Can the NJGOP win post-Roe?

[Suburbia]

Jack Ciattarelli got 48% of the vote in the November 2021 governor's election. That was before Roe was overturned in June 2022.

Republicans need to win 6 seats in the state Senate and 7 seats in the Assembly in the 2023 legislative elections.....and in 2025, they will be aiming to push Chris Christie off as the face of the NJGOP and electing a Republican governor....

Post-Roe, can they win, or will women shut out the NJGOP for a generation?

[S019]

I mean I think they can and NJ Republicans tend to be fairly moderate on social issues, and it's not like the D legislature would ever agree to ban abortion.

[Suburbia]

I mean I think they can and NJ Republicans tend to be fairly moderate on social issues, and it's not like the D legislature would ever agree to ban abortion.

Although most NJ Republicans are socially moderate, Dems will still paint them as antiabortion, attracting female voters in the suburbs that were once rock-ribbed Republican strongholds. Kean Jr.'s district is a swing area and he could be a one-termer if abortion is constantly talked about in 2024.

A pro-life Republican could win a primary, and could cost Republicans the governorship. NJGOP does not want Chris Christie to be the last standard bearer of the party, they haven't won in 12 years (2013) and they want to move fresh with a new standard-bearer.

[JGibson]

The reason why Ciattarelli got as close as he did in 2021 is due in part to the backlash over COVID mitigations.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

I mean I think they can and NJ Republicans tend to be fairly moderate on social issues, and it's not like the D legislature would ever agree to ban abortion.

Although most NJ Republicans are socially moderate, Dems will still paint them as antiabortion, attracting female voters in the suburbs that were once rock-ribbed Republican strongholds. Kean Jr.'s district is a swing area and he could be a one-termer if abortion is constantly talked about in 2024.

A pro-life Republican could win a primary, and could cost Republicans the governorship. NJGOP does not want Chris Christie to be the last standard bearer of the party, they haven't won in 12 years (2013) and they want to move fresh with a new standard-bearer.

NY Dems tried this in 2022 and performed terribly. Running on abortion only works in states (for state/local elections) where voters believe it to be plausibly under threat from state officials. It is not going to work in states like NJ. 

[Holmes]

Any party can win anywhere with the perfect circumstances, but that’s kind of a cop out answer. I’d say Dobbs makes the landscape much more difficult for the NJ GOP.

[Roll Roons]

https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2023/06/a-feeling-of-trump-2016-why-phil-murphy-and-democrats-have-anxiety-this-election-year-00101399

Phil Murphy says he has a "Trump 2016" feeling about state elections this year. Now, he could just be saying this to keep Democrats on their toes but Republicans outperforming expectations in New Jersey has happened several times in recent years so it could be something to keep an eye on.

[Senator Incitatus]

https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2023/06/a-feeling-of-trump-2016-why-phil-murphy-and-democrats-have-anxiety-this-election-year-00101399

Phil Murphy says he has a "Trump 2016" feeling about state elections this year. Now, he could just be saying this to keep Democrats on their toes but Republicans outperforming expectations in New Jersey has happened several times in recent years so it could be something to keep an eye on.

My current generous guess is they pick up three Senate seats (4, 11, 12) but it only takes two more moderate surprises (out of 14, 16, 38). Assembly is a shorter path but has the same tipping points. It's not totally crazy for Murphy to be on guard.

The national Republican Party is unpopular but the reasons why are complicated. Their real problem is that the state actually has a wide range of political diversity, so appeals have to be done on a by-district basis, and campaigning that way is prohibitively expensive in the state. 1991 is fading from memory, but they were able to win a wave because they had a unifying statewide issue which was both immediate and obvious (and local media hadn't been lobotomized yet).

[Vice President Christian Man]

All it would take is a Christie type candidate and this could be easier if Southern NJ trends Republican faster than Northern NJ trends Democrat.

[Senator Incitatus]

To return to the heart of the issue at hand, abortion as a vote-mover in the state is highly overrated; New Jersey is not pro-life by any means, but it is still a state with a significant number of Catholic swing voters and extremely liberal abortion laws which are not really under threat. (If anything, they're being further entrenched.) The median voter probably thinks New Jersey's abortion laws should be slightly more restrictive if informed and pressed on the issue, but it isn't high on the list of priorities for anyone but a fringe on either side. Unless a candidate makes a big deal about it, few voters look at the ballot with abortion on their mind.

