Italian Elections and Politics - 2023: Post-Berlusconism

[Flyersfan232]

So Todde won in the end! Amazing, wasn't expecting that.

I mean it should been because sardina is know for not reelecting it presidents

[Battista Minola 1616]

With a handful of precincts missing, it appears that Alessandra Todde has won by a very small margin of about 0.3%, which as already noted gives the centre-left its first regional election pickup in nine years. It could not have happened in a funnier way, given the acrimony in the selection of the right-wing candidate and the closeness of the result, not to mention that the government majority recently split on the matter of allowing regional presidents to run for a third consecutive term (Lega is in favour, mostly seen as a favour to Luca Zaia who intends to run for a fourth term, whereas FI and FdI are against; for the record the opposition also voted against except for Azione and Italia Viva)*. Salvini's party is feeling vindicated in its objections to the choice of Truzzu, an unpopular mayor who lost by almost twenty points in his city of Cagliari. Conversely Meloni's party is circulating suspects that local leghisti told the voters to cast a split ticket; after all in the vote for the regional council the lists supporting Truzzu beat those supporting Todde by a six point margin. Renato Soru, by the way, received a non-trivial 8.6%, which honestly defies my expectations even more than the topline result.

In the meantime Abruzzo gets closer and closer (10 March) and pundits are already talking about the "domino effect", although most factors at play suggest incumbent Marco Marsilio should be safer than his Sardinian counterpart.

*There is a 2004 national law stating that directly elected regional presidents are ineligible immediately after two consecutive terms, but in 2010 ordinary courts declared it unenforceable until and unless corroborated by a regional law after judicial battles involving Vasco Errani of E-R and Roberto Formigoni of Lombardy. For the same reason Zaia was able to run for a third term in 2020 already. However, the Constitutional Court has never spoken on this question yet and there are regions whose current electoral law does not specify a term limit but is also more recent than 2004, so the subject is still a mess. The Lega amendment intends to relax the national law. Interestingly the Zaia case is even more complicated than this, since a regional law was passed under him in 2012 setting a two-term limit... but it specified that current officeholders would be grandfathered in, which includes Zaia himself. And with this I think that was enough staying true to national stereotypes for today.

[Mike88]

So Todde won in the end! Amazing, wasn't expecting that.

I mean it should been because sardina is know for not reelecting it presidents

The same can be said for Abruzzo.

[Battista Minola 1616]

So Todde won in the end! Amazing, wasn't expecting that.

I mean it should been because sardina is know for not reelecting it presidents

The same can be said for Abruzzo.

Abruzzo however has been quite a bit more right-wing at most levels for a long time.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, Sardinia is historically a swing (or even slightly left-tilting) region, and the incumbent regional President was so unpopular Meloni decided to eject him in favor of the mayor of Cagliari who himself turned out to be a dud and overwhelmingly lost his own city. So this isn't exactly a shocking defeat for the right. Still, it's the first loss they've had at the regional level since 2015, and this is despite the left facing a fairly strong centrist candidate that probably cost them some votes. It's putting a serious dent into Meloni's aura of invincibility that she's had since like 2021, and proving that if the circumstances are right, a PD-M5S alliance can win.

We'll see what Abruzzo brings (Battista is probably right that Marsilio is favored but who knows), and then the EU elections will be the real test of where things are going. With the further caveat that historically EU elections functions as the high water mark of the incumbent government, and polls tend to only go down from there.

[Battista Minola 1616]

We'll see what Abruzzo brings (Battista is probably right that Marsilio is favored but who knows), and then the EU elections will be the real test of where things are going. With the further caveat that historically EU elections functions as the high water mark of the incumbent government, and polls tend to only go down from there.

There's also Basilicata in the meantime, and the government parties are grumbling about the incumbent there (Vito Bardi from Forza Italia, Lega and FdI don't seem to like him), but that one is even less representative than Sardinia or Abruzzo.

