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[smoltchanov]

The Democrat will lose, whether it’s a gay black liberal greenie or Theodore Bilbo’s ghost. Pressley will decisively lose.

An interesting question (for me, at least) - why voters for a long time made a distinction between "national Democrats" and, say, "Mississippi Democrats", and then (rather suddenly) stopped to do that? For a long time Mississippi voters were more then liking to vote Republican for President, sometimes - for Republican candidates for Congress or Governor, but time after time voted for their Democratic state legislators and local officials (usually - rather conservative, though, typically - less so, then their Republican counterparts). And then almost everything stopped, almost all voting went along "party lines" and difference between "national Democrats" and "Mississippi Democrats" - suddenly vanished in people's mind. The same - in rural Louisiana and Alabama, the same - in Florida panhandle, and so on. And all this - in less then 15 years (very short time by historic standards), 15 years ago (and even 10) there were tons of locally elected conservative Democrats, now even remaining (few, of course) Democratic conservatives usually have no chances. People became more dumb and vote as robots? Or what?

[Kleine Scheiße]

Lean-Likely R

[NewYorkExpress]

Likely R.

Reeves is unpopular enough that he can lose, and Presley is conservative enough that it's possible he can pull in the crossover needed to win, but it is still Mississippi.

I will say that Democrats have a better chance of winning here than holding Louisiana, though they have slightly worse odds of picking up this seat as opposed to Beshear winning reelection.

[smoltchanov]

I will say that Democrats have a better chance of winning here than holding Louisiana, though they have slightly worse odds of picking up this seat as opposed to Beshear winning reelection.

Well, Presley is white, and that gives him few percentage advantage over Wilson, but in reality Presley chances are about 5%, while Wilson's - zero.

[Jay 🏳️‍⚧️]

The Democrat will lose, whether it’s a gay black liberal greenie or Theodore Bilbo’s ghost. Pressley will decisively lose.

An interesting question (for me, at least) - why voters for a long time made a distinction between "national Democrats" and, say, "Mississippi Democrats", and then (rather suddenly) stopped to do that? For a long time Mississippi voters were more then liking to vote Republican for President, sometimes - for Republican candidates for Congress or Governor, but time after time voted for their Democratic state legislators and local officials (usually - rather conservative, though, typically - less so, then their Republican counterparts). And then almost everything stopped, almost all voting went along "party lines" and difference between "national Democrats" and "Mississippi Democrats" - suddenly vanished in people's mind. The same - in rural Louisiana and Alabama, the same - in Florida panhandle, and so on. And all this - in less then 15 years (very short time by historic standards), 15 years ago (and even 10) there were tons of locally elected conservative Democrats, now even remaining (few, of course) Democratic conservatives usually have no chances. People became more dumb and vote as robots? Or what?

All politics are national, nowadays. Before the explosion of cable and online news  people tended to get their news from local newspapers, local television stations, and whatever their cup of tea was for a national nightly news.

Elections used to be more focused on local news; if your governor had a controversial education policy, them and the representatives that backed it would have to answer for that. States in the Midwest would have ag policy be a top concern, and issues that didn’t really have any relevance (like the border in Nebraska, for example) would fall to the wayside.

But now there’s a proliferation of cable and online news and anyone can really fall into the echo chambers they want to listen to now. If you were a Republican in 1982 you had no choice but to listen to the bad things happening to the Reagan admin, and Democrats in 1978 had to listen to the bad things happening to Carter.

Nowadays you don’t have to listen to objective news if you don’t want to. This is a major problem in both liberal and conservative media, but it’s really been conservative media pushing the “all Democrats are bad!” narrative. If you’re a Republican and your long time Democratic state rep is running for re-election, you might have some pause knowing that they might be backing the same agenda you’re told to hate, and vote differently. Though I also have to note that in many cases the downballot effect only collapsed when these Democrats retired. Once incumbency went away, the floor fell out.

TL;DR: national news means all politics are nationalized

Oh, and my answer is likely R. The only way Reeves loses is if there is a catastrophic collapse in white turnout

[Suburbia]

Likely R

[Galeel]

A mental exercize: would Jim Eastland-type candidate (i mean Eastland of 1970th, not 1950th, i.e. - conservative, but, essentially, not overly racist anymore) win governor election NOW (suppose - he is running unopposed in primary, and nomination is guaranteed), or Democratic label would sink even such candidate? Does final result depends on candidate and his/her views or purely on party membership?

