Here's my election prediction....

[mossy]

On the other hand, Karl Rove is the genius who had Bush barnstorming out of reach California the week before the 2000 election while Gore was solidifying his chances in Florida.

I'm just shaking my head.

I missed this post........he had Bush in Calif the week prior, leaving FL to Gore---.you're kidding!!!!   (Maybe Rove isn't the Boy Wonder that I gave him cfredit for............

[YRABNNRM]

Giuliani wouldn't win NY for bush, he wouldn't even get it with 10%.

I hate to say it, but he's right.

[© tweed]

Giuliani wouldn't win NY for bush, he wouldn't even get it with 10%.

I hate to say it, but he's right.

I meant within, I hope you know.

If Giuliani ran at the top of the ticket someday, I don't think he would win New York.  But he would make it close, forcing the Dem to spend resources there.

[12th Doctor]

Giuliani wouldn't win NY for bush, he wouldn't even get it with 10%.

I hate to say it, but he's right.

He could put New Jersey and Connecticut into play, though.

[PD]

There's a really good chance that CA will vote for Bush. His approval ratings, as well as the entire Republican Party's, have gone up 51% here.

[© tweed]

He could put New Jersey and Connecticut into play, though.

No, he couldn't.  Giuliani is from NY, not CT or NJ.

[Dave from Michigan]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

 I don't think he will win Califorina
 
 
 
 

[NHPolitico]

But I'd say its a 99.5% chance Cheney is still Bush's running mate come election time.

I just have such a weird sixth sense on that. I'd lower those odds a lot, as ridiculous as it might strike some folks. Bush knows how to hold things close to the vest. He has shown he can keep really big secrets-- Homeland Security Dept, Thanksgiving visit, first Iraq air strikes, etc.

[opebo]

But I'd say its a 99.5% chance Cheney is still Bush's running mate come election time.

I just have such a weird sixth sense on that. I'd lower those odds a lot, as ridiculous as it might strike some folks. Bush knows how to hold things close to the vest. He has shown he can keep really big secrets-- Homeland Security Dept, Thanksgiving visit, first Iraq air strikes, etc.

There's so much riding on this election, and it looks so close, that it would definitely be worth changing VP's.  However I doubt it would make much difference.  Incumbents run on their record, not on new faces.

[minionofmidas]

But I'd say its a 99.5% chance Cheney is still Bush's running mate come election time.

I just have such a weird sixth sense on that. I'd lower those odds a lot, as ridiculous as it might strike some folks. Bush knows how to hold things close to the vest. He has shown he can keep really big secrets-- Homeland Security Dept, Thanksgiving visit, first Iraq air strikes, etc.

There's so much riding on this election, and it looks so close, that it would definitely be worth changing VP's.  However I doubt it would make much difference.  Incumbents run on their record, not on new faces.

It would always depend on how close it's looking at that point, and if the Bush campaign decides on"reaching out" or on keeping the base together. They would have an A-1 excuse to the conservatives for dumping Cheney - his heart - and could appoint someone with a more moderate reputation, someone from outside the administration's inner circle, as veep. Giuliani would be a possible choice, so would be some moderate Senator or Governor (provided he's well known enough).
As I said, it depends on two questions:
-would it help
- do they feel they need that help

[© tweed]

SO are quite a lot of people in NJ and CT, and quite a lot of people in NH...

If anything, Giuliani would turn people off in NJ because he's from NY.

[NHPolitico]

But I'd say its a 99.5% chance Cheney is still Bush's running mate come election time.

I just have such a weird sixth sense on that. I'd lower those odds a lot, as ridiculous as it might strike some folks. Bush knows how to hold things close to the vest. He has shown he can keep really big secrets-- Homeland Security Dept, Thanksgiving visit, first Iraq air strikes, etc.

There's so much riding on this election, and it looks so close, that it would definitely be worth changing VP's.  However I doubt it would make much difference.  Incumbents run on their record, not on new faces.

It would always depend on how close it's looking at that point, and if the Bush campaign decides on"reaching out" or on keeping the base together. They would have an A-1 excuse to the conservatives for dumping Cheney - his heart - and could appoint someone with a more moderate reputation, someone from outside the administration's inner circle, as veep. Giuliani would be a possible choice, so would be some moderate Senator or Governor (provided he's well known enough).
As I said, it depends on two questions:
-would it help
- do they feel they need that help

I'd like to think that conservatives view Bush as conservative enough that he doesn't need a conservative VP.  That could give him latitude to reach out to moderates with Rudy.

[elcorazon]

UPDATED Kerry v. Bush:


Bush 275 to Kerry 263

switch Ohio to Bush and NH, NM,Iowa & Wisconsin to Kerry & you have a 269-269 tie, which I think would result in a Bush victory...again. yikes

[Mort from NewYawk]

Giuliani would bring less moderates to a GOP ticket than the number of conservatives he would anger enough to keep home on Election Day.

He won his popularity by channeling America's emotion following 9/11. He was always close to the police and fire departments, and exhibited honest, non-political sentiment during those days of shock and mourning.

However, in an election battle, he's prone to attack that after all, he's only a mayor with a reputation as a crime-fighter. Even that reputation should be greatly tempered by consideration of the factors beyond his control - the booming NYC economy at the time, and the decline in the crack trade.

The truth is he actually has a very abrasive personality, and would not be an asset on the campaign trail.

[Gustaf]

UPDATED Kerry v. Bush:


Bush 275 to Kerry 263

switch Ohio to Bush and NH, NM,Iowa & Wisconsin to Kerry & you have a 269-269 tie, which I think would result in a Bush victory...again. yikes

Of course it would. The Dems have little hope of winning a House vote in a long time, since the state delegations vote, not the House as a whole.

[zachman]

Regardless of whether Giulliani made Veep it would end his hero image. I'm not sure how long ge can keep that. Bush's shouldn't invest any energy in the northeast- his best strategy is to keep the southwest and gain in the midwest. Maybe Frist or Hagel (if he'd really support Bush)

[7,052,770]

Here’s the absolute best case scenario for both parties:


Kerry 368, Bush 170


Bush 394, Kerry 144

[MAS117]

harry there is no way kerry loses NJ

[Reaganfan]

Look at past great presidents. Nixon won New Jersey in 1972, and California. So did Reagan.

[MAS117]

george w isnt a good presdient though

[Reaganfan]

He had an approval rating in 2001 of 88%. We caught Saddam. We liberated Iraq. The economy is up. His tax cuts worked. President Bush is a great leader.

[MAS117]

that was in 2001... since clinton we have lost 3 million jobs... misled the nation saying iraq must be taken care of...no WMD found in iraq and no evidence of them...he thinks he can hold elections in june when the country is not secure, look in afghan they just got a constitution 3 years later.....plus national polls indicate that kerry AND edwards would beat george w bush in the general election... the only thing he derseves is a one way ticket back to crawford texas, oh wait hes there almost every weekend anyway....2 words reaganfan - WHERES OSAMA?

[minionofmidas]

2 words reaganfan - WHERES OSAMA?

That's three words.

[minionofmidas]

Here’s the absolute best case scenario for both parties:


Kerry 368, Bush 170


Bush 394, Kerry 144

Add Virginia and Colorado in the -totally theoretical- best Dem map.
Add Wahington and possibly even Illinois but subtract New Jersey and Maryland in the equally illusory Rep one.

[© tweed]

harry there is no way kerry loses NJ

Yes there is, Gore only won it by 16% I recall.

Harry----Kerry also could win NC is he picked Edwards.  It isn't likely, but it is necessary when you are predicting the best-case scenario for Kerry.