Luxembourg general election: 8 October 2023

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Dei Lenk doing well in Kaerjeng

[Sir John Johns]

There a few very small parties centrist & pro european : Liberté (1.2%) and Fokus (2%). I wouldn't be surprised if they are hurting DP in particular

Liberté is actually a self-described ‘people’s movement for the people’ led by Roy Reding, a lawyer/TV journalist turn politician who served as an ADR deputy since 2013 but has left on last June to protest what he called the ‘populist discourse’ of the right-wing party. But the main reason seems to be that the ADR didn’t renominated Reding because of his anti-vax positions and because of his sentencing in first instance to one year in jail for fraud in a property transaction (Reding has since been acquitted on appeal). My guess is Liberté is rather taking votes from the ADR and from the Pirates Party, the two parties which have usually benefited from protest vote.

[windjammer]

Luxembourg, national parliament election today:   

40% counted   

CSV-EPP: 28.1% (+0.2)
LSAP-S&D: 19.8% (+0.3) 
DP-RE: 17.3% (+0.6) 
ADR-ECR: 12.1% (-0.1) 
PPLU-G/EFA: 7.1% 
Gréng-G/EFA: 6.7% (-0.1) 
Lénk-LEFT: 4.7% (-0.9)   



If these results get confirmed I think CSV would likely form the next govt. A coalition of 4 parties seems relatively difficult to implement.

[DavidB.]

On these numbers the government loses its majority, although I seem to remember that last time they only regained their majority later in the evening due to some counting bias.

But let's say they end up losing their majority, then simply expanding it by inviting the Pirates in seems illogical with the Greens losing so much. So in that case the CSV would come back into the picture. Would they prefer cooperation with DP or with LSAP?

[windjammer]

On these numbers the government loses its majority, although I seem to remember that last time they only regained their majority later in the evening due to some counting bias.

But let's say they end up losing their majority, then simply expanding it by inviting the Pirates in seems illogical with the Greens losing so much. So in that case the CSV would come back into the picture. Would they prefer cooperation with DP or with LSAP?

Probably with the DP

[Mike88]

The Gréng fall is just... wow. From 15% in 2018, to around 6-7% this time.

[Mike88]

On these numbers the government loses its majority, although I seem to remember that last time they only regained their majority later in the evening due to some counting bias.

But let's say they end up losing their majority, then simply expanding it by inviting the Pirates in seems illogical with the Greens losing so much. So in that case the CSV would come back into the picture. Would they prefer cooperation with DP or with LSAP?

Probably with the DP

But with a new DP leader, right? I'm not seeing Bettel serving in a CSV led government.

[windjammer]

On these numbers the government loses its majority, although I seem to remember that last time they only regained their majority later in the evening due to some counting bias.

But let's say they end up losing their majority, then simply expanding it by inviting the Pirates in seems illogical with the Greens losing so much. So in that case the CSV would come back into the picture. Would they prefer cooperation with DP or with LSAP?

Probably with the DP

But with a new DP leader, right? I'm not seeing Bettel serving in a CSV led government.

Exactly.

My belief is the following : considering that the LSAP has been campaigning on a progressive platform (38 hours work week) I'm sure it would be easier to form a coalition with DP than with LSAP.

Additionnally in Luxembourg inflation index still exist (if there is 5% inflation rate --> wages increase by 5%) and I'm sure there would be a ton of pressures to make a coalition between CSV and DP to reform/abolish this system

[Mike88]

60% counted: (compared with 2018)

29.0% CSV (+0.7)
18.8% LSAP (+1.2)
17.7% DP (+0.8 )
11.5% ADR (+3.2)
  7.1% PPLU (+0.6)
  7.1% Gréng (-8.0)
  4.3% Lénk (-1.2)
  2.2% Fokus (new)
  1.0% Liberté (new)
  0.7% KPL (-0.6)
  0.2% Volt (new)
  0.2% DK (-0.1)

[Mike88]

With the votes counted so far, the current seat projection:

21 CSV (nc)
13 DP (+1)
11 LSAP (+1)
  7 ADR (+3)
  4 PPLU (+2)
  3 Gréng (-6)
  1 Lénk (-1)

From here.

