Here's my election prediction....

[Nation]

If the election is close with the Democrats winning, I'd still like to see a recount. Nothing wrong with making sure who reportedly won is actually the winner.

[© tweed]

If the election is close with the Democrats winning, I'd still like to see a recount. Nothing wrong with making sure who reportedly won is actually the winner.

Agreed.  We might as well get it right.

[John]

Well i think Bush will have a another four years in office so he can finsihe the work that he beginng

[John]

Bush will Chose whome he wants in office
but it will be bush winning over Kerry
331 Votes to 138 Votes for Kerry
Bush will pick up Iowa, Minnestoa, Wiscons & Pennesvilvan from Kerry

[Nym90]

Who gets the other 69 Electoral Votes?

[Nation]

I was wondering who was going to get Pennesvilvan, too.

[NHPolitico]

I predict (THIS MAY CHANGE):

John Kerry narrowly beats John Edwards for the nomination. Kerry then has to decide on a running mate. Many thoughts are hinted such as Bob Graham, Joseph Biden, and John Edwards himself. For awhile it looks like it will be a Kerry-Biden ticket, but soon Edwards is chosen by Kerry.

Bush has a very tough choice to make. Drop Vice President Cheney, or keep him. Cheney is dropped, due to his health. President Bush has a very tough decision. Elizabeth Dole, Rudy Giuliani, Bill Frist, Tom Ridge, and many more could be asked. Bush chooses Giuliani as his running mate.

On Election Night, Bush-Giuliani beats Kerry-Edwards by 405 to 133 votes.

Well, what do you think? Post your predicts like I did, and I will soon put my 2008 predictions.

Yep. Cheney will announce that he'll serve out the term, but Rudy will be announced as the VP pick right before the Dem convention to step on their convention.

[agcatter]

What I want to know is when is Bush going to spend all that campaign $$ he's been collecting.  He's a punching bag.  Would be nice if the guy hit back every now and then.  Maybe if he gets down 15pts he may start fighting back.  At the rate he's going, that should be soon.

On the other hand, Karl Rove is the genius who had Bush barnstorming out of reach California the week before the 2000 election while Gore was solidifying his chances in Florida.

I'm just shaking my head.

[12th Doctor]

What I want to know is when is Bush going to spend all that campaign $$ he's been collecting.  He's a punching bag.  Would be nice if the guy hit back every now and then.  Maybe if he gets down 15pts he may start fighting back.  At the rate he's going, that should be soon.

On the other hand, Karl Rove is the genius who had Bush barnstorming out of reach California the week before the 2000 election while Gore was solidifying his chances in Florida.

I'm just shaking my head.

Believe me, Bush is just standing back until it is decided who the Dem nominee will be.  When that is done, he will release his $150 million+ turent down on the Dem nominee.

[agcatter]

By then, the Dems may already have him defined the way they want with the American voters.

I have always maintained the Rove almost blew the election down the stretch in 2000.  I have little confidence in his judgement.

[mossy]

Rove has had a very long track record of doing just what he does best.  Horrible man, of course,--but he did it for Bush, Sr, and Jr for the Gov.----would run over his grandmother for a political advantage.  There's still blowback for what he did to McCain.

My guess is Bush/Cheney will replace Rummy......according to O'Neill, Cheney has been and still is functioning President.  He calls ALL the shots, so I doubt he'd resign.  But Bush has got to do some hacking, to try and stem the ebbing tide.

[12th Doctor]

My guess is Bush/Cheney will replace Rummy......according to O'Neill, Cheney has been and still is functioning President.  He calls ALL the shots, so I doubt he'd resign.  But Bush has got to do some hacking, to try and stem the ebbing tide.

Come on.  Anyone who still believes that is ignoring reality.

[12th Doctor]

My guess is Bush/Cheney will replace Rummy......according to O'Neill, Cheney has been and still is functioning President.  He calls ALL the shots, so I doubt he'd resign.  But Bush has got to do some hacking, to try and stem the ebbing tide.

Come on.  Anyone who still believes that is ignoring reality.

First-off, this is nothing new.  Diaffected cabinate members have been trashing their ex-administrations since this whole process began.  What's new about O'Niel?

[mossy]

What's new about O'Neill?  Both O'Neill and the WSJ pulitzer prize winner author agree on Cheney being "Functionary President"  

O'Neil is the first senior cabinet member to defect......He's served under 3 Presidents, plus the CEO of AlCOA---very heavy hitter, with impeccable credentials.  He refused to resign, and could not go along with the second big taxcut to the Rich, saying that this could destroy the economy and the dollar.  Greenspan couched his words, but feels the same.  The danger is real, according to O'Neill, Greenspan and Krugman--the latter refused to appear with the GOP spokesman on NPR.   It's very close to blood being drawn.

[mossy]

Paul O'Neill, Truth-Teller
by WILLIAM GREIDER

[from the February 9, 2004 issue]

For those with a taste for learning the inner truth about White House politics, reading Paul O'Neill's story is like eating a bowl of peanuts--difficult to stop. For those who have always seen a fraudulent character in George W. Bush, it is like cashews. The news coverage has mined The Price of Loyalty by Ron Suskind for many extraordinary "gotcha" nuggets, but the cruelest revelation is in the texture of this narrative--a devastating portrait of our imperial President. Up close, he is smaller than life, an oddly uninteresting person. Yet
he possesses all of the presidency's dreadful powers and cheerfully authorizes their use. The publicity apparatus successfully created a guy who is Mr. Macho
Fighter Pilot. Behind the closed door, he submits complacently to the close supervision of others--Cheney, Rice, Rove et al.

