2004: Bush v. McCain v. Dean

[YRABNNRM]

Let's say all of the following occurs...

-In early 2001, John McCain switches his party affiliation to the Democrats after the bitter battle between himself and Bush.
-McCain creates a moderate liberal but still centrist voting record. He votes for the Iraq War but is highly critical of the Bush Administration on everything (from the way the war is run to economics on the home front).
-In late 2002, McCain declares that he will seek the Democratic nomination for President of the United States in 2004. McCain's biggest challenger is Governor Howard Dean of Vermont who hails McCain as a DINO and only in the party to seek revenge on GWB.
-Despite the attacks on McCain, he goes on to win the Democratic nomination and selects close friend Senator John Kerry as his running mate.
-Dean announces that he will be running as an Independent and that Senator Tom Harkin will be his running mate.

So now we have...
Bush/Cheney
McCain/Kerry
Dean/Harkin

What does the election look like?
How dirty does the McCain/Bush battle get?
What kind of effect does Dean have?

[Reignman]

Dean siphons off from McCain more votes than McCain picks up from Bush. Popular vote result is something like:

Bush 48%
McCain 44%
Dean 8%

Image Link

Bush wins 296 to 242. Nader chooses not to run and endorses Dean. Bush wins Arizona by only 5%.

[Mr. Morden]

If McCain is running as a Democrat, and Dean a left-wing independent, then I assume that Bush wins.  The more interesting Bush v. McCain v. Dean is if, some time in 2001, McCain leaves the GOP and becomes an unaligned independent (refusing to caucus with either party), builds up a centrist voting record, and then runs as a centrist independent in 2004 against both Bush and Democratic nominee Howard Dean (or, if you prefer, Democratic nominee John Kerry).  Is there any way that McCain could actually pull off a victory in this scenario?

[True Democrat]

If McCain only talks about the war in Iraq, I could see this scenario as a possibility.  However, IIRC, Dean is actually pretty moderate in other regards.