How well known do presidential contenders have to be in the current media environment?

[Mister Mets]

There's an idea that it may be easier now than ever for an obscure presidential candidate to break out in a primary. There are less gatekeepers, and so many more opportunities for free media.

A counterargument is that the days in which an obscure Governor can win a nomination are done. Politics is nationalized to the extent that you need a national reputation to win a primary. Even if someone obscure can win an early primary, they're not going to be able to scale up in time to be competitive when the bulk of the delegates can win.

Another nuance is that it may depend on the political environment. In a race without a clear frontrunner, someone obscure could win. But that's not the current cycle.

How do you guys see these things?

[Agonized-Statism]

It seems like now you need either a fairly extensive political background for pundits to discuss or an eye-catching campaign like Trump's in 2016.

[Mister Mets]

It seems like now you need either a fairly extensive political background for pundits to discuss or an eye-catching campaign like Trump's in 2016.

Trump had the advantage of being very well-known. Pretty much everyone in America knew who he was.

I don't think extensive political backgrounds are enough. Plenty of Senators and Governors get stuck in the low single digits.

One question is whether you pretty much need to be as well-known as Elizabeth Warren (to pick a high-profile Senator) to have a chance in a presidential primary.

[DS0816]

How do you guys see these things?

If by “current media,” you mean traditional, linear broadcast and cable programmers…they are, in current form, dying out.

[Mister Mets]

How do you guys see these things?

If by “current media,” you mean traditional, linear broadcast and cable programmers…they are, in current form, dying out.

I mean the media we have right now, and are likely to have in early 2024 when partisans vote in primaries.

There are more ways than ever for obscure candidates to get their message out, but that's not to be enough for a strong showing.