Political Future of Josh Gottheimer

[MargieCat]

What is Gottheimer's political future?

Could he win a statewide primary for everything?

Could he join the other Jews with J-names (Josh Shapiro, Josh Green, JB Pritzker, Jared Polis, and very likely soon to be Josh Stein) and become a governor?

Might be a good way for Democrats to get him out of congress if they want someone more compliant for that seat.

[Rhenna]

I really don't think he'd win a statewide primary. As far as I'm aware, Mikie Sherrill is looking at running for Governor in 2025, and Menendez isn't retiring any time soon. The issue for Gottheimer is there's no other statewide positions to go for.

[The Arizonan]

What is Gottheimer's political future?

Could he win a statewide primary for everything?

Could he join the other Jews with J-names (Josh Shapiro, Josh Green, JB Pritzker, Jared Polis, and very likely soon to be Josh Stein) and become a governor?

Might be a good way for Democrats to get him out of congress if they want someone more compliant for that seat.

I could see him eventually getting elected to statewide office. On another note, they should try to recruit Josh Mandelbaum to run for Governor of Iowa after getting elected mayor of Des Moines.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

What is Gottheimer's political future?

Could he win a statewide primary for everything?

Could he join the other Jews with J-names (Josh Shapiro, Josh Green, JB Pritzker, Jared Polis, and very likely soon to be Josh Stein) and become a governor?

Might be a good way for Democrats to get him out of congress if they want someone more compliant for that seat.

I could see him eventually getting elected to statewide office. On another note, they should try to recruit Josh Mandelbaum to run for Governor of Iowa after getting elected mayor of Des Moines.

And Justin Bibb (Cleveland's Mayor) in Ohio?

[Ferguson97]

Word on the street is that Gottheimer is very likely to make a run for Governor.

[JM1295]

Word on the street is that Gottheimer is very likely to make a run for Governor.

I've heard some rumblings of Sherrill making run for Governor and I think Gottheimer would lose that fight against her. He's a fundraising machine, but Sherrill is no slouch and is much more well liked compared to Gottheimer.

[Ferguson97]

Word on the street is that Gottheimer is very likely to make a run for Governor.

I've heard some rumblings of Sherrill making run for Governor and I think Gottheimer would lose that fight against her. He's a fundraising machine, but Sherrill is no slouch and is much more well liked compared to Gottheimer.

Gottheimer still has a better chance at Governor than Senator, but he’s far too moderate to win a statewide primary.

[Sir Mohamed]

Word on the street is that Gottheimer is very likely to make a run for Governor.

I've heard some rumblings of Sherrill making run for Governor and I think Gottheimer would lose that fight against her. He's a fundraising machine, but Sherrill is no slouch and is much more well liked compared to Gottheimer.

Gottheimer still has a better chance at Governor than Senator, but he’s far too moderate to win a statewide primary.

Isn't Murphy also pretty moderate?

[NewYorkExpress]

If Gottheimer were interested in primarying Bob Menendez this year, he might actually win it (Menendez would probably be left with just the Hudson County line, quite honestly, if Gottheimer decided to go for it).

Other than that, he's probably stuck in the House until redistricting, at which point he's likely going to get double bunked with someone else if New Jersey loses another seat (I imagine progressives in the legislature would have the knives out for him in redistricting).

[Sol]

Word on the street is that Gottheimer is very likely to make a run for Governor.

I've heard some rumblings of Sherrill making run for Governor and I think Gottheimer would lose that fight against her. He's a fundraising machine, but Sherrill is no slouch and is much more well liked compared to Gottheimer.

Gottheimer still has a better chance at Governor than Senator, but he’s far too moderate to win a statewide primary.

Isn't Murphy also pretty moderate?

My understanding is is that Phil Murphy has actually governed quite to the left, despite coming out of Wall Street.

Murphy --> Gottheimer might be one of the worst same-party downgrades of the 21st century if it happens.

[kwabbit]

If Gottheimer were interested in primarying Bob Menendez this year, he might actually win it (Menendez would probably be left with just the Hudson County line, quite honestly, if Gottheimer decided to go for it).