New Jersey elections are divided along ethnic-racial lines, and the real question is whether Hispanic assimilation and realignment in the state outpace class realignment among whites. I have mixed views on this.

[Dead Parrot]

My current generous guess is they pick up three Senate seats (4, 11, 12)

Yeah, LD-12 is a virtual lock to flip, and imo LD-04 is somewhere between Toss-Up and Tilt R, but you really think Gopal will lose? He outran Murphy by 7 points in 2021, which would suggest that he has decent crossover appeal. LD-11 also got slightly more Dem-favorable in redistricting (it shed West Long Branch [Trump+20, Ciattarelli+31] and gained Fair Haven [Biden+19, Ciattarelli+5]), and the Republican candidate is some rando advertising exec who's getting badly outspent. I honestly think it's likelier that the Dems flip back the LD-11 Assembly seats (one or both of them would probably have held on in 2021 under the new lines) than it is that the GOP flips the Senate seat, which would require an even redder national environment than 2021.

[Senator Incitatus]

It was a generous prediction by design, but I’ll temper a few of your points:

• LD-11 is nothing like a safe seat in the present environment. (You didn’t say it was, but I want to reinforce that I’m more game-planning than predicting here.) It didn’t get particularly more Democratic; those are both incredibly small towns compared to the district anchors in Colts Neck, Freehold, and Ocean.
• Dnistrian is a heavily connected fundraiser who was the top recruit on a promise to self-fund, which is presumably why he isn’t spending yet. Gopal is outspending 3-1 but these are still low numbers; the anticipation is that Dnistrian will eventually pour in cash to make up the difference. I agree that doesn’t bode particularly well for the Assembly Republicans though, since the primary effect is to unify the Gopal ticket.
• Gopal drew a lot of grief recently for his bill to prevent Shaun Golden from serving as county sheriff and party chair simultaneously, which brought about a weird coalition of moderate opposition but aligned him with ultraconservative talk radio host and 2025 candidate Bill Spadea. He eventually had to withdraw the bill. I think this probably hurt his image as a non-controversial millennial and fueled backroom moves against him which are yet to play out.

[RidinWithBiden24]

Gut feeling says the more that Gen-Z shifts into the voting population, the more the Northeast as a whole becomes untouchable.

Political feeling says too early to really see.

[Mr.Phips]

https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2023/06/a-feeling-of-trump-2016-why-phil-murphy-and-democrats-have-anxiety-this-election-year-00101399

Phil Murphy says he has a "Trump 2016" feeling about state elections this year. Now, he could just be saying this to keep Democrats on their toes but Republicans outperforming expectations in New Jersey has happened several times in recent years so it could be something to keep an eye on.

My current generous guess is they pick up three Senate seats (4, 11, 12) but it only takes two more moderate surprises (out of 14, 16, 38). Assembly is a shorter path but has the same tipping points. It's not totally crazy for Murphy to be on guard.

The national Republican Party is unpopular but the reasons why are complicated. Their real problem is that the state actually has a wide range of political diversity, so appeals have to be done on a by-district basis, and campaigning that way is prohibitively expensive in the state. 1991 is fading from memory, but they were able to win a wave because they had a unifying statewide issue which was both immediate and obvious (and local media hadn't been lobotomized yet).

Republicans couldn’t even win SD-11 in 2021, which was a far better environment than 2023 likely will be for Republicans.  SD-14 wasn’t even close in 2021.  SD-38 wasn’t even that close.

[I’m not Stu]

No.

[Suburbia]

Murphy should alarm New Jerseyans about a potential 2024 NJGOP legislative takeover.

He should tout his achievements like ANCHOR program and talk about what the GOP would do if they got in.

A GOP legislature could override Murphy's vetoes like they did to Jim Florio in 1992-93.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It will make things harder perhaps but Murphy ran partly on abortion in 2021 and it didn't seem to move anyone towards him. Maybe it will be different now post-Dobbs? But what complicates this is that New Jersey remains a state where Republicans still do well in off-year elections and Democrats turn out in smaller numbers. With our gubernatorial elections always being in the off-year of off-years, the New Jersey GOP will probably always keep it at least within the single digits depending on who is in the White House and opinions of the past administration. Will Dobbs negate that? Do New Jersey voters buy that a New Jersey Republican candidate will act against reproductive rights in spite of Democrats having a consistent lock on the Assembly and Senate? I sure hope for the latter but I don't buy it as a given.