[windjammer]

Honestly,
I know a 4 parties coalition is difficult but I suppose Bettel (DP prime minister) will at least try to form that right? He has nothing to lose in the end. And the Pirates have always proven to be the most cooperative party among the opposition.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

The Gréng fall is just... wow. From 15% in 2018, to around 6-7% this time.

Expect to see something similar in Belgium next year.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

What's the reason for the Green collapse?

[windjammer]

What's the reason for the Green collapse?

Two main reasons :

1) They have been a victim of the Pirate's successes if I could say. They fundamentally have the same target electorate.

2) Some scandals at local level. I know the Greng mayor in Differdange had to resign due to some corruption.

[DavidB.]

Based on the percentages I'm seeing on the website, LSAP has 18.9% and DP has 18.7% but DP has 14 seats - almost 50% more seats than LSAP with 10 seats and more votes. Then I suppose LSAP is the victim of its support base being too South-centered. Either that, or the percentage is actually 'wrongly' calculated - voters can cast as many votes as there are seats in their district, which means the mostly South-based LSAP voters per definition cast more votes (as the South and Central districts have more seats) than DP voters who are spread out more evenly across the country. The question, then, is what this percentage actually means.

[MRCVzla]

Based on the percentages I'm seeing on the website, LSAP has 18.9% and DP has 18.7% but DP has 14 seats - almost 50% more seats than LSAP with 10 seats and more votes. Then I suppose LSAP is the victim of its support base being too South-centered. Either that, or the percentage is actually 'wrongly' calculated - voters can cast as many votes as there are seats in their district, which means the mostly South-based LSAP voters per definition cast more votes (as the South and Central districts have more seats) than DP voters who are spread out more evenly across the country. The question, then, is what this percentage actually means.

On the site with the official results (elections.public.lu) they also have the results in "theoretical voters", they divide the votes of each party with the seats in their respective constituency (Ex: the votes that a party obtained in the South constituency divided by the 23 seats to be distributed ) and then add the results of the 4 constituencies so that the valid votes are more similar to the actual turnout figure, that is, the more than 200k votes instead of the more than 3 million that appear in the headline result (since each voter in Luxembourg has to give the same number of preferences as there are seats in its constituency).

In this result with "theoretical voters" with 99% counted, CSV has 29.8%, DP 19.1% and LSAP 18.2%, ADR 9.6%, the Greens 8.3%, the Pirates with 6.6% and the Left 3.6%

[DavidB.]

In this result with "theoretical voters", CSV has 29.9%, DP 19.1% and LSAP 18.2%, ADR 9.6%, the Greens 8.3%, the Pirates with 6.6% and the Left 3.6%

Thank you. In that case, DP still receives "too many seats" for their electoral performance if you take the above into account. This was already the case in 2018, but the seat gap with LSAP - both times bigger than DP in terms of "theoretical voters"! - has increased now: from 12-10 to 14-10. I wonder if there are any calls to make this system more fair.

[DavidB.]

LSAP have gained an 11th seat at the expense of ADR, who now have 5. This gives a potential coalition of DP-LSAP-Greens-Pirates 32 out of 60 seats, a majority of 2. Let's see.

[Mike88]

Final results, 100% counted:

29.2% CSV, 21 seats
18.9% LSAP, 11
18.7% DP, 14
  9.3% ADR, 5
  8.6% Gréng, 4
  6.7% PPLU, 3
  3.9% Lénk, 2
  4.7% Others

Possible coalitions: (31 for a majority)

CSV+DP: 35
DP+LSAP+Gréng+PPLU: 32
DP+LSAP+Gréng: 30

[windjammer]

Alright I think we are clearly aiming for a CSV-DP govt

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I don't have anything to say except that I am glad to find Mike88 so active in the thread about the second Lusophone country of Europe.

[Sir John Johns]

Maps of the most-voted party by commune and of all parties which received a result over 1%.



