Luxembourg general election: 8 October 2023

[windjammer]

There were mayoral elections today.

Below are the main parties in Luxembourg:

- CSV: a christian democrat party. It used to be the dominant party in Luxembourg but they have been in the opposition for the last 8 years.

- LSAP: typical social democratic party.

- DP: tipical liberal pro european party.

- Greng: well they are the Luxembourg greens.

- ADR: a more rightwing party than CSV: more eurosceptic, they are not against immigration but want to regulate it and reduce it for "better growth".

-Piraten: a typical pirate party. Given Luxembourg is wealthy and there are no major problems, not surprising the Pirates are quite strong in Luxembourg.

For the past 8 years, the current luxembourgish government has been a coalition between LSAP, DP and Greng. Below what they achieved:
        x More days off for workers. Additionnally if a public holiday ends up being on Saturday or on Sunday, the Luxembourgish workers automatically gain a new day off.
        x Free transportation: every public transportation (train, tramway, bus,...) are for free in Luxembourg.
        X Big infrastructure projects: they have been building a new tramway in Luxembourg city and it's going to progressively grow to connect with the South (Esch sur Alzette the second biggest city in Luxembourg).


Basically, if I can sum up everything:

- DP's stronghold is Luxembourg city and the cities around it.

- CSV is particularly strong in the rural north.

- LSAP and the left overall are particularly strong in the south where there are all these historical industrial cities with a big working class: Esch sur Alzette, Differdange,...



I will comment more when all the results will be available but if I could sum my first impression:

- DP and LSAP seem to be progressing and be doing very well for the moment.

- CSV are having okayish results.

-The Pirates are making their entry into the future local councils.

-The greens are the big losers of these elections

[Mike88]

The results are very good for Bettel's DP and a disappointment for the CSV:

26.1% CSV (-4.4), 193 (-16)
21.3% LSAP (-2.7), 155 (nc)
20.6% DP (+2.5), 134 (+26)
12.7% Déi Gréng (-3.7), 64 (-13)

Results from here.

[DavidB.]

CSV have now been in opposition for years, but they're only losing further ground.

[windjammer]

CSV have now been in opposition for years, but they're only losing further ground.

It's a bit similar with CDA---> VVD honestly. A country slowly secularizing

[MaxQue]

CSV have now been in opposition for years, but they're only losing further ground.

Indeed, the last poll in November had:

CSV 15 (-6)
LSAP 13 (+3)
DP 12 (0)
Greng 8 (-1)
Pirates 6 (+4)
ADR 4 (0)
Lenk 2 (0)

The CSV not finishing first for the first time ever is a distinct possibility.

[Mike88]

Luxembourg goes to the polls this Sunday to elect a new Parliament. The latest indicators suggest that CSV will remain as the largest party but unable to return to power due to lack of allies and LSAP, DP and the Greens could hold on to power.

However, current PM Xavier Bettel, in office since 2013, could face complications in remaing at the top job as his Democratic Party (DP) could lose seats and see its coalition partner, the Socialist Workers' Party (LSAP), grow in votes and seats. LSAP could demand the post of PM if it gains more votes and seats compared with 2018.

A POLITICO report on the election: https://www.politico.eu/article/xavier-bettel-future-poll-luxembourg-election-csv/

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I'm not sure its secularism so much as Christian Democracy needs a particular form of a social contract that requires more buy in than individualist liberalism. It's like when trying to keep Labour parties around in a society where nobody is in a union.

[windjammer]

Regarding Luxembourg, everything can happen. Bettel could be reelected, the socialist candidate could become prime minister and the csv could be forming the next government.
Based on the polls there are so many potential coalitions.

The main issue is clearly housing. It was difficult before the Ukraine War and it has become worse

[windjammer]

In my case, I am supporting the LSAP because they are backing 38 hours work week (currently it is 40 hours work week). I believe people should spend more time with their family than being at work. Let's continue to support the gradual work week reduction that started in the past century!

[crals]

In the local elections earlier this year the liberals were the only party of the big 4 to gain ground, now it's the socialists according to the polling. Why is that?

[MaxQue]

In the local elections earlier this year the liberals were the only party of the big 4 to gain ground, now it's the socialists according to the polling. Why is that?

Last local elections were not the same year as last general election.
Also, local elections have local factors.

[crals]

In the local elections earlier this year the liberals were the only party of the big 4 to gain ground, now it's the socialists according to the polling. Why is that?