[Antonio the Sixth]

We'll see what Abruzzo brings (Battista is probably right that Marsilio is favored but who knows), and then the EU elections will be the real test of where things are going. With the further caveat that historically EU elections functions as the high water mark of the incumbent government, and polls tend to only go down from there.

There's also Basilicata in the meantime, and the government parties are grumbling about the incumbent there (Vito Bardi from Forza Italia, Lega and FdI don't seem to like him), but that one is even less representative than Sardinia or Abruzzo.

I mean, given Basilicata's historical political tradition you'd think it'd be winnable for the left, but who knows in this day and age.

[Conservatopia]

With Fitto losing recently too, it appears Fratelli underperform at the regional level.

That being said, failure is kind of Fitto's thing. He's the Italian Chris Grayling, complete with the party switching.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

The coalition supporting Soru is worth mentioning just for the sheer absurdity, apparently combining Azione/+Europa, a Sardinian independentist list and (!!!) Communist Refoundation.

When I saw that I was pretty shocked. How the hell did he get such a coalition together?

[Battista Minola 1616]

The coalition supporting Soru is worth mentioning just for the sheer absurdity, apparently combining Azione/+Europa, a Sardinian independentist list and (!!!) Communist Refoundation.

When I saw that I was pretty shocked. How the hell did he get such a coalition together?

Presumably all of them had some reason to oppose Todde or more broadly the M5S. I don't know how to even attempt to go more in detail.

[Andrea]

Forces on the centre-left opposed to the alliance with the Five Stars have coalesced behind Renato Soru, former President of Sardinia between 2004 and 2009, founder of telecom company Tiscali and at various points in the past both inside and outside the PD. The coalition supporting Soru is worth mentioning just for the sheer absurdity, apparently combining Azione/+Europa, a Sardinian independentist list and (!!!) Communist Refoundation.

And in a very Italian way, Soru's daughter was running (and got elected) for the regional council in PD list.

[Battista Minola 1616]

And now I think it's time to talk about the next regional election. Abruzzo will vote this weekend on 10 March. Incredibly there are only two candidates in total: the incumbent president Marco Marsilio (FdI, in fact the first member of Brothers of Italy ever elected regional president) for the Right, and the opposition candidate Luciano D'Amico, an independent who managed to bring together all the other major parties (PD, M5S, AVS, Az. and IV). As straight a left-right race as they come.

All the published polls have Marsilio in the lead, sometimes larger and some smaller but always in single digits. To be clear, there have been a decent few of them, which is certainly a difference from Sardinia. Will this mean they won't be wrong this time around? Stay tuned and remember that after we find out, we'll be soon heading to Basilicata.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If Marsilio loses that is a serious alarm sign for Meloni. Most likely he makes it through, but even a good performance by D'Amico would be encouraging news for the opposition (so long as Conte actually commits to the bit and stops wanting to dictate everything).

[Antonio the Sixth]

So Marsilio won easily in the end. Oh well. On to Basilicata and the Europeans I guess.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Marco Marsilio won with 53.5% (therefore, since there were only two candidates, a margin of exactly 7 points). FdI was the most voted party list but it did not do spectacularly, while Forza Italia had a huge rebound and got over 13%. On the other side the trends of local elections were confirmed once again as the PD received almost three times the votes of the M5S - as well as five times the votes of Azione. Overall turnout was very slightly lower than 2019, at 52% against 53%.

[Flyersfan232]

If Marsilio loses that is a serious alarm sign for Meloni. Most likely he makes it through, but even a good performance by D'Amico would be encouraging news for the opposition (so long as Conte actually commits to the bit and stops wanting to dictate everything).

so what was the results a sign of?

[Antonio the Sixth]

If Marsilio loses that is a serious alarm sign for Meloni. Most likely he makes it through, but even a good performance by D'Amico would be encouraging news for the opposition (so long as Conte actually commits to the bit and stops wanting to dictate everything).

so what was the results a sign of?