The book is deeply scary on that level. That's why the Bush henchmen have piled on O'Neill with such fierce denials and personal attacks. Even GWB felt the need
to speak out against its message. They understand how damaging this book is to the concocted persona they sold the American people--and therefore how it
threatens their agenda. O'Neill is one of them (or was until they booted him as Treasury Secretary). He's a meticulous man, strong-willed and experienced in
government and corporate life, a conservative Republican with a talent for
systems analysis. Yet he comes across as the innocent everyman, honest but slightly goofy in his naïveté, repeatedly shocked by the cynicism and sloppiness, angered by the gross deceptions and flaky decisions. O'Neill is believable because his own story portrays him as goat, not hero.

(More)
http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20040209&s=greider

[StevenNick]

My 2004 prediction map has Kerry losing to Bush by a 380-158 ev margin.  I think Bush will win every state he won in 2000 plus Oregon, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Maine.  I think that popular vote will be something like 54-46.  A lot like George H.W. Bush's victory of Dukakis.

My gut tells me that California is going to go for Bush in November, but my head tells me otherwise.  I went ahead and gave it the dems in my prediction, but I wouldn't be a bit surprised if Bush won there in the end.

[Nym90]

No way Bush will win Illinois or California, and Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Maine are also highly questionable.

[Platypus]

Illinois is impossible.

California is all but impossible.

Michigan is highly unlikely.

Pennsylvania is quite unlikely.

Maine is unlikely.

The election is probable.

[opebo]

What I want to know is when is Bush going to spend all that campaign $$ he's been collecting.  He's a punching bag.  Would be nice if the guy hit back every now and then.  Maybe if he gets down 15pts he may start fighting back.  At the rate he's going, that should be soon.

On the other hand, Karl Rove is the genius who had Bush barnstorming out of reach California the week before the 2000 election while Gore was solidifying his chances in Florida.

I'm just shaking my head.

Yeah, agcat, Rove is a typical boy genius - thinks he's able to outdo common sense with clever, innovative analysis.  Such hubris.  I hope some one reigns him in.

[opebo]

What's new about O'Neill?  Both O'Neill and the WSJ pulitzer prize winner author agree on Cheney being "Functionary President"  

O'Neil is the first senior cabinet member to defect......He's served under 3 Presidents, plus the CEO of AlCOA---very heavy hitter, with impeccable credentials.  He refused to resign, and could not go along with the second big taxcut to the Rich, saying that this could destroy the economy and the dollar.  Greenspan couched his words, but feels the same.  The danger is real, according to O'Neill, Greenspan and Krugman--the latter refused to appear with the GOP spokesman on NPR.   It's very close to blood being drawn.

Cheney is not 'acting President' whatever that means.  He may be a useful advisor.  But anything he does is delegated by Bush - by definition!  As for O'Neal, the man is a laughingstock - his economic ideas are amazingly irrational for a former CEO (shows how smart they are).  He's barely a Republican - sort of a crackpot moderate like Perot.  Like Perot, he's another know-nothing egotistical fomer CEO who hasn't an iota of political sense.  Now he's been rightly kicked out and he's crying to the press, making up a lot of lies.  The only thing that worries me about he whole episode is what it says about Bush's judgement ever hiring such a useless loon.

[Gustaf]

What I want to know is when is Bush going to spend all that campaign $$ he's been collecting.  He's a punching bag.  Would be nice if the guy hit back every now and then.  Maybe if he gets down 15pts he may start fighting back.  At the rate he's going, that should be soon.

On the other hand, Karl Rove is the genius who had Bush barnstorming out of reach California the week before the 2000 election while Gore was solidifying his chances in Florida.

I'm just shaking my head.

Yeah, agcat, Rove is a typical boy genius - thinks he's able to outdo common sense with clever, innovative analysis.  Such hubris.  I hope some one reigns him in.

I suspect that political strategists are a bit like executives in companies - they don't really affect things a lot, just get the blame or credit for everything that happens.

[mossy]

On what do you attribute his selection by 3 administrations, and the 35-yr friendship with Alan Greenspan (They meet for a private lunch weekly for the past 35 years)?

Cite?

[© tweed]

UPDATED Kerry v. Bush:


Bush 275 to Kerry 263

[TheWildCard]

I predict (THIS MAY CHANGE):

John Kerry narrowly beats John Edwards for the nomination. Kerry then has to decide on a running mate. Many thoughts are hinted such as Bob Graham, Joseph Biden, and John Edwards himself. For awhile it looks like it will be a Kerry-Biden ticket, but soon Edwards is chosen by Kerry.

Bush has a very tough choice to make. Drop Vice President Cheney, or keep him. Cheney is dropped, due to his health. President Bush has a very tough decision. Elizabeth Dole, Rudy Giuliani, Bill Frist, Tom Ridge, and many more could be asked. Bush chooses Giuliani as his running mate.

On Election Night, Bush-Giuliani beats Kerry-Edwards by 405 to 133 votes.

Well, what do you think? Post your predicts like I did, and I will soon put my 2008 predictions.

Which states does Bush-Giuliani win that Bush-Cheney could not?

I'd say NY would be up for grabs(ok perhaps its wishful thinking on my part but Giuliani is loved in NY so...)

But I'd say its a 99.5% chance Cheney is still Bush's running mate come election time.

[© tweed]

Giuliani wouldn't win NY for bush, he wouldn't even get it with 10%.