Outside of Florida, Latinos basically stayed the same from 2020-->2022: report

[Ferguson97]

https://equisresearch.medium.com/2022-post-mortem-latino-voters-the-case-of-the-missing-red-wave-b76f19d6304c

Stability in the Battleground - Summary

1. The fundamentals, including rising costs & Biden job approval, looked dire for Dems. But inflation voters stayed home, Dobbs & democracy voters didn’t.

2. While the GOP increased outreach to Latino voters (or made indications they would), Democrats out-campaigned them in key races.

3. The force-field held. We saw the staying power of the traditional perception of the political parties among Latinos — the identity force-field — hold firm, even among the swingiest voters.

4. In Florida: a steep decline in Democratic support, in a way that reinforces the above. R’s out-campaigned D’s, fundamentals caught up with Dems & many Hispanic voters in FL adopted a new story about the parties. These realities only seemed to cast in relief the role of campaign effects, issue environment and party brands in enabling stability in the highly-contested states.

Pretty interesting stuff here.

[WalterWhite]

https://equisresearch.medium.com/2022-post-mortem-latino-voters-the-case-of-the-missing-red-wave-b76f19d6304c



Pretty interesting stuff here.

I think the fact that Marco Rubio won his Senate race by 16% has something to do with it.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I love how you omit the US house national vote for Latinos. It's 60-39. Biden got 62, Trump got 35.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

While not necessarily indicative of what will happen in future presidential elections, Carlos Odio's updates on Latino voters in the 2022 midterms are interesting.

https://twitter.com/carlosodio/status/1594738249104519168

A rough, preliminary snapshot of Latino voting in the midterm based on the precinct-level results the @EquisResearch team has analyzed so far, just in time for Thanksgiving…

First, big picture: the GOP narrative of a Latino red wave hinged on (1) a big showing in FL, (2) signature wins in TX, (3) gains in AZ and/or NV. Short version: they passed the first test and failed on the other two.

link to the actual report

The fundamentals, including rising costs & Biden job approval, looked dire for Democrats. But in the battleground states, inflation voters stayed home, Dobbs & democracy voters didn’t.

GOP spent heavily in Spanish to attack Cortez Masto on crime (the top issue of 4-6% of Latinos who gets news in Spanish)
In Spanish, Dems spent on contrast (mix of negative/positive), with heavy buy behind ads on prescription drugs & gas prices (cost of living was top issue for 25% of audience, economy for another 33%)

What keeps more conflicted Latinos from voting for Republicans?
In 2022, conflicted Latinos were concerned above all about Republicans prioritizing the rich and being extreme on abortion.
At the same time they were less likely to agree with characterizations of the GOP as “hostile to minorities” or a “threat” to democracy

What sticks out among conflicted voters is what sticks out across every kind of “swing” voter we’ve studied: the enduring sense that Democrats care more and are better for the group (Hispanics).
Those associations seem to win out even as Republicans gain ground on other dimensions.

Unsurprisingly, "moderate" Latino voters in FL apparently became R-leaning in contrast to the rest of the country where they're still D-leaning. The breakdown of Cuban, Puerto Rican, and non-Cuban/Puerto Rican voters in FL was interesting.

[Ferguson97]

I love how you omit the US house national vote for Latinos. It's 60-39. Biden got 62, Trump got 35.

?? I didn't omit anything, I'm posting a study.

[sting in the rafters]

While not necessarily indicative of what will happen in future presidential elections, Carlos Odio's updates on Latino voters in the 2022 midterms are interesting.

https://twitter.com/carlosodio/status/1594738249104519168

A rough, preliminary snapshot of Latino voting in the midterm based on the precinct-level results the @EquisResearch team has analyzed so far, just in time for Thanksgiving…

First, big picture: the GOP narrative of a Latino red wave hinged on (1) a big showing in FL, (2) signature wins in TX, (3) gains in AZ and/or NV. Short version: they passed the first test and failed on the other two.

link to the actual report

The fundamentals, including rising costs & Biden job approval, looked dire for Democrats. But in the battleground states, inflation voters stayed home, Dobbs & democracy voters didn’t.