Other than that, he's probably stuck in the House until redistricting, at which point he's likely going to get double bunked with someone else if New Jersey loses another seat (I imagine progressives in the legislature would have the knives out for him in redistricting).

NJ is unlikely to lose a seat in redistricting. In fact it almost gained one in the last apportionment. The reality is that Gottheimer can remain in the house as long as he wants. Even if he's double bunked, he would beat Pascrell or whoever replaces him since that district is way lower turnout.

Gottheimer would fairly easily beat Menendez but he is influential in the House so he will stay put. Although he could eye being the next Sinema too.

[kwabbit]

Word on the street is that Gottheimer is very likely to make a run for Governor.

I've heard some rumblings of Sherrill making run for Governor and I think Gottheimer would lose that fight against her. He's a fundraising machine, but Sherrill is no slouch and is much more well liked compared to Gottheimer.

Gottheimer still has a better chance at Governor than Senator, but he’s far too moderate to win a statewide primary.

Isn't Murphy also pretty moderate?

Murphy is a pretty generic liberal. He's no socialist, but doesn't have the centrist inclination that guides Gottheimer.

[S019]

If Gottheimer were interested in primarying Bob Menendez this year, he might actually win it (Menendez would probably be left with just the Hudson County line, quite honestly, if Gottheimer decided to go for it).

Other than that, he's probably stuck in the House until redistricting, at which point he's likely going to get double bunked with someone else if New Jersey loses another seat (I imagine progressives in the legislature would have the knives out for him in redistricting).

NJ is unlikely to lose a seat in redistricting. In fact it almost gained one in the last apportionment. The reality is that Gottheimer can remain in the house as long as he wants. Even if he's double bunked, he would beat Pascrell or whoever replaces him since that district is way lower turnout.

Gottheimer would fairly easily beat Menendez but he is influential in the House so he will stay put. Although he could eye being the next Sinema too.

He wouldn’t be the next Sinema, more like the next Carper. He would be firmly on the moderate side of the caucus but he isn’t an egoistic drama queen who would block legislation and then act obnoxious about it online. The problem with Sinema isn’t that she’s a centrist, there are plenty of centrists in the caucus, the problem is she blocks legislation for no good reason.

[NewYorkExpress]

If Gottheimer joined the Senate, I'd honestly say the closest comparison would be Olympia Snowe, in my opinion.

Relatively moderate, but with a tick to right or the left idiosyncratically.

[Ferguson97]

Word on the street is that Gottheimer is very likely to make a run for Governor.

I've heard some rumblings of Sherrill making run for Governor and I think Gottheimer would lose that fight against her. He's a fundraising machine, but Sherrill is no slouch and is much more well liked compared to Gottheimer.

Gottheimer still has a better chance at Governor than Senator, but he’s far too moderate to win a statewide primary.

Isn't Murphy also pretty moderate?

He's very much a mainstream Democrat.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Word on the street is that Gottheimer is very likely to make a run for Governor.

I've heard some rumblings of Sherrill making run for Governor and I think Gottheimer would lose that fight against her. He's a fundraising machine, but Sherrill is no slouch and is much more well liked compared to Gottheimer.

Gottheimer still has a better chance at Governor than Senator, but he’s far too moderate to win a statewide primary.

Isn't Murphy also pretty moderate?

He's very much a mainstream Democrat.

Rhetorically he's a mainstream Democrat but on a lot of more local issues, he's been shown to have some more Conservative tendencies, especially when it benefits him optically.

Still he's not some Joe Manchin type anyway you slice it. Also, state politicians like Governors generally tend to be a bit less partisan than national figures cause individual states and communities don't cleanly fit the partisan binary, and voters tend to be a bit more willing to break party lines and throw out hyper-partisan or corrupt Governors. Perhaps his close call in 2021 gave him a bit of a scare.

[MargieCat]

If Biden is re-elected, it might be an uphill battle to try and hold the governor's mansion.