This happened in 2019

[smoltchanov]

A mental exercize: would Jim Eastland-type candidate (i mean Eastland of 1970th, not 1950th, i.e. - conservative, but, essentially, not overly racist anymore) win governor election NOW (suppose - he is running unopposed in primary, and nomination is guaranteed), or Democratic label would sink even such candidate? Does final result depends on candidate and his/her views or purely on party membership?

This happened in 2019

Hood? He was much more liberal then Eastland. I meant real conservative, not a person whom liberals call "conservative". For some even Dianne Feinstein is a "conservative" (i laughed heartily when i read this....)

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

The Democrat will lose, whether it’s a gay black liberal greenie or Theodore Bilbo’s ghost. Pressley will decisively lose.

An interesting question (for me, at least) - why voters for a long time made a distinction between "national Democrats" and, say, "Mississippi Democrats", and then (rather suddenly) stopped to do that? For a long time Mississippi voters were more then liking to vote Republican for President, sometimes - for Republican candidates for Congress or Governor, but time after time voted for their Democratic state legislators and local officials (usually - rather conservative, though, typically - less so, then their Republican counterparts). And then almost everything stopped, almost all voting went along "party lines" and difference between "national Democrats" and "Mississippi Democrats" - suddenly vanished in people's mind. The same - in rural Louisiana and Alabama, the same - in Florida panhandle, and so on. And all this - in less then 15 years (very short time by historic standards), 15 years ago (and even 10) there were tons of locally elected conservative Democrats, now even remaining (few, of course) Democratic conservatives usually have no chances. People became more dumb and vote as robots? Or what?

The answer is a lot of the people who were doing that have just simply died or gotten so old they’ve stopped voting or are unable of it. The “younger” generations were reared under the Reagan Revolution and have since become the majority voting block. Most of the “older white conservative” democrats in state legislatures have either themselves died or retired.

[libertpaulian]

Lean R.

[Spectator]

A mental exercize: would Jim Eastland-type candidate (i mean Eastland of 1970th, not 1950th, i.e. - conservative, but, essentially, not overly racist anymore) win governor election NOW (suppose - he is running unopposed in primary, and nomination is guaranteed), or Democratic label would sink even such candidate? Does final result depends on candidate and his/her views or purely on party membership?

This happened in 2019

Hood? He was much more liberal then Eastland. I meant real conservative, not a person whom liberals call "conservative". For some even Dianne Feinstein is a "conservative" (i laughed heartily when i read this....)

Hood defended the states abortion laws in court and was adamantly pro-life and pro-gun. He was as culturally conservative as they come. He did everything right from an ideological perspective and still couldn’t come within the last 5 points.

[Samof94]

I accidentally voted Safe D when I really meant Safe R.

[smoltchanov]

A mental exercize: would Jim Eastland-type candidate (i mean Eastland of 1970th, not 1950th, i.e. - conservative, but, essentially, not overly racist anymore) win governor election NOW (suppose - he is running unopposed in primary, and nomination is guaranteed), or Democratic label would sink even such candidate? Does final result depends on candidate and his/her views or purely on party membership?

This happened in 2019

Hood? He was much more liberal then Eastland. I meant real conservative, not a person whom liberals call "conservative". For some even Dianne Feinstein is a "conservative" (i laughed heartily when i read this....)

Hood defended the states abortion laws in court and was adamantly pro-life and pro-gun. He was as culturally conservative as they come. He did everything right from an ideological perspective and still couldn’t come within the last 5 points.

Eastland would do the same and much more. So - my argument still stands. And cultural conservatism is the only way to win statewide in Mississippi, but, as Hood experience shows, that's neccessary, but not sufficient, condition for victory. Probably - you must NOT be economic liberal (or populist) either....

[SnowLabrador]

A mental exercize: would Jim Eastland-type candidate (i mean Eastland of 1970th, not 1950th, i.e. - conservative, but, essentially, not overly racist anymore) win governor election NOW (suppose - he is running unopposed in primary, and nomination is guaranteed), or Democratic label would sink even such candidate? Does final result depends on candidate and his/her views or purely on party membership?

