How big is the "blue wall"?

[°Leprechaun]

303?
more?
less?
 
Or will it be too close for a firewall?

maps welcomed

[Ferguson97]

Hillary's 2016 map, minus Nevada.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hillary's 2016 map, minus Nevada.

Lol have you learned your lesson Rs haven't won a VBM Eday since 202o NV is gonna go D, CCM WON,  it's gonna include NC this time we don't know about the rest if Brown wins in OH it will expand wave insurance doesn't mean 538 it just means more than 303

[MargieCat]

Biden's 2020 performance, minus maybe Wisconsin and Nevada.

Arizona and Georgia may or may not be part of it. It will depend on their results in 2024. Those states trended left very quickly and if they do so again, they are part of it. I don't foresee a rightward trend in those states.

[John Dule]

Biden's 2020 performance, minus maybe Wisconsin and Nevada.

Arizona and Georgia may or may not be part of it. It will depend on their results in 2024. Those states trended left very quickly and if they do so again, they are part of it. I don't foresee a rightward trend in those states.

I don't think a state that Biden won by only 10,000 votes can be put anywhere near the "wall" category, trends or no trends.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Biden's 2020 performance, minus maybe Wisconsin and Nevada.

Arizona and Georgia may or may not be part of it. It will depend on their results in 2024. Those states trended left very quickly and if they do so again, they are part of it. I don't foresee a rightward trend in those states.

Georgia was trending R in 1972 when Nixon won it by 50 points. How'd that work out for Ford in 1976?

[MargieCat]

Biden's 2020 performance, minus maybe Wisconsin and Nevada.

Arizona and Georgia may or may not be part of it. It will depend on their results in 2024. Those states trended left very quickly and if they do so again, they are part of it. I don't foresee a rightward trend in those states.

I don't think a state that Biden won by only 10,000 votes can be put anywhere near the "wall" category, trends or no trends.

That's why I said it will take a cycle or so to know for sure.

As others have said on here, Georgia is similar to Illinois in that it's population is primarily in it's large city. Others have compared it to Virginia. Both of which are blue wall states. The rural areas are shrinking as the city and suburbs grow. Fundamentally, it has the ingredients of a blue state.

The same can be said about Arizona. I like to compare it to the former swing state of Colorado. Arizona has a smaller rural population than other red states, with fast left-trending Maricopa County suburbs.

[MargieCat]

Biden's 2020 performance, minus maybe Wisconsin and Nevada.

Arizona and Georgia may or may not be part of it. It will depend on their results in 2024. Those states trended left very quickly and if they do so again, they are part of it. I don't foresee a rightward trend in those states.

Georgia was trending R in 1972 when Nixon won it by 50 points. How'd that work out for Ford in 1976?

Different era. Different electorate. Different polarization.

Plus Jimmy Carter was the governor.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

303 blue wall

[°Leprechaun]

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=550438.0

This my map btw

[MATTROSE94]

It depends on who Donald Trump picks as his running mate, as a Trump/Haley or Trump/Scott ticket will be a lot stronger than a Trump/Lake or Trump/Gabbard ticket.

[SInNYC]

There is no blue wall, just a blue curtain. And the curtain is Biden 2020 less GA/NV/AZ.

[Ferguson97]

There is no blue wall, just a blue curtain.

Distinction without a difference

[S019]

Clinton 2016 minus ME, NH, NV, and MN. The remaining states are states that will almost certainly be Democratic.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What 24 tells us Biden is leading not by 5 but 16 in VA and Trump not DeSantis will be nominee

we gotten 62/60 M in 2022 and 80/70 M in 2020 we lost 8 H seats in 20 and we are expecting to gain seats in 24

Biden 305 v Trump/DeSantis 112 and outstanding 121
Its VBM not same day urban votes and suburban votes come in last than rural votes thats why Beshear won by 39 K last time

its 15 percent blk and 15 Latino or Arab in all the green or blue states

[Tekken_Guy]

Hillary's 2016 map, minus Nevada.

And the Red Wall would be Trump 2020 minus NC, I assume?

[DS0816]

Re: How big is the "blue wall"?

Bellwether big.

• Pennsylvania
• Michigan
• Wisconsin

The path to the White House runs through these three states.

[emailking]

300 miles long, 700 feet high, and 300 feet wide

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Users are such in Denial about Trump prospects they really think it's not gonna be a landslide and Biden isn't leading by 5 in VA but 16,  with just a 3o3 map with Trump facing Indictment lol TX, MO, OH and MT are at stake and 5)17 H seats for Rs are at stake, Trump is going to jail

Rick Scott says Rs have good Prez candidate rehash from 2016 we have good CONGRESS candidates

I am sure Wesley Bell and Colin ALLRED are gonna win with Rochester, Alsobrooks as Senators

That's 4 blk Senators added to Booker, and Warnock equalling  6 blk S with 2 blk female Senators and 4 blk men, Kunce was the candidate to beat before Bell got in

[Ferguson97]

Hillary's 2016 map, minus Nevada.

And the Red Wall would be Trump 2020 minus NC, I assume?

Minus NC and TX.

I'm defining "wall" as "states that will always vote for the same party, even in a landslide".

[MargieCat]

Hillary's 2016 map, minus Nevada.

And the Red Wall would be Trump 2020 minus NC, I assume?

Minus NC and TX.

I'm defining "wall" as "states that will always vote for the same party, even in a landslide".

Texas hasn't voted for a Democrat since 1994 (LG Bullock) and for president since 1976 (Carter), but recent trends make the state no longer part of the red wall.

Consequently, Florida voted to the left of Texas by over 2 points in 2020. But due to trends, it's seems that they are joining the red wall.

I think it's probably safe to say that Iowa and Ohio are part of the red wall at this point.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hillary's 2016 map, minus Nevada.

And the Red Wall would be Trump 2020 minus NC, I assume?

Minus NC and TX.

I'm defining "wall" as "states that will always vote for the same party, even in a landslide".

Texas hasn't voted for a Democrat since 1994 (LG Bullock) and for president since 1976 (Carter), but recent trends make the state no longer part of the red wall.

Consequently, Florida voted to the left of Texas by over 2 points in 2020. But due to trends, it's seems that they are joining the red wall.

I think it's probably safe to say that Iowa and Ohio are part of the red wall at this point.

,

Yeah there are Mafia ties in FL that's why FL is more right wing than TX the Italian Mafia is in South FL Miami Sicilian with Cuban Latinos and there is a Cuban Embargo on FL

[Ragnaroni]

Biden's 2020 performance, minus maybe Wisconsin and Nevada.

Arizona and Georgia may or may not be part of it. It will depend on their results in 2024. Those states trended left very quickly and if they do so again, they are part of it. I don't foresee a rightward trend in those states.

Georgia was trending R in 1972 when Nixon won it by 50 points. How'd that work out for Ford in 1976?

To add here, it went every county for Nixon to every county for Carter.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Clinton 2016 - NV(Tilt D) MN(Lean D) VA(Likely D) NM(Likely D)

[WalterWhite]

At this point, the "blue wall" is probably:

Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Illinois, Virginia, D.C., Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, and Maine's 1st District.

NEVADA, MINNESOTA, AND MAINE ARE NOT SAFE BLUE STATES!