Maybe NJ Dems should nominate Gottheimer as a pseudo-sacrifical lamb for Governor and if he wins, replace him in congress with someone a bit more left-leaning.

It seems like the district has gotten bluer since redistricting and it's not really a swing district anymore. They don't necessarily need a Blue Dog as this is not some rural Trumpy seat.

[Morning in Atlas]

Second place in the 2025 clown car primary.

Then again, I am very biased and I would not vote for Gottheimer under any circumstances. If I wanted to vote for someone who doesn't support the best Dem President since FDR, I would vote Republican.

[Senator Incitatus]

Gottheimer could easily win a statewide primary over Sherrill, who has limited outreach outside her district counties (in which the major primary vote base, Newark, is famously pathetic at turning out). He could probably primary Menendez tomorrow if he chose but it would leave too many scars. His interest is probably in a committee chairmanship.

[Ferguson97]

Gottheimer could easily win a statewide primary over Sherrill, who has limited outreach outside her district counties (in which the major primary vote base, Newark, is famously pathetic at turning out). He could probably primary Menendez tomorrow if he chose but it would leave too many scars. His interest is probably in a committee chairmanship.

Gottheimer is waaaay more limited in his reach outside of his district than Sherrill is.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Gottheimer could easily win a statewide primary over Sherrill, who has limited outreach outside her district counties (in which the major primary vote base, Newark, is famously pathetic at turning out). He could probably primary Menendez tomorrow if he chose but it would leave too many scars. His interest is probably in a committee chairmanship.

Imagine actually believing this

[Progressive Pessimist]

I don't see him winning anything statewide no matter how ambitious he is. I think he would be foolish to abandon the 5th district.

[kwabbit]

Gottheimer could easily win a statewide primary over Sherrill, who has limited outreach outside her district counties (in which the major primary vote base, Newark, is famously pathetic at turning out). He could probably primary Menendez tomorrow if he chose but it would leave too many scars. His interest is probably in a committee chairmanship.

Imagine actually believing this

What’s your take? That Menendez is successfully clearing the field through machine strongarming or that Gottheimer wouldn’t be able to win even if he ran. Maybe a Norcross scion would be able to take him on, but they wouldn’t be any more progressive or that much less corrupt than Menendez.

I think Kim or Sherrill could beat him comfortably. Gottheimer is definitely the weakest. Sherrill has the Bloomberg money too, as does Gottheimer.

[henster]

I think Gottheimer and Sherrill cut a deal if Menendez seat looks like it might open up. NJ politics is very machine oriented and they seem to prefer the backroom deals as opposed to messy primaries. Gottheimer goes for GOV and Sherrill runs for Senate, IMO Gottheimer just seems like the executive type.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Gottheimer could easily win a statewide primary over Sherrill, who has limited outreach outside her district counties (in which the major primary vote base, Newark, is famously pathetic at turning out). He could probably primary Menendez tomorrow if he chose but it would leave too many scars. His interest is probably in a committee chairmanship.

Imagine actually believing this

What’s your take? That Menendez is successfully clearing the field through machine strongarming or that Gottheimer wouldn’t be able to win even if he ran. Maybe a Norcross scion would be able to take him on, but they wouldn’t be any more progressive or that much less corrupt than Menendez.

I think Kim or Sherrill could beat him comfortably. Gottheimer is definitely the weakest. Sherrill has the Bloomberg money too, as does Gottheimer.

Both.  Gottheimer couldn’t win a statewide primary at this point, period.  Moreover, few if any of the important NJ Democratic power brokers like him nor does he even have any particularly notable allies.  Menendez has corruption issues, but has yet to be convicted of anything, so he’s not going anywhere.  Plus, Menendez is very close with a number of key players in NJ Democratic politics.  Norcross’ power has declined quite a bit lately, but even if it hadn’t, someone from his faction would get crushed against Menendez. 

In any case, the fact remains that the idea of Gottheimer winning a statewide primary (especially for US Senate) is simply Republican wish-casting.  If Gottheimer is delusional enough to run, he’ll lose the primary pretty badly.