This happened in 2019

Hood? He was much more liberal then Eastland. I meant real conservative, not a person whom liberals call "conservative". For some even Dianne Feinstein is a "conservative" (i laughed heartily when i read this....)

Hood defended the states abortion laws in court and was adamantly pro-life and pro-gun. He was as culturally conservative as they come. He did everything right from an ideological perspective and still couldn’t come within the last 5 points.

Eastland would do the same and much more. So - my argument still stands. And cultural conservatism is the only way to win statewide in Mississippi, but, as Hood experience shows, that's neccessary, but not sufficient, condition for victory. Probably - you must NOT be economic liberal (or populist) either....

If you're conservative on literally every single issue, why would you even run as a Democrat?

[smoltchanov]

A mental exercize: would Jim Eastland-type candidate (i mean Eastland of 1970th, not 1950th, i.e. - conservative, but, essentially, not overly racist anymore) win governor election NOW (suppose - he is running unopposed in primary, and nomination is guaranteed), or Democratic label would sink even such candidate? Does final result depends on candidate and his/her views or purely on party membership?

This happened in 2019

Hood? He was much more liberal then Eastland. I meant real conservative, not a person whom liberals call "conservative". For some even Dianne Feinstein is a "conservative" (i laughed heartily when i read this....)

Hood defended the states abortion laws in court and was adamantly pro-life and pro-gun. He was as culturally conservative as they come. He did everything right from an ideological perspective and still couldn’t come within the last 5 points.

Eastland would do the same and much more. So - my argument still stands. And cultural conservatism is the only way to win statewide in Mississippi, but, as Hood experience shows, that's neccessary, but not sufficient, condition for victory. Probably - you must NOT be economic liberal (or populist) either....

If you're conservative on literally every single issue, why would you even run as a Democrat?

Until 10-12 years ago that question didn't stopped such candidates in the Deep South. More on state legislative and, especially, on local, levels, then on statewide and federal, but still there was considearble number of such candidates.  Essentially - for 50+ years  after Brown people in this area were quite satisfied voting Republican on Presidential and, later, Congressional levels, and for their conservative Democratic candidates - on state and local. And then rather suddenly that stopped. So, the question i wanted to be answered was "why NOW?". Look at local level politicains in my "favorite" Liberty county in Florida:

https://www.ourcampaigns.com/ContainerDetail.html?ContainerID=2892

Many of them were Democrats quite recently, some were even reelected in 2020 as Democrats. Now all of them (except one Indie) are Republicans. It's unlikely, that their political views radically changed in so short time period, so - most likely they were as conservative as Democrats as they are now as Republicans. Then, again: "what happened, why NOW?" It seems that in a strange way a catalyzer could be Obama's election in 2008, and first couple of years of his administration: in 2008 such non-liberal Democrats (then) as Bobby Bright were elected, and it wasn't big surprise then. About that time there were about dozen of really conservative (not in present sense of this word, when "conservative Democrat" really means "centrist-to-moderate liberal") Democratic state legislators in Louisiana and Mississippi, and so on. In 3-4 years - almost all switched (or retired), a sort of "second mass exodus", the first being in mid-1990th with Gingrich's "Contract with America". Now situation is at least somewhat paradoxical: Democratic party in very conservative (especially - socially) Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama is not only almost "all Black", but comparable by it's liberalism with Democratic party of Pennsylvania, Indiana and so on... It's difficult to count on good electoral results in such situation. And that may especially effect the Senate of the future, where "all states are equal", and the above mentioned Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama have (together) the same number of seats as California, New York and Illinois together...

[UWS]

Likely R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely R.

It's called split voting and you said Palin was gonna beat Peltola wrong red state Ds last poll had it MOE 3 pts like the KY Gov race is 3 pts

[UWS]

Likely R.

