Here's my election prediction....

[Reaganfan]

I predict (THIS MAY CHANGE):

John Kerry narrowly beats John Edwards for the nomination. Kerry then has to decide on a running mate. Many thoughts are hinted such as Bob Graham, Joseph Biden, and John Edwards himself. For awhile it looks like it will be a Kerry-Biden ticket, but soon Edwards is chosen by Kerry.

Bush has a very tough choice to make. Drop Vice President Cheney, or keep him. Cheney is dropped, due to his health. President Bush has a very tough decision. Elizabeth Dole, Rudy Giuliani, Bill Frist, Tom Ridge, and many more could be asked. Bush chooses Giuliani as his running mate.

On Election Night, Bush-Giuliani beats Kerry-Edwards by 405 to 133 votes.

Well, what do you think? Post your predicts like I did, and I will soon put my 2008 predictions.

[Dave from Michigan]

possible but i don't think cheny will be dropped and that will make the election a lot closer

[opebo]

I predict (THIS MAY CHANGE):

John Kerry narrowly beats John Edwards for the nomination. Kerry then has to decide on a running mate. Many thoughts are hinted such as Bob Graham, Joseph Biden, and John Edwards himself. For awhile it looks like it will be a Kerry-Biden ticket, but soon Edwards is chosen by Kerry.

Bush has a very tough choice to make. Drop Vice President Cheney, or keep him. Cheney is dropped, due to his health. President Bush has a very tough decision. Elizabeth Dole, Rudy Giuliani, Bill Frist, Tom Ridge, and many more could be asked. Bush chooses Giuliani as his running mate.

On Election Night, Bush-Giuliani beats Kerry-Edwards by 405 to 133 votes.

Well, what do you think? Post your predicts like I did, and I will soon put my 2008 predictions.

Which states does Bush-Giuliani win that Bush-Cheney could not?

[Nym90]

I agree, I don't think that Giuliani helps Bush too much in the Northeast, against Kerry Bush would still lose the entire Northeast with the possible exception of New Hampshire even with Giuliani on the ticket. Giuliani helps with swing voters, but hurts with the base, and so overall I don't see him helping the ticket a lot. He might help some in the Midwest and in Pennsylvania, but even there he might turn off enough base voters to negate the benefit.

[HoopsCubs]

I predict (THIS MAY CHANGE):

John Kerry narrowly beats John Edwards for the nomination. Kerry then has to decide on a running mate. Many thoughts are hinted such as Bob Graham, Joseph Biden, and John Edwards himself. For awhile it looks like it will be a Kerry-Biden ticket, but soon Edwards is chosen by Kerry.

Bush has a very tough choice to make. Drop Vice President Cheney, or keep him. Cheney is dropped, due to his health. President Bush has a very tough decision. Elizabeth Dole, Rudy Giuliani, Bill Frist, Tom Ridge, and many more could be asked. Bush chooses Giuliani as his running mate.

On Election Night, Bush-Giuliani beats Kerry-Edwards by 405 to 133 votes.

Well, what do you think? Post your predicts like I did, and I will soon put my 2008 predictions.

Emotionally, I predict Kerry beats Bush 270-268.  

Analytically, in response to your prediction of a 405-133 Bush win, I think there is a very high probability that Bush will win the election.  Except, I don't see any likely  scenario where the Democrats get less than 221.   You obviously think California will go Republican - I just don't see that.   Democrats could lose Oregon, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin.   That would lower their 260 ev total to 221.  I don't see them losing any other state.   I don't think we' ll see Bush get more than 317 ev.

HoopsCubs

[Reaganfan]

Actually, my prediction map shows Bush losing California and New York to Kerry.

[opebo]

I predict (THIS MAY CHANGE):

John Kerry narrowly beats John Edwards for the nomination. Kerry then has to decide on a running mate. Many thoughts are hinted such as Bob Graham, Joseph Biden, and John Edwards himself. For awhile it looks like it will be a Kerry-Biden ticket, but soon Edwards is chosen by Kerry.

Bush has a very tough choice to make. Drop Vice President Cheney, or keep him. Cheney is dropped, due to his health. President Bush has a very tough decision. Elizabeth Dole, Rudy Giuliani, Bill Frist, Tom Ridge, and many more could be asked. Bush chooses Giuliani as his running mate.

On Election Night, Bush-Giuliani beats Kerry-Edwards by 405 to 133 votes.

Well, what do you think? Post your predicts like I did, and I will soon put my 2008 predictions.

Emotionally, I predict Kerry beats Bush 270-268.  