All I know is that I hope Dobbs does end up being the New Jersey GOP's deathknell, because I don't want my very ambitious current Mayor to run for Governor and win.

https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2023/06/a-feeling-of-trump-2016-why-phil-murphy-and-democrats-have-anxiety-this-election-year-00101399

Phil Murphy says he has a "Trump 2016" feeling about state elections this year. Now, he could just be saying this to keep Democrats on their toes but Republicans outperforming expectations in New Jersey has happened several times in recent years so it could be something to keep an eye on.

It's going to be 2019 all over again, more accurately, if you ask me.

[Suburbia]

It will make things harder perhaps but Murphy ran partly on abortion in 2021 and it didn't seem to move anyone towards him. Maybe it will be different now post-Dobbs? But what complicates this is that New Jersey remains a state where Republicans still do well in off-year elections and Democrats turn out in smaller numbers. With our gubernatorial elections always being in the off-year of off-years, the New Jersey GOP will probably always keep it at least within the single digits depending on who is in the White House and opinions of the past administration. Will Dobbs negate that? Do New Jersey voters buy that a New Jersey Republican candidate will act against reproductive rights in spite of Democrats having a consistent lock on the Assembly and Senate? I sure hope for the latter but I don't buy it as a given.

All I know is that I hope Dobbs does end up being the New Jersey GOP's deathknell, because I don't want my very ambitious current Mayor to run for Governor and win.

https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2023/06/a-feeling-of-trump-2016-why-phil-murphy-and-democrats-have-anxiety-this-election-year-00101399

Phil Murphy says he has a "Trump 2016" feeling about state elections this year. Now, he could just be saying this to keep Democrats on their toes but Republicans outperforming expectations in New Jersey has happened several times in recent years so it could be something to keep an eye on.

It's going to be 2019 all over again, more accurately, if you ask me.

With the NJGOP gains in South Jersey and the end of Norcross, the GOP could make gains in the Legislature that creates a single majority for Democrats. Dems would respond by making the '25 election about abortion. They are pro-life Republicans like Jay Webber in the Assembly if the GOP gains power. Dems would make abortion a big issue in NJ and a lot of women in NJ would probably prioritize that more than high property taxes or inflation/jobs.

[kwabbit]

It will make things harder perhaps but Murphy ran partly on abortion in 2021 and it didn't seem to move anyone towards him. Maybe it will be different now post-Dobbs? But what complicates this is that New Jersey remains a state where Republicans still do well in off-year elections and Democrats turn out in smaller numbers. With our gubernatorial elections always being in the off-year of off-years, the New Jersey GOP will probably always keep it at least within the single digits depending on who is in the White House and opinions of the past administration. Will Dobbs negate that? Do New Jersey voters buy that a New Jersey Republican candidate will act against reproductive rights in spite of Democrats having a consistent lock on the Assembly and Senate? I sure hope for the latter but I don't buy it as a given.

All I know is that I hope Dobbs does end up being the New Jersey GOP's deathknell, because I don't want my very ambitious current Mayor to run for Governor and win.

https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2023/06/a-feeling-of-trump-2016-why-phil-murphy-and-democrats-have-anxiety-this-election-year-00101399

Phil Murphy says he has a "Trump 2016" feeling about state elections this year. Now, he could just be saying this to keep Democrats on their toes but Republicans outperforming expectations in New Jersey has happened several times in recent years so it could be something to keep an eye on.

It's going to be 2019 all over again, more accurately, if you ask me.

With the NJGOP gains in South Jersey and the end of Norcross, the GOP could make gains in the Legislature that creates a single majority for Democrats. Dems would respond by making the '25 election about abortion. They are pro-life Republicans like Jay Webber in the Assembly if the GOP gains power. Dems would make abortion a big issue in NJ and a lot of women in NJ would probably prioritize that more than high property taxes or inflation/jobs.

South Jersey isn’t too populous, especially the parts where the GOP gains are coming from. The GOP needs to do well in North Jersey suburbia to get a majority. They might be making gains in the cities and in South Jersey, but they are not gaining ground in competitive areas nearly as much.