Nothing in particular, frankly. Given incumbency and the current state of national polling, you would expect Marsilio to win fairly easily. I guess the main thing it shows is that a grand coalition opposition is less than the sum of its parts (though still better than the alternative of going it alone), but that's not much of a surprise.

[Battista Minola 1616]

If Marsilio loses that is a serious alarm sign for Meloni. Most likely he makes it through, but even a good performance by D'Amico would be encouraging news for the opposition (so long as Conte actually commits to the bit and stops wanting to dictate everything).

so what was the results a sign of?

Nothing in particular, frankly. Given incumbency and the current state of national polling, you would expect Marsilio to win fairly easily. I guess the main thing it shows is that a grand coalition opposition is less than the sum of its parts (though still better than the alternative of going it alone), but that's not much of a surprise.

I hardly even think it shows that, since D'Amico's result was identical to if not slightly better than the combined total of the parties supporting him at the last parliamentary election. It is worse than the combined total at the last regional election, but considering where the M5S was at in early 2019 that does not mean much.

[mappix]

Regional elections in Sardinia: Centre-Left win (gain)
Centre-Right: it's our fault, we managed things badly, we chose the wrong candidate, we lost, they won.

Regional elections in Abruzzo: Centre-Right win (hold)
Centre-Left: low turnout is to blame, the voters are dumb and didn't understand us, we rejoice because we scared the right-wing field.

[KaiserDave]

"Center"-Right and Center-"Left"

[Battista Minola 1616]

In actual meaningful content, BiDiMedia has put up the interactive municipality map for the Abruzzo election: https://sondaggibidimedia.com/regionali-abruzzo-2024-la-mappa-interattiva-bidimedia/

Abruzzo, a small region halfway between Centre and South that is marginal in most respects, is not the place to look for durable geographic patterns. That said, L'Aquila province voted significantly to the right of the coastal ones and had the best FdI score (also true of the last parliamentary election), something which can be related to a long although somewhat fickle far-right tradition in the area. Teramo province alone voting for D'Amico instead is certainly a home effect* more than some unearthing of old loyalties from when it used to be the best part of the region for the PCI. A smidgen of urban-rural polarization can also be seen, with D'Amico winning the cities of Teramo and Pescara and losing Chieti and L'Aquila by small margins, although I am not sure that represents anything "real".

*D'Amico is a professor at the University of Teramo and also its former rector. However he was actually born in a small mountain village in the province of Chieti, which incidentally voted for him in a huge landslide. The not as small and not as mountainous village Marsilio's parents came from, in the province of Pescara, voted for Marsilio in a less overwhelming landslide.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Since I mentioned that both candidates have family backgrounds from small villages in the middle of the Appennines, I might as well talk about this. Rural inland Abruzzo (and Molise, part of the same region until 1963 anyway) faced really severe population loss after WW2, more severe than anywhere else in the country including parts of the South much more commonly associated with the mass internal migrations of the period. After all if Basilicata has its Christ Stopped at Eboli, Abruzzo has its Fontamara. Many, many municipalities where one third or so left just in the 1950s plus others where that happened in the 1960s. Some moved to the coastal part of the region, some moved to Rome, some moved to the North, some to the rest of Europe... and some moved to Downsview, Ontario, two of whose MLAs in the 1980s were apparently born in the same Abruzzo village which numbered 975 people at the 1951 Census and 378 (!!!) people at the 1971 Census.

[PSOL]

Why is an American running the main opposition party?

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

you probably won't know offhand considering its size but since we're talking about family backgrounds from small towns, any info regarding Santa Ninfa, Sicily? That's where my mom's side of the family is from.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Why is an American running the main opposition party?

You are more than a year late to be asking this question. Anyway, Schlein's father is American and her mother Italian. She grew up in Ticino and has lived in Italy since she graduated from high school.