Analytically, in response to your prediction of a 405-133 Bush win, I think there is a very high probability that Bush will win the election.  Except, I don't see any likely  scenario where the Democrats get less than 221.   You obviously think California will go Republican - I just don't see that.   Democrats could lose Oregon, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin.   That would lower their 260 ev total to 221.  I don't see them losing any other state.   I don't think we' ll see Bush get more than 317 ev.

HoopsCubs

HoopsCubs I think you're right on the money, though I think there is also a very slight chance in Pennsylvania and maybe Maine.  Thats about it though.  

[HoopsCubs]

Actually, my prediction map shows Bush losing California and New York to Kerry.

Okay, then, which states do the Democrats lose to take their total from 260 to 133 if they don't lose California or New York?

They would have to lose close to 14 of the remaining 18 states that Gore won in 2000 in order to hit your 133.    

[Michael Z]

I predict (THIS MAY CHANGE):

John Kerry narrowly beats John Edwards for the nomination. Kerry then has to decide on a running mate. Many thoughts are hinted such as Bob Graham, Joseph Biden, and John Edwards himself. For awhile it looks like it will be a Kerry-Biden ticket, but soon Edwards is chosen by Kerry.

Bush has a very tough choice to make. Drop Vice President Cheney, or keep him. Cheney is dropped, due to his health. President Bush has a very tough decision. Elizabeth Dole, Rudy Giuliani, Bill Frist, Tom Ridge, and many more could be asked. Bush chooses Giuliani as his running mate.

On Election Night, Bush-Giuliani beats Kerry-Edwards by 405 to 133 votes.

Well, what do you think? Post your predicts like I did, and I will soon put my 2008 predictions.

Quite an interesting prediction. I'm not quite sure about the margin of victory, but it's very realistic nevertheless.

[7,052,770]

I predict a Kerry/Edwards win over Bush/Guliani 275-267.


Dems hang on to OR, IA, and NM by razor-thin margins.
GOP hangs on to FL, TN, NV, and MO by similar margins.
The GOP picks up WI and MN, but Dem pickups in WV, NH, and OH turn the election to Kerry by a razor thin national margin.
Edwards does brings only AR, but makes the GOP have to divert resources to the South to counter him, keeping NM and OR in the Dem column.

[Dave from Michigan]

I don't think Arkansas will go democrat.

[12th Doctor]

I predict a Kerry/Edwards win over Bush/Guliani 275-267.


Dems hang on to OR, IA, and NM by razor-thin margins.
GOP hangs on to FL, TN, NV, and MO by similar margins.
The GOP picks up WI and MN, but Dem pickups in WV, NH, and OH turn the election to Kerry by a razor thin national margin.
Edwards does brings only AR, but makes the GOP have to divert resources to the South to counter him, keeping NM and OR in the Dem column.

You would.  

[Reaganfan]

In my map only California, DC, Maryland, New York, Vermont, Mass, Maine, Rhode Island, Conn.,  and Hawai go to the Democrats. Gore won New Mexico and other states that I believe Bush will win in 2004.

[7,052,770]

You would.  

Of course; I'd say nothing rather than put a map with a repbulican victory

But i think my map is plausible anyway,

[HoopsCubs]

In my map only California, DC, Maryland, New York, Vermont, Mass, Maine, Rhode Island, Conn.,  and Hawai go to the Democrats. Gore won New Mexico and other states that I believe Bush will win in 2004.

Wow.  You've got the Dems losing Washington, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Delaware too?  It's a stretch to say the least.

HoopsCubs

[Reaganfan]

No. Bush is more popular than some may think.

[12th Doctor]

Bush won't lose Arkansas and West Virginia.

[7,052,770]

No. Bush is more popular than some may think.

He's also less popular than some may think.

[Reaganfan]

I still, see Bush getting another four years.

[Gustaf]

I still, see Bush getting another four years.

Yes probably, but a blowout is unlikely. I still think that the most likely result is a Bush win by something like 320-218, or something similar.

[Reaganfan]

I hope Democrats don't want recounts!

[Gustaf]

I hope Democrats don't want recounts!

Lol...

When you lose, you'll be demanding recounts too!

[7,052,770]

I hope Democrats don't want recounts!

If you're so convinced of your victory, why are you afraid of recounts?

[Reaganfan]

Recounts are useless and annoying. If it is 405 to 133 I doubt any need for recounts.

[Nym90]

Yes, I guarantee if it is 405 to 133 in the Electoral vote, then there will be no recounts.

But why is it pointless and annoying to attempt to try to find the true winner of a very close election? I suppose this whole concept of democracy is pointless and annoying to you too, and you'd rather just have the Republican nominee in every race become the automatic winner.