* The CSV placed ahead in the vast majority of the communes except several communes in the southwest Terres rouges ('Red Lands', named after the color of the soils; Minettsgéigend in Luxembourgish; Land der roten Erde), a region historically dominated by steel industry and iron mining where the LSAP came first notably in Dudelange (33.7%), Differdange (26.9%) and Pétange (24.2%) and was outstripped by a narrow margin by the CSV in Esch-sur-Alzette (25.1% against 25.2%) and a few communes here and there like Steinfort – a former industrial town won by the LSAP (27.4%) and which is a socialist stronghold led by Jean Asselborn (deputy prime minister under Juncker between 2004 and 2013) –, Echternach (won by the DP with 29.3% of the vote against 25.7% for the CSV) or Mondorf-les-Bains (a spa town with the only casino of the country which was won by the DP with 35.4%). The CSV also placed first in the capital, with 27.9% against 27.8% for the DP, 13.0% for the Greens and 10.7% for the LSAP.

* While the support for the CSV was relatively evenly distributed, the Christian Democrat party did comparatively better in the rural areas, especially in the northern part of the country (Éislek or Ösling, less densely populated, more agricultural and poorer), while receiving results under its national result in the (post-)industrial towns of the Terres rouges (21.7% in Differdange, its worst commune; 22.7% in Dudelange; 23.6% in Pétange). It also overperformed in Hesperange, the rather wealthy suburb of Luxembourg, where it received 36.2% of the votes against 22.7% for the DP, 11.1% for the Greens and 10.6% for the LSAP. Best commune of the CSV was Wormeldange (40.4%), also the commune with the largest wine-growing area in the country.

* The LSAP got its best results in the historical industrialized parts of the country (which also tends to be some of the poorest ones now), receiving over 30% of the votes in two communes in the Terres rouges (Rumelange and Dudelange) and over 20% of the votes in 16 other communes including in addition to the aforementioned Steinfort, Differdange and Pétange, Käerjeng (21.7%) and Diekirch (22.3%), two brewery towns, Wiltz (25.1%), the most-populated commune and the only industrial center in the Éislek with a tradition of union activism (the 1942 general strike against the German occupation started there and the current LSAP mayor is a former secretary-general for the OGBL union regional wing) and Mertert (27.5% against 28.3% for the CSV), the only fluvial commercial port in Luxembourg. Conversely, it received its worst results (the six communes it received under 11.1% of the votes) in Luxembourg City and its nearest suburbs: 10.7% in Luxembourg City; 10.6% in Hesperange; 9.8% in Bertrange; 10.6% in Walferdange and 11.1% in Strassen and Contern.

* Support for the DP is mostly concentrated in the southeastern part of the country, especially Luxembourg City (27.8%, the party’s seventh best commune) and its suburbs (30.3% in Strassen; 30.1% in Bertrange) and in the Moselle upper valley (24.7% in Schengen; 23.4% in Remich; 24.4% in Wormeldange) while it under-performed in the Éislek and, especially, in the Terres rouges: its five worst communes are all located in the canton of Esch-sur-Alzette and comprised Dudelange (9.8%, its worst commune) and Rumelange (11.2%).

* The ADR map is pretty much peripheral Luxembourg (and mostly the reverse of the Greens’ one) with support mostly concentrated in the Éislek (its best commune with 18.1%, the 1,200-inhabitants Kiischpelt, is located there) and, to a lesser extent, in the Terres rouges: 13.1% and 13.3% in the former mining towns of Kayl and Frisange (the latter one, whose main economic activity is the sale of gasoline and cigarettes to French border residents attracted by the lower taxes on that products in Luxembourg, has been ruled by an ADR mayor until 2005), 12.0% in Differdange.

* Support for the ecologist Déi gréng is heavily concentrated in the agglomeration of Luxembourg City: the three communes in which the party received above 13.0% of the vote (Luxembourg-City, 13.0%; Schuttrange, 13.4%; Walferdange, 13.2%) are all located in the canton of Luxembourg and so are eight of the sixteen communes in which it received between 10.0% and 13.0% of the votes. It additionally received 11.7% of the votes in Beckerich (a commune in the canton of Redange and led by a Green mayor since 1990) and 10.9% in the neighboring commune of Saeul, the less populated commune in the country. Conversely, Déi gréng received a support slightly under its national result in Dudelange (8.5%) and a mediocre result in Esch-sur-Alzette (6.8%). Its worst communes are including Differdange (5.0%), Wiltz (4.6%), Mondorf-les-Bains (4.7%), Pétange (5.4%) and Rumelange (4.0%, its worst commune at national level).

