Here's my election prediction....

[opebo]

that was in 2001... since clinton we have lost 3 million jobs... misled the nation saying iraq must be taken care of...no WMD found in iraq and no evidence of them...he thinks he can hold elections in june when the country is not secure, look in afghan they just got a constitution 3 years later.....plus national polls indicate that kerry AND edwards would beat george w bush in the general election... the only thing he derseves is a one way ticket back to crawford texas, oh wait hes there almost every weekend anyway....2 words reaganfan - WHERES OSAMA?

Osama's going to be captured or confirmed dead at an opportune moment during the campaign.  

[Gustaf]

that was in 2001... since clinton we have lost 3 million jobs... misled the nation saying iraq must be taken care of...no WMD found in iraq and no evidence of them...he thinks he can hold elections in june when the country is not secure, look in afghan they just got a constitution 3 years later.....plus national polls indicate that kerry AND edwards would beat george w bush in the general election... the only thing he derseves is a one way ticket back to crawford texas, oh wait hes there almost every weekend anyway....2 words reaganfan - WHERES OSAMA?

Osama's going to be captured or confirmed dead at an opportune moment during the campaign.  

You mean Bush would use it to get reelected?

[Gustaf]

I agree with Trondheim on the changes. But I also think that CA should go Rep in their ultimate scenario, judging from polls, the recall and the Gore margin.

[© tweed]

Osama's going to be captured or confirmed dead at an opportune moment during the campaign.  

You mean Bush would use it to get reelected?

If Bush is down in the polls he would anounce the capture of Osama, even if it weren't true.

[zachman]

The recall indicated that California was angry at an incumbent, Scwarzenneger's support was due  to Californian's anger at the establishment and partisan politics. Bush represents that more than Kerry and certainly more than Edwards. If Bush makes any gains in California don't expect them to be significant.

[Gustaf]

Osama's going to be captured or confirmed dead at an opportune moment during the campaign.  

You mean Bush would use it to get reelected?

If Bush is down in the polls he would anounce the capture of Osama, even if it weren't true.

It would come out and look REALLY bad. No one is that stupid. Not even a politician.

[Gustaf]

Osama's going to be captured or confirmed dead at an opportune moment during the campaign.  

You mean Bush would use it to get reelected?

If Bush is down in the polls he would anounce the capture of Osama, even if it weren't true.

I don't think that he's above it in the moral sense, but it would be SO bad if it got out. I think it would be a stupid move, and no one is that stupid. Not even a politician.

[© tweed]

I don't think that he's above it in the moral sense, but it would be SO bad if it got out. I think it would be a stupid move, and no one is that stupid. Not even a politician.

So?  He would still have four years to make people forget about it.

[Gustaf]

I don't think that he's above it in the moral sense, but it would be SO bad if it got out. I think it would be a stupid move, and no one is that stupid. Not even a politician.

So?  He would still have four years to make people forget about it.

I think it would be too big for that. Then again, maybe not. I've seen politicians get away with ridiculous things in Sweden, so who knows...

[7,052,770]

harry there is no way kerry loses NJ

Yes there is, Gore only won it by 16% I recall.

Harry----Kerry also could win NC is he picked Edwards.  It isn't likely, but it is necessary when you are predicting the best-case scenario for Kerry.

I saw several polls showing a comfortable Bush win in NC is Kerry is the presidential nominee.  If he's the VP, I seriously doubt he'd carry the state.  He would, however, help out in the South, putting AR, TN, and maybe LA into play.

[7,052,770]

I don't think that he's above it in the moral sense, but it would be SO bad if it got out. I think it would be a stupid move, and no one is that stupid. Not even a politician.

So?  He would still have four years to make people forget about it.

If it came out before the election, though. . . . Kerry may be even more sucessful than the best case map I made.

[© tweed]

I don't think that he's above it in the moral sense, but it would be SO bad if it got out. I think it would be a stupid move, and no one is that stupid. Not even a politician.

So?  He would still have four years to make people forget about it.

If it came out before the election, though. . . . Kerry may be even more sucessful than the best case map I made.

What if Bush announced the capture n Nov. 1, 2004?  But then it might look fixed...

[opebo]

Osama's going to be captured or confirmed dead at an opportune moment during the campaign.  

You mean Bush would use it to get reelected?

If Bush is down in the polls he would anounce the capture of Osama, even if it weren't true.