GOP spent heavily in Spanish to attack Cortez Masto on crime (the top issue of 4-6% of Latinos who gets news in Spanish)
In Spanish, Dems spent on contrast (mix of negative/positive), with heavy buy behind ads on prescription drugs & gas prices (cost of living was top issue for 25% of audience, economy for another 33%)

What keeps more conflicted Latinos from voting for Republicans?
In 2022, conflicted Latinos were concerned above all about Republicans prioritizing the rich and being extreme on abortion.
At the same time they were less likely to agree with characterizations of the GOP as “hostile to minorities” or a “threat” to democracy

NOTHING BUT RESPECT FOR MY PROUD CULINARY UNION THUGS

[DaleCooper]

Given that, presumably, 2022 was a worse environment for Democrats than 2020 this may be brighter news for Democrats than hispanic support remaining the same. Though it's best not to read into it too much.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Well the interesting thing for me is the "prioritizing the rich". So it's obvious that someone like Haley, T. Scott or Pence would have problems(DeSantis too but not as much as those 3)

[Devils30]

It's pretty obvious this was the case right after the election when looking at results from NV and AZ. Even TX in the RGV wasn't anything special for the Rs and it's hard to judge a state by only Gov results considering incumbents got boosts across the board (outside NV).

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Well it means Dems were unable to win them back, and that Obama 2012 or Clinton 2016 margins might not happen again for a while.

[Devils30]

Well it means Dems were unable to win them back, and that Obama 2012 or Clinton 2016 margins might not happen again for a while.

These margins wont return, most of the Obama-Clinton-Trump Latino voters identified as "conservative." Dems probably more likely to win white libertarian-ish types than pick these voters back.

[Person Man]

I love how you omit the US house national vote for Latinos. It's 60-39. Biden got 62, Trump got 35.

We went from Biden winning by a little more than 4 to Generic Republican winning by 2. There was a six 6 point swing to the Republicans with both the national and Hispanic electorate and this is also accounting for Florida being 7% of the electorate and a huge outlier.

I don't think it's that the Hispanics in Florida are, on average, that much more different than Hispanics elsewhere or even that they "are neocons". It really could be that the FDP has very poor charisma and that the FGOP really coordinates very well between itself, its elected officials, and the institutions that are its primary constituents. Very much their own kind of "Souls to the Polls" deal that, so far, takes a lot of charisma, money, AND "edge" to counteract and only then to a limited extent.

It could also be because of something that I might talk about later in the next attempt at my own bronz threaf.

[Person Man]

Well it means Dems were unable to win them back, and that Obama 2012 or Clinton 2016 margins might not happen again for a while.

These margins wont return, most of the Obama-Clinton-Trump Latino voters identified as "conservative." Dems probably more likely to win white libertarian-ish types than pick these voters back.

They still are not at Bush-2004 level voters and with Dobbs, it puts the entire 2005-2010 strategy the Democrats had back on the table. That was:

1) limit the ethnic crossover appeal of Republicans, "stop the bleeding".
2) Knock on more doors of people who normally vote Republican but aren't comfortable with all the cultural stuff that the Republican are in to.
3) Generally try to target educated suburban white voters and rural non-religious white voters.

The thing that makes this possible is that some of the tech workers, bankers, and businessmen in the suburbs are more open to economic arguments than you think. Basically, Democrats will have to find increasingly assertive and credible answers to how expensive and sh**tty education, housing, and health care has gotten. Aggressively tow a strong reasonable ground on social and regulatory issues in both directions.

For example-
1) Abortion should be generally legal and accessible, but there should also be reasonable restrictions to prevent abusive and questionable practices. End Federal restrictions to abortion access, fight travel restrictions and make abortion up to 13 weeks non-negotiable, but otherwise make abortion an issue of personal conscience.

2) Same thing with the gay stuff. Be mindful that some things are unreasonable to accommodate. 

3) Shut down Defund the Police, Repartitions, and triage broad-stroke Affirmative Action. Talk about voting rights, police reform, and reforming education funding.

4) Gun Violence- try to avoid talking about any civilian gun bans but instead talk about background checks, red flag laws, and fine-tuning current restrictions and even allow gun rights reinstatement as a backdoor way of keeping tabs on gun ownership and violence.

5) Aggressively pursue and open up the table on big macro issues such as health care quality and large scale environmental issues like Global Warming. Aggressively flip on Nuclear Power. Double down against fossil fuels. Be even more aggressive on electric cars. On the other hand, try to find less aggressive ways to discourage ICE vehicles and gas stoves. Also acknowledge that there is a need for some tort reform as it distracts from other issues. i.e. suing employers and business for hiring "bad" people also adversely affects people from being rehabilitated. Suing hotels over people drowning in pools and tubs reduces the quality of the hotel experience. Keep Single Payer on the table, but also pursue ways to improve prevention with our current framework that doesn't discourage use of health care.

The message is good. It just has to be fine-tuned.

[Samof94]

Well it means Dems were unable to win them back, and that Obama 2012 or Clinton 2016 margins might not happen again for a while.

These margins wont return, most of the Obama-Clinton-Trump Latino voters identified as "conservative." Dems probably more likely to win white libertarian-ish types than pick these voters back.

A lot of them also have relatives who fled Venezuela between 2016 and 2020 as well.