Last local elections were not the same year as last general election.
Also, local elections have local factors.

Of course. I was just wondering if something had happened since.

[Mike88]

In the local elections earlier this year the liberals were the only party of the big 4 to gain ground, now it's the socialists according to the polling. Why is that?

Last local elections were not the same year as last general election.
Also, local elections have local factors.

Of course. I was just wondering if something had happened since.

Let's take polling with a grain of salt. We'll see what happens tomorrow. Like Windjammer said, the outcome is open.

[windjammer]

In the local elections earlier this year the liberals were the only party of the big 4 to gain ground, now it's the socialists according to the polling. Why is that?

The leader of the LSAP (Paulette Reinert) is very popular as she was minister of health and she handled well COVID.


Honestly I don't think there would be Big changes in comparison with the last election apart from the greens losing ground and the pirates gaining momentum.

It's the negotiations post elections that are going to matter

[windjammer]

In the local elections earlier this year the liberals were the only party of the big 4 to gain ground, now it's the socialists according to the polling. Why is that?

Last local elections were not the same year as last general election.
Also, local elections have local factors.

Of course. I was just wondering if something had happened since.

One important thing to take into account : in the last locals elections, the expats from the EU (40-50% of the population) could vote and they are a very liberal leaning low turnout group
That won't be the case for tomorrow

[Mike88]

I believe that polls close in half an hour, right?

[Estrella]

I believe that polls close in half an hour, right?

It seems that at least the TV coverage of Chamberwalen (10/10 French-German, that word) starts at 19:00.

[Mike88]

I believe that polls close in half an hour, right?

It seems that at least the TV coverage of Chamberwalen (10/10 French-German, that word) starts at 19:00.

Europe Elects says that polls close at 2pm local time, in 3 minutes time. Maybe the count is a bit slow, because of the electoral system, and the first results only start coming out during the late afternoon.

[Mike88]

Just found out a curious thing about the Luxembourg election: Members of the royal family can cast ballots, only the Grand Duke is not allowed to vote. Interesting.

[windjammer]

From what I Heard it's going to be a disaster for the greens

[windjammer]

Luxembourg, national parliament election today:
5% counted

CSV-EPP: 27.3% (-1.0)
LSAP-S&D: 20.7% (+3.1)
PPLU-G/EFA: 7.8% (+1.3)
Gréng-G/EFA: 8.0% (-7.1)
DP-RE: 16.3% (-0.6)
ADR-ECR: 11.5% (+3.2)
Lénk-LEFT: 4.6% (-0.9)

(Europe Elects)

Way too early to draw some conclusion except that the Greens are getting destroyed

[windjammer]

Luxembourg, national parliament election today:

10% counted

CSV-EPP: 27.3%
LSAP-S&D: 21.1% (+0.4)
DP-RE: 16.2% (-0.1)
ADR-ECR: 11.9% (+0.4)
PPLU-G/EFA: 7.5% (-0.3)
Gréng-G/EFA: 7.3% (-0.7)
Lénk-LEFT: 4.4% (-0.2)



There a few very small parties centrist & pro european : Liberté (1.2%) and Fokus (2%). I wouldn't be surprised if they are hurting DP in particular

[windjammer]

Luxembourg, national parliament election today: 

25% counted 

CSV-EPP: 27.9% (+0.6)
LSAP-S&D: 19.5% (-1.6)
DP-RE: 16.7% (+0.5)
ADR-ECR: 12.2% (+0.3)
PPLU-G/EFA: 7.1% (-0.4)
Gréng-G/EFA: 6.8% (-0.5)
Lénk-LEFT: 5.6% (+2.2) 

[Sir John Johns]

Map of the provisional results can be seen on L'Essentiel website. For the moment, the LSAP is leading in Dudelange and Differdange; the DP in Echternach; the CSV in Esch-sur-Alzette and in Luxembourg City.

[MaxQue]

Luxembourg, national parliament election today: 

25% counted 

CSV-EPP: 27.9% (+0.6)
LSAP-S&D: 19.5% (-1.6)
DP-RE: 16.7% (+0.5)
ADR-ECR: 12.2% (+0.3)
PPLU-G/EFA: 7.1% (-0.4)
Gréng-G/EFA: 6.8% (-0.5)
Lénk-LEFT: 5.6% (+2.2) 

Actually less than that, as it's only list votes. People who voted for a person instead of a list are not counted yet.