Montana 2024 megathread

[NewYorkExpress]

https://flatheadbeacon.com/2023/06/13/lakeside-rep-tanner-smith-to-run-for-governor/

State Rep. Tanner Smith, R-Lakeside, a freshman legislator in the Montana House of Representatives, announced on Tuesday morning that he will run for governor in 2024.

Smith, the owner of a local construction business and a trustee for Somers Lakeside School District 29, represents Lakeside, Somers and the area south of Kalispell in the Montana Legislature. He served on the taxation, transportation and fish, wildlife and parks committees in the House of Representatives during the legislative session.

In a Tuesday press release, Smith emphasized “the power of Montana values and our way of life,” such as “hard work, self-reliance, and respect for our natural wonders,” and said that he is “determined to preserve and restore these values, ensuring a brighter future for every Montana.”

During a crowded Republican primary last fall, Smith campaigned for a seat in the Montana House of Representatives on a platform that prioritized regulating marijuana dispensaries, mitigating wildfires, reconfiguring property tax policies to limit their burden on the elderly and strengthening crime policy.

Smith during the Legislative session was a vocal advocate for the regulation and control of the marijuana industry in Montana, introducing House Bill 265, which would have increased the mandatory distance between a new cannabis business and public spaces such as churches and schools from 500 feet to 1,000 feet. The bill was tabled in January by the House Human Services Committee.

So far, no Democrats have announced a campaign in this race.

It doesn't look like Gianforte's in any real danger of being primaried out, but I'd be curious to see some polling of the primary here.

[President Johnson]

Quite unfortunate that Democrats can't and won't make a play here just four years after they still held that seat.

[SnowLabrador]

Quite unfortunate that Democrats can't and won't make a play here just four years after they still held that seat.

Democrats would be wise to at least run a credible candidate, that could benefit Tester in the Senate race. Of course, nobody wants to be a sacrificial lamb, and besides, Tester is unlikely to win reelection anyway. Still, you're right - it's sad that Montana is lost.

[NewYorkExpress]

Quite unfortunate that Democrats can't and won't make a play here just four years after they still held that seat.

Democrats would be wise to at least run a credible candidate, that could benefit Tester in the Senate race. Of course, nobody wants to be a sacrificial lamb, and besides, Tester is unlikely to win reelection anyway. Still, you're right - it's sad that Montana is lost.

Unlike Joe Manchin, there is a very narrow path to victory for Tester. It would require the Montana GOP completely screwing up the Senate nomination, plus it would require a relatively close Presidential race in Montana.

For what it's worth, with Gianforte bowing out of the Senate race, I think Tester's path to victory is actually open. He would have been DOA against Gianforte. He probably has to hope he's facing Rosendale or Zinke, though to have anywhere close to a realistic chance at reelection, though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Quite unfortunate that Democrats can't and won't make a play here just four years after they still held that seat.

Democrats would be wise to at least run a credible candidate, that could benefit Tester in the Senate race. Of course, nobody wants to be a sacrificial lamb, and besides, Tester is unlikely to win reelection anyway. Still, you're right - it's sad that Montana is lost.

Unlike Joe Manchin, there is a very narrow path to victory for Tester. It would require the Montana GOP completely screwing up the Senate nomination, plus it would require a relatively close Presidential race in Montana.

For what it's worth, with Gianforte bowing out of the Senate race, I think Tester's path to victory is actually open. He would have been DOA against Gianforte. He probably has to hope he's facing Rosendale or Zinke, though to have anywhere close to a realistic chance at reelection, though.

No it won't require a close Edays in MT because Tester unlike Bullock is the inc like Brown and Romney easily carried MT on 2012 and Tester as the inc won

The PVI in was 51/47 lol do you know what Tester and Brown, ALLRED and Wes Bell and Rod JOSEPH Approvals are 50% because Trump has been indicted he is a drag even in red states 35/61 Approvals and it's 18 MNTHS til Edays

Do you know the percentage of white females that vote R 42% not 60% that's enough for a blue wave with blks and Latinos it's not a white male Eday and WV is entirely different Justice was a Dixiecrats like Byrd turned R

If Eday played out today we would replicate the 303 map and split vote OH and MT 51/50 S and 5 seats in H but Eday is 18nths from now

[President Johnson]

Quite unfortunate that Democrats can't and won't make a play here just four years after they still held that seat.

Democrats would be wise to at least run a credible candidate, that could benefit Tester in the Senate race. Of course, nobody wants to be a sacrificial lamb, and besides, Tester is unlikely to win reelection anyway. Still, you're right - it's sad that Montana is lost.

Unlike Joe Manchin, there is a very narrow path to victory for Tester. It would require the Montana GOP completely screwing up the Senate nomination, plus it would require a relatively close Presidential race in Montana.