* Pirate Party received a support under its national result in Luxembourg City, with only 5.9% of the vote. The party did slightly better in Dudelange (6.1%) and Esch-sur-Alzette (6.2%) while the only other relatively important urban centers it did well were Ettelbruck (6.9%) and Differdange (7.6%). Indeed, Pirate Party comparatively received better results in the small towns of the northern part of the country (7.8% in Vianden; 7.6% in Wiltz; 8.1% in Mersch) while receiving its best results in the rather rural and more sparsely populated northwest part of the country. Its performance in Pétange (13.1%, second best commune), in the Terres rouges, is also noticeable. The party’s best commune was Colmar-Berg (13.7%) which elected the first and only Pirate mayor of the country in last June.

* Déi Lénk received its best result (7.3%) in Esch-sur-Alzette and did well in the Terres rouges with, for example 4.9% in Dudelange, 4.4% in Differdange, 5.4% in Sanem or 4.9% in Schifflange. Contrasting with the poor results of the LSAP there, Déi Lénk received 4.6% in Luxembourg City, making the capital the party’s ninth best commune. However, the party received only 2.0% in Wiltz, again contrasting with the performance of the LSAP there.

* Fokus’s best communes were Heffingen (7.9%) where the party has an échevin (alderman), Vichten (6.3%) the only commune it controlled the mayorship, and Colmar-Berg whose former mayor (a former LSAP deputy) is one of the founders of the party. More generally, it seems that support for Fokus is to a large extent co-related with support from past or present local officials, surely the logical consequence of being a party self-described as ‘pragmatic’ and ‘without a fixed ideology’.

* Liberté-Fräiheet! did better in the northern part of the country. Its eighth best commune was Colmar-Berg (2.3%), which really seems to be in love with outsider parties. It didn’t do well at all in the Terres rouges (0.9% in Differdange and Esch-sur-Alzette; 1.0% in Dudelange) and slightly under-performed in Luxembourg City (1.1%).

[Sir John Johns]

As requested, a map of the change in support for the major parties compared to the 2018 legislative elections: blue is indicating an increased support since 2018; red a reduced support. The dotted line in the maps’ key is indicating the change in support at national level.

[Mike88]

CSV starts talks to lead a government:

After winning a general election at the weekend, Luxembourg’s center-right Christian Social People’s Party (CSV) will lead coalition talks with outgoing Prime Minister Xavier Bettel’s liberal Democratic Party (DP), both parties announced late Monday.

That puts CSV leader Luc Frieden, a former finance minister and ex-president of industry and services lobby Eurochambres, in pole position to become the country’s next prime minister.

“This is obviously a great honor and a great responsibility, as it involves preparing the future of this country. I have accepted this mission,” Frieden said Monday evening after meeting with the Grand Duke of Luxembourg — the country’s head of state — who put him in charge of leading the coalition negotiations.

Bettel, who has been appointed by the DP to lead discussions with Frieden, said his party was “ready to take responsibilities in the future government with Luc Frieden as prime minister.”

Bettel has said he is willing to remain in government even without being prime minister, but there has been speculation that he is gunning for a top European job in Brussels.
(...)

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

As always, fully proportional results

Luxembourg 2023

CSV: 18 seats (-3)
LSAP: 11 seats (+/- 0)
DP: 11 seats (-3)
ADR: 6 seats (+1)
Gréng: 5 seats (+1)
PPLU: 4 seats (+1)
Lénk: 2 seats (+/- 0)
Fokus: 2 seats (+2)
L-F!: 1 seat (+1)

Fokus [1.4960 quotas] gets the last seat over KPL [0.3870 quotas] by 6836 votes.

Possible coalitions:
CSV+DP+Fokus: 31 seats
DP+LSAP+Gréng+PPLU: 31 seats

CSV+DP no longer possible but considering Fokus' explicitly nonpartisan and pragmatic position I expect they'd be happy to join up to get them to 31.