It's called split voting and you said Palin was gonna beat Peltola wrong red state Ds last poll had it MOE 3 pts like the KY Gov race is 3 pts

You’re the person who always said that Terry McCauliffe was going to win in Virginia you’ve been wrong. You’ve always said that Tim Ryan would have win in Ohio you’ve been wrong. You’ve always said that Representative Charlie Crist would have won in FL, you’ve been wrong. So if you think it’s wise to lecture me about vient wrong, think again.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, and you and 2016 and MTTreasure and OSR said DeSantis would be the 47 th Prez I am just saying we aren't shut out in red states either Laura Kelly won KS Gov

Tim Ryan lost because DeWine was in the ballot and won by the same amount as Pritzker Brown is up by 2 on Dolan because no DeWine is on the ballot, DeWine is TL which is good news for Ds because Vance had 40 Approval and DeWine has the same Approvals as BROWN that's why they both won in 2018

[Fuzzy Bear]

The Democrat will lose, whether it’s a gay black liberal greenie or Theodore Bilbo’s ghost. Pressley will decisively lose.

That's because Theodore Bilbo would be too economically liberal for Mississippi if he were alive today.

Bilbo was likely the most vile rascist ever in either House of Congress, but he was also an FDR Democrat and a down-the-line New Deal supporter.

[smoltchanov]

The Democrat will lose, whether it’s a gay black liberal greenie or Theodore Bilbo’s ghost. Pressley will decisively lose.

That's because Theodore Bilbo would be too economically liberal for Mississippi if he were alive today.

Bilbo was likely the most vile rascist ever in either House of Congress, but he was also an FDR Democrat and a down-the-line New Deal supporter.

That was exactly the reason i used James Eastland not Bilbo in my "mental exercise". Eastland was substantially more economically conservative while only slightly less racist. Even better example would be John Bell Williams, who was all around conservative: economically, socially and racially, but i think it would be extremely difficult to even find such Democrat today...

[Galeel]

The Democrat will lose, whether it’s a gay black liberal greenie or Theodore Bilbo’s ghost. Pressley will decisively lose.

That's because Theodore Bilbo would be too economically liberal for Mississippi if he were alive today.

Bilbo was likely the most vile rascist ever in either House of Congress, but he was also an FDR Democrat and a down-the-line New Deal supporter.

That was exactly the reason i used James Eastland not Bilbo in my "mental exercise". Eastland was substantially more economically conservative while only slightly less racist. Even better example would be John Bell Williams, who was all around conservative: economically, socially and racially, but i think it would be extremely difficult to even find such Democrat today...

What's the point of even having a Democratic party in the south if their strategy is to be racist and economically conservative. There's already a party for that.

[ListMan38]

Safe R

Brandon P simultaneously needs to win by Assad Margins in the Delta + Lafayette/Oktibbeha/Forrest and hold down Governor Peter Griffin's numbers elsewhere. If Hood couldn't, then doubt Brandon P can

[Spectator]

The Democrat will lose, whether it’s a gay black liberal greenie or Theodore Bilbo’s ghost. Pressley will decisively lose.

That's because Theodore Bilbo would be too economically liberal for Mississippi if he were alive today.

Bilbo was likely the most vile rascist ever in either House of Congress, but he was also an FDR Democrat and a down-the-line New Deal supporter.

That was exactly the reason i used James Eastland not Bilbo in my "mental exercise". Eastland was substantially more economically conservative while only slightly less racist. Even better example would be John Bell Williams, who was all around conservative: economically, socially and racially, but i think it would be extremely difficult to even find such Democrat today...

What would the point of being a Democrat even be then if they have to be as conservative as a Republican to win?

[smoltchanov]

The Democrat will lose, whether it’s a gay black liberal greenie or Theodore Bilbo’s ghost. Pressley will decisively lose.

That's because Theodore Bilbo would be too economically liberal for Mississippi if he were alive today.

Bilbo was likely the most vile rascist ever in either House of Congress, but he was also an FDR Democrat and a down-the-line New Deal supporter.

That was exactly the reason i used James Eastland not Bilbo in my "mental exercise". Eastland was substantially more economically conservative while only slightly less racist. Even better example would be John Bell Williams, who was all around conservative: economically, socially and racially, but i think it would be extremely difficult to even find such Democrat today...

What would the point of being a Democrat even be then if they have to be as conservative as a Republican to win?

There was a point in the past. And it worked then. In general - i support a "big tent" principle for countries with small number of parties (as is the case for US), and so - bitterly oppose present day polarization of both parties. "Democrat" for me is not neccessarily equals "ultraliberal", and "Republican" is not neccessarily "ultraconservative". And thus both JBE and Phil Scott are among my favorite governors now, while, say DeSantis and Kotek - absolutely no)))))