I actually meant to imply that they know approximately where he is and will make sure to get the timing right, but faking it would be worthwhile if we were in desperate straights.  After the electino it could be revealed that the body was someone else - just a mistake.  

[Beet]

More likely they will ascertain where he (hell they might already think they know, why else would they be so blustery?) is but not go after him until an opportune moment in the campaign.

[© tweed]

I actually meant to imply that they know approximately where he is and will make sure to get the timing right, but faking it would be worthwhile if we were in desperate straights.  After the electino it could be revealed that the body was someone else - just a mistake.  

It would be tough to pull off.

[Nym90]

Let me get this straight, Opebo...you are saying that Bush SHOULD fake Bin Laden's capture or death just to win the election???

[opebo]

Let me get this straight, Opebo...you are saying that Bush SHOULD fake Bin Laden's capture or death just to win the election???

JUST to win the election?  I guess I consider the election a bit more important than you do.

[Nym90]

That's correct, I don't think that the end justifies the means.

Heck, why not just assassinate Kerry a few days before the election if he is ahead in the polls?

[Gustaf]

Let me get this straight, Opebo...you are saying that Bush SHOULD fake Bin Laden's capture or death just to win the election???

JUST to win the election?  I guess I consider the election a bit more important than you do.

I think you're one of the few people who do. I doubt a lot of people would be ready to take part in such a conspiracy. And a presidential election isn't that important. But it depends on whether one believes in moral behaviour or not, I guess.

[opebo]

Let me get this straight, Opebo...you are saying that Bush SHOULD fake Bin Laden's capture or death just to win the election???

JUST to win the election?  I guess I consider the election a bit more important than you do.

I think you're one of the few people who do. I doubt a lot of people would be ready to take part in such a conspiracy. And a presidential election isn't that important. But it depends on whether one believes in moral behaviour or not, I guess.

Actually I very much doubt that such schemes would work.   Additionally there's the chance of getting caught.  But the election is very important - with four more years and a bigger Senate majority Bush could remake the country in some ways - at least the Supreme Court.  If Kerry wins, well, it'll be more corrupt muddling like the Clinton years, but the really sad thing will be what will happen to the Court.

[Nym90]

Well, you are correct, it wouldn't work, an investigation would be launched and Bush would be impeached or resign.

But then you'd get Cheney as President, so what the heck.

[© tweed]

Well, you are correct, it wouldn't work, an investigation would be launched and Bush would be impeached or resign.

But then you'd get Cheney as President, so what the heck.

But that would lead to an anti-GOP backlash in the future, which would essentially swing congress to the Dems in 2006 and the white house to the Dems in 2008.

I could see Bush faking the capture of bin Laden in order to win the election.  I could see 85% of politicans doing something like that in similar situations.  Only the truly honest (Jimmy Carter wouldn't do it, for example) would refrain.

[12th Doctor]

Well, you are correct, it wouldn't work, an investigation would be launched and Bush would be impeached or resign.

But then you'd get Cheney as President, so what the heck.

But that would lead to an anti-GOP backlash in the future, which would essentially swing congress to the Dems in 2006 and the white house to the Dems in 2008.

I could see Bush faking the capture of bin Laden in order to win the election.  I could see 85% of politicans doing something like that in similar situations.  Only the truly honest (Jimmy Carter wouldn't do it, for example) would refrain.

I don't think so.  The personal and political ramifications of getting caught in something like that are too great for all but the MOST currupt people.  I don't even think that Nixon would do something like that.

[© tweed]

I don't think so.  The personal and political ramifications of getting caught in something like that are too great for all but the MOST currupt people.  I don't even think that Nixon would do something like that.

Look at what's at stake: THE PRESIDENCY OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.  The most powerful position in the world, arguably.  Power brings out the worst in people.

I hate to say it, but I do believe I would fake the capture of bin Laden to save my re-election campaign.

[Gustaf]

I don't think so.  The personal and political ramifications of getting caught in something like that are too great for all but the MOST currupt people.  I don't even think that Nixon would do something like that.

Look at what's at stake: THE PRESIDENCY OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.  The most powerful position in the world, arguably.  Power brings out the worst in people.

I hate to say it, but I do believe I would fake the capture of bin Laden to save my re-election campaign.

I don't know about you, but I am saying 2 different things here:

1. Most politicians would be ready to do it, morally.

2. Most politicians would, however, NOT be willing to take the risk. Nixon wad paranoia and a bit of insanity, and that's what led to Watergate.