For what it's worth, with Gianforte bowing out of the Senate race, I think Tester's path to victory is actually open. He would have been DOA against Gianforte. He probably has to hope he's facing Rosendale or Zinke, though to have anywhere close to a realistic chance at reelection, though.

Tester has a robust approval rating unlike Manchin and Montana isn't West Virginia. I wouldn't say his path is just "very narrow". It's a tossup, especially against Rosendale.

[TML]

Quite unfortunate that Democrats can't and won't make a play here just four years after they still held that seat.

Democrats would be wise to at least run a credible candidate, that could benefit Tester in the Senate race. Of course, nobody wants to be a sacrificial lamb, and besides, Tester is unlikely to win reelection anyway. Still, you're right - it's sad that Montana is lost.

Unlike Joe Manchin, there is a very narrow path to victory for Tester. It would require the Montana GOP completely screwing up the Senate nomination, plus it would require a relatively close Presidential race in Montana.

For what it's worth, with Gianforte bowing out of the Senate race, I think Tester's path to victory is actually open. He would have been DOA against Gianforte. He probably has to hope he's facing Rosendale or Zinke, though to have anywhere close to a realistic chance at reelection, though.

Tester has a robust approval rating unlike Manchin and Montana isn't West Virginia. I wouldn't say his path is just "very narrow". It's a tossup, especially against Rosendale.

Remember that from 2014 onwards the only Democrats to win statewide races in Montana were those running for reelection to their existing posts, and that applied to Bullock in 2016 and Tester in 2018. All other contests during this time period involved Democrats who were running for positions they hadn't yet occupied and these contests ended up with Republican wins. On that basis, since Tester is running for reelection to his existing position, he shouldn't be counted out (also remember that he outran Obama by 17 points on the same ticket in 2012).

Of course, this means that pretty much any Democrat running for MT-Gov in 2024 would start out as an underdog, unless Gianforte somehow has additional skeletions in his closet that haven't yet been uncovered.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Quite unfortunate that Democrats can't and won't make a play here just four years after they still held that seat.

Democrats would be wise to at least run a credible candidate, that could benefit Tester in the Senate race. Of course, nobody wants to be a sacrificial lamb, and besides, Tester is unlikely to win reelection anyway. Still, you're right - it's sad that Montana is lost.

Unlike Joe Manchin, there is a very narrow path to victory for Tester. It would require the Montana GOP completely screwing up the Senate nomination, plus it would require a relatively close Presidential race in Montana.

For what it's worth, with Gianforte bowing out of the Senate race, I think Tester's path to victory is actually open. He would have been DOA against Gianforte. He probably has to hope he's facing Rosendale or Zinke, though to have anywhere close to a realistic chance at reelection, though.

Tester has a robust approval rating unlike Manchin and Montana isn't West Virginia. I wouldn't say his path is just "very narrow". It's a tossup, especially against Rosendale.

He's a Doomer not as bad as Snowlabrador

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This Smith guy looks interesting.

[Mexican Wolf]

It's very unlikely to happen, but I'd be extremely happy if Gianforte lost the general. He's by far my least favorite governor currently serving. But Democrats probably only have a shot at holding Tester's seat and picking up MT-01 next year.

[Pollster]

Democrats have a landed a decently credible candidate here, and a potential self-funder.

https://twitter.com/ryandbusse/status/1702293631560819081?s=20

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

My type of Democrat.

[Senator Incitatus]

I noticed he uh, never pronounced his last name.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I noticed he uh, never pronounced his last name.

You don't need to pronounce the name in order to love Busse.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I knew Ds fielded a candidate we have to have one to make S race competitive

[Senator Incitatus]

I noticed he uh, never pronounced his last name.

You don't need to pronounce the name in order to love Busse.

I wonder if Gianforte could be vulnerable to a primary challenge from Russ Fagg. Gianforte is a rich outsider, but Russ seems like the sort of nominee who could handle Busse.

[ajc0918]

I wish he would've run in MT-01.

[Duke of York]

Nice to see credible candidate running here. Exactly the kind of person we need to win statewide. Gianforte is still favored in a general election but the margin could be close if Busse gains traction.

[Tekken_Guy]

I could see him potentially doing better than Cooney but I’ll be surprised to see him actually winning.

[Dave Hedgehog]

Will be interested to see if this seat becomes competitive again under the right circumstances. Gianforte is dragging his feet on declaring for a second term so I wonder if something’s going on there. Given how he trounced Cooney last time round (while Cooney still held statewide office as well) and has maintained solid approvals since, I think an open seat is the only way D’s will have any chance here.

[TML]

Will be interested to see if this seat becomes competitive again under the right circumstances. Gianforte is dragging his feet on declaring for a second term so I wonder if something’s going on there. Given how he trounced Cooney last time round (while Cooney still held statewide office as well) and has maintained solid approvals since, I think an open seat is the only way D’s will have any chance here.