[Mr.Phips]

It will make things harder perhaps but Murphy ran partly on abortion in 2021 and it didn't seem to move anyone towards him. Maybe it will be different now post-Dobbs? But what complicates this is that New Jersey remains a state where Republicans still do well in off-year elections and Democrats turn out in smaller numbers. With our gubernatorial elections always being in the off-year of off-years, the New Jersey GOP will probably always keep it at least within the single digits depending on who is in the White House and opinions of the past administration. Will Dobbs negate that? Do New Jersey voters buy that a New Jersey Republican candidate will act against reproductive rights in spite of Democrats having a consistent lock on the Assembly and Senate? I sure hope for the latter but I don't buy it as a given.

All I know is that I hope Dobbs does end up being the New Jersey GOP's deathknell, because I don't want my very ambitious current Mayor to run for Governor and win.

https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2023/06/a-feeling-of-trump-2016-why-phil-murphy-and-democrats-have-anxiety-this-election-year-00101399

Phil Murphy says he has a "Trump 2016" feeling about state elections this year. Now, he could just be saying this to keep Democrats on their toes but Republicans outperforming expectations in New Jersey has happened several times in recent years so it could be something to keep an eye on.

It's going to be 2019 all over again, more accurately, if you ask me.

With the NJGOP gains in South Jersey and the end of Norcross, the GOP could make gains in the Legislature that creates a single majority for Democrats. Dems would respond by making the '25 election about abortion. They are pro-life Republicans like Jay Webber in the Assembly if the GOP gains power. Dems would make abortion a big issue in NJ and a lot of women in NJ would probably prioritize that more than high property taxes or inflation/jobs.

South Jersey isn’t too populous, especially the parts where the GOP gains are coming from. The GOP needs to do well in North Jersey suburbia to get a majority. They might be making gains in the cities and in South Jersey, but they are not gaining ground in competitive areas nearly as much.

There is literally one state senate seat and two assembly seats left that they could gain in south Jersey.

[kwabbit]

It will make things harder perhaps but Murphy ran partly on abortion in 2021 and it didn't seem to move anyone towards him. Maybe it will be different now post-Dobbs? But what complicates this is that New Jersey remains a state where Republicans still do well in off-year elections and Democrats turn out in smaller numbers. With our gubernatorial elections always being in the off-year of off-years, the New Jersey GOP will probably always keep it at least within the single digits depending on who is in the White House and opinions of the past administration. Will Dobbs negate that? Do New Jersey voters buy that a New Jersey Republican candidate will act against reproductive rights in spite of Democrats having a consistent lock on the Assembly and Senate? I sure hope for the latter but I don't buy it as a given.

All I know is that I hope Dobbs does end up being the New Jersey GOP's deathknell, because I don't want my very ambitious current Mayor to run for Governor and win.

https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2023/06/a-feeling-of-trump-2016-why-phil-murphy-and-democrats-have-anxiety-this-election-year-00101399

Phil Murphy says he has a "Trump 2016" feeling about state elections this year. Now, he could just be saying this to keep Democrats on their toes but Republicans outperforming expectations in New Jersey has happened several times in recent years so it could be something to keep an eye on.

It's going to be 2019 all over again, more accurately, if you ask me.

With the NJGOP gains in South Jersey and the end of Norcross, the GOP could make gains in the Legislature that creates a single majority for Democrats. Dems would respond by making the '25 election about abortion. They are pro-life Republicans like Jay Webber in the Assembly if the GOP gains power. Dems would make abortion a big issue in NJ and a lot of women in NJ would probably prioritize that more than high property taxes or inflation/jobs.

South Jersey isn’t too populous, especially the parts where the GOP gains are coming from. The GOP needs to do well in North Jersey suburbia to get a majority. They might be making gains in the cities and in South Jersey, but they are not gaining ground in competitive areas nearly as much.

There is literally one state senate seat and two assembly seats left that they could gain in south Jersey.

Yeah that’s what I mean. They are gonna lose those Biden +15 suburban seats soon and South Jersey doesn’t have much left in terms of pickups.

[NewYorkExpress]

If they can lure Van Drew or Kean into the race against Menendez, it's possible (maybe even likely with Kean), but any other statewide race is very unlikely at best for New Jersey Republicans.

[smoltchanov]

Not sure. They needed someone like Chris Brown, who was the most moderate republican in legislature recently, but it seems he retired from politics..

[SevenEleven]

LOL

[Mr. Matt]

If they can lure Van Drew or Kean into the race against Menendez, it's possible (maybe even likely with Kean), but any other statewide race is very unlikely at best for New Jersey Republicans.

(from NYT, 12/19/19)

Yeah, he's not winning statewide.