Can California ever vote Republican on the Presidential level by 2052?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

30 years ago California started becoming a blue state. Will it remain that way in the next 30 years or will the political geography change once more.

[Vosem]

Sure; 30 years is a long time and there are plenty of examples of larger gaps being overturned. I’m not sure I’d bet on it, given increasingly prevalent state-by-state cultural sorting and the general stickiness of the current electoral map, but your timespan is such that it’s clearly not out of the question or anything.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Perhaps if an incumbent GOP president is getting overwhelmingly reelected in the 2040s?  It does seem like California might be trending slightly Republican- not nearly enough to make the state competitive, but maybe it will only be 10-15 points left of the nation in 20-30 years.

[TodayJunior]

No. 1988 was the last time this will ever happen. It’s as Democrat entrenched as a state can be.

[S019]

It could, I don’t know if it will, but I have no idea how politics will look in 2052, so I’d say it’s a possibility.

[Ragnaroni]

The South voted strongly Democrat until the 1970s and 1990s/2000s on the federal level and local level respectively. Vermont was a deeply Republican state even in the 1980s, now its the bluest of the blue. Why couldn't California swing back to the GOP in a few decades? Maybe the demographics that make it so blue won't be blue by that point. Maybe CA will be to the right of TX in 2052?

[MarkD]

Sure, it CAN, but it isn't likely unless there's a Republican landslide nationwide, or a drastic partisan realignment.

[RINO Tom]

I actually think that if it does, it will be "from the ground up," so to speak.  While California kept going for Republicans like Reagan and Bush through the 1980s and early 1990s, there were "cracks" down-ballot.  Democrats took both chambers of the state legislature in 1971, and they only briefly gave up control since then.  Democrats generally also held positions like Treasurer and Lieutenant Governor more than Republicans, and the Governor's mansion switched back and forth more than people might think.

Similarly, if Republicans are to have a revival in California, I think they'd have to address things at the state level first.  You would need a reaction by moderate Californians to Democratic overreach to start building up a base of people even open to voting GOP.  I honestly think it would work sort of the opposite way of the Solid South, where people start voting Republican locally due to their frustration with Sacramento while maintaining a refusal to support the national GOP; you would then need a sort of "perfect storm" of the GOP (A) becoming a bit more socially and/or culturally moderate, (B) it being a good national environment for Republicans anyway and (C) the California GOP being at its (relative) height at a state level ... and you'd need all three to happen during the same cycle.