Speaking of Cooney, he was running for a position he wasn’t already occupying back in 2020 (as was Bullock), so that greatly reduced his incumbency advantage. Additionally, his political instincts weren’t as good as those of Bullock and/or Tester. Furthermore, from 2014 onwards the only Democratic statewide victories in MT have been incumbent officeholders running for re-election to their existing posts (which was true of Bullock in 2016 and Tester in 2018), while all other Democratic statewide candidates running for posts they hadn’t already occupied (this includes Democratic candidates who were termed out of their existing positions in 2016/2020) fell short in their respective races.

[Dave Hedgehog]

Will be interested to see if this seat becomes competitive again under the right circumstances. Gianforte is dragging his feet on declaring for a second term so I wonder if something’s going on there. Given how he trounced Cooney last time round (while Cooney still held statewide office as well) and has maintained solid approvals since, I think an open seat is the only way D’s will have any chance here.

Speaking of Cooney, he was running for a position he wasn’t already occupying back in 2020 (as was Bullock), so that greatly reduced his incumbency advantage. Additionally, his political instincts weren’t as good as those of Bullock and/or Tester. Furthermore, from 2014 onwards the only Democratic statewide victories in MT have been incumbent officeholders running for re-election to their existing posts (which was true of Bullock in 2016 and Tester in 2018), while all other Democratic statewide candidates running for posts they hadn’t already occupied (this includes Democratic candidates who were termed out of their existing positions in 2016/2020) fell short in their respective races.

I agree with your points. It does seem however like the state is going down the same path as West Virginia, used to be quite friendly to downballot Democrats but is now picking them off one by one as more and more people just vote straight R tickets. Granted Cooney wasn’t an incumbent governor but as the lieutenant to a popular D governor facing an odious character well known for a public act of physical aggression, the race should have been closer than it ultimately was. The fact that both he and Bullock went down by double digits in their respective 2020 races poses a possibly insurmountable challenge to Tester next year. The problem is not that Republicans are winning all the downballot races now, but that they are winning them easily.

[TML]

Will be interested to see if this seat becomes competitive again under the right circumstances. Gianforte is dragging his feet on declaring for a second term so I wonder if something’s going on there. Given how he trounced Cooney last time round (while Cooney still held statewide office as well) and has maintained solid approvals since, I think an open seat is the only way D’s will have any chance here.

Speaking of Cooney, he was running for a position he wasn’t already occupying back in 2020 (as was Bullock), so that greatly reduced his incumbency advantage. Additionally, his political instincts weren’t as good as those of Bullock and/or Tester. Furthermore, from 2014 onwards the only Democratic statewide victories in MT have been incumbent officeholders running for re-election to their existing posts (which was true of Bullock in 2016 and Tester in 2018), while all other Democratic statewide candidates running for posts they hadn’t already occupied (this includes Democratic candidates who were termed out of their existing positions in 2016/2020) fell short in their respective races.

I agree with your points. It does seem however like the state is going down the same path as West Virginia, used to be quite friendly to downballot Democrats but is now picking them off one by one as more and more people just vote straight R tickets. Granted Cooney wasn’t an incumbent governor but as the lieutenant to a popular D governor facing an odious character well known for a public act of physical aggression, the race should have been closer than it ultimately was. The fact that both he and Bullock went down by double digits in their respective 2020 races poses a possibly insurmountable challenge to Tester next year. The problem is not that Republicans are winning all the downballot races now, but that they are winning them easily.

2020 was also unique that due to the pandemic, mail-in voting was greatly increased (according to official statistics, almost 99% of ballots cast that year were absentee ballots) and Democrats drastically reduced in-person campaigning. These factors resulted in many of the new voters being R-leaning instead of D-leaning (since mail-in voting benefits rural whites much more than Native Americans living on reservations), which would explain why Republicans won races in MT by larger-than-expected margins. I don’t expect these conditions to be repeated in 2024, and as for Tester, all he has to do is maintain his popularity and he should be fine (he has dramatically outrun his state’s partisan lean in the past - for example, in 2012 he outran Obama by 17 points, and in 2018 he was the only Democrat to win statewide office that year, aided by the fact that he was an incumbent running for re-election to his existing post).

But I do agree that Gianforte would be favored against whomever challenges him, unless his popularity tanks significantly.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Since this appears to be the new 'Montana' thread, I'll post this recent Guardian expose on Zooey Zephyr's most recent organizing efforts here. The voters in Zephyr's district should be so damn proud of her, because she's absolutely taken the attempt by Republicans to shut her down and shut her up, ran with it and turned it into a vehicle for so much good. Mad props to Representative Zephyr, and here's hoping she's able to continue even /w Montana seemingly turning more red over the years.

https://twitter.com/ZoAndBehold/status/1719479612554486234?s=20