to be more like 2014/2015 (there was a slowdown but no recession and it was followed by BAU instead of a slow recovery) than 2008.

While I don't think we are in one now (we have other problems related to inflation and debt), the likelihood that there will be a significant economic downturn sometime by the end of 2028 is historically very high. 

Nothing repeats exactly, but I like the historical comparison to 1892/96 for 2024/28.

Or 2020/2024 is the same as 1896/1900. The rematch has all of this.

[Ferguson97]

I think Biden winning reelection and then the Dems winning 2028 too, for three in a row, is very plausible.

As a result of demographic changes and the GOP getting even more insane?

These don't seem easily separable.

I think the likelihood of DD for 2024/2028 is greater than RD, just because Democrats are narrow favorites in any particular presidential election because of the GOP's national strategy. However, the likelihood that the next two elections are either RD or DR is higher than them being DD.

From most to least likely
1. DR
2. DD
3. RD
4. RR

[TwinGeeks99]

Considering the trajectory 2024 is heading, I would assume the GOP learned nothing from a 2024 defeat and doubled down on their unpopular extreme rhetoric. Combine this with more of Generation Z reaching voting age and the time traveler's information would make sense.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think Biden winning reelection and then the Dems winning 2028 too, for three in a row, is very plausible.

As a result of demographic changes and the GOP getting even more insane?

These don't seem easily separable.

I think the likelihood of DD for 2024/2028 is greater than RD, just because Democrats are narrow favorites in any particular presidential election because of the GOP's national strategy. However, the likelihood that the next two elections are either RD or DR is higher than them being DD.

From most to least likely
1. DR
2. DD
3. RD
4. RR

RR is more likely than RD unless that R president is Trump which would make 2028 an open election .

[President Johnson]

I honestly would say equally likely.

[Ferguson97]

RR is more likely than RD unless that R president is Trump which would make 2028 an open election .

Usually people use "unless" when issuing qualifications about unlikely scenarios (the implication is that the inverse is the default outcome), but it is extremely likely that Trump will be the Republican nominee for president in 2024.

I consider Trump dying to be a more likely outcome than Trump losing the primary.

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

Biden loses to Trump in 2024, who’s Vice President then gets crushed in 2028 by pretty much any Democrat who gets the nomination.

Depending on the state of the economy it’s entirely possible that could be a 2008 2.0 type scenario and maybe ever so slightly decrease the current level of polarization.

[WalterWhite]

There has been a general pattern in American politics for a while; the parties of successive presidents generally alternate.

George Herbert Walker Bush - Republican
William Clinton - Democrat
George Walker Bush - Republican
Barack Hussein Obama - Democrat
Donald John Trump - Republican
Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. - Democrat

This pattern occurs because of resentment of ruling parties.

Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. cannot be POTUS in 2029. If a Democrat is POTUS in 2029, that means that the previous POTUS must have been a Republican, which must have meant that a Republican won 2024.

[TodayJunior]

Trump loses to Biden in 2024, and then a younger more progressive Dem wins narrowly in 2028. Yes it is difficult to win three consecutive elections, but I am more inclined to believe the GOP base just won't let Trump go...yes even then. We are entering an era of Democratic dominance at the federal level and we're ideologically a moderate-left country now, so D/D for '24/'28. Easily.

[E-Dawg]

a party pulling 3 consecutive wins is hard to achieve.

I disagree, it came very close to happening in 2000 and 2016. I think the fact that it hasn't happened since HW Bush is more of a coincidence than anything.

[Xing]

I would guess that Biden lost to Trump in 2024, then Republicans cosmically fail to defend Trump’s record without him at the top of the ticket and get crushed in 2028.

[President Johnson]

There has been a general pattern in American politics for a while; the parties of successive presidents generally alternate.

George Herbert Walker Bush - Republican
William Clinton - Democrat
George Walker Bush - Republican
Barack Hussein Obama - Democrat
Donald John Trump - Republican
Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. - Democrat

This pattern occurs because of resentment of ruling parties.

Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. cannot be POTUS in 2029. If a Democrat is POTUS in 2029, that means that the previous POTUS must have been a Republican, which must have meant that a Republican won 2024.

Well, patterns exist until they don't. It's like predicting in early 1981 that Reagan was going to die in office because of the curse of Tippecanoe.

[ShadowRocket]

I think Option 1 given the current likelihood of Trump being the GOP nominee in 2024.

[dw93]

Equal odds of:

1. Biden wins re election, resigns midway through the term and Harris ascends to the Presidency. The GOP in turn nominates a MTG/Gaetzesque whack job to run against President Harris, who narrowly wins her party a third consecutive term in the White House.

2. The economy goes into recession next year allowing Trump to narrowly win the EC, while losing the PV. A Trump term more or less goes as expected. Trump is term limited and either his VP (a total whack job) or Don Jr. (another whack job) gets the nomination as Trump's heir. Meanwhile the Democrats nominated one of the rising stars that got elected/re elected in the 2018-2022 timeframe (Whitmer, Shapiro, Ossoff, Warnock, etc..). The Democrats go on to win the Presidency decisively and build on the gains made in a blue wave of 2026.