2025 NYC Mayor poll: Adams leads in primary and GE

[Sir Mohamed]

It's very early, but leaving this here for the record. There's not a subboard yet for 2025 polls.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1664719851129110528

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1664720153475530753

[Horus]

I don't particularly like the guy but it's clear New Yorkers do. I think a presidential run in 28 is quite likely.

[NewYorkExpress]

Adams definitely could lose the Democratic Primary if any Democrat in the Congressional Delegation (even AOC) decided to challenge him.

Someone like Grace Meng or Dan Goldman would win easily, and I think Adriano Espaillat would also win a head-to-head primary against Adams. (In fact the only Democrat in the City's delegation who wouldn't win is Hakeem Jeffries, largely because I doubt he'd run as the sitting House Minority Leader.)

[Senator Incitatus]

I like Adams and doubt I would find a preferable alternative who could get elected.

[I’m not Stu]

A Republican can't win NYC anymore.

[Suburbia]

A Republican can't win NYC anymore.

This. The Giuliani Bloomberg Era is over, even if crime rises,  Adams or Garcia type wins.

[PSOL]

Way too early even though I agree that Adams has this mayoral position for as long as he wants it.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Adams is widely seen as an improvement over De Blasio, which is going to go a long way to cover up for a lot of his...eccentricities.

[Reactionary Libertarian]

Adams is not losing the primary. He has the black vote locked up.

[pikachu]

I don't particularly like the guy but it's clear New Yorkers do. I think a presidential run in 28 is quite likely.

He’s actually not very popular at all, and the 2021 primary and GE shows he’s deeply overrated electorally. He’s vulnerable in 2025 if the right candidate shows up.

[AelroseB]

Deeply unpopular among Democrats and Republicans.  A Democratic challenger who could unite ethnic voting blocks--Hasidim and Asians, especially--alongside Manhattan, Williamsburg, and Long Island City/Astoria Whites would trounce Adams in a primary.  The question is--who could that candidate be, if anyone?  I would be most curious to see an AOC run, but someone like Nadler might better fit the bill.  I doubt either would like to leave their congressional run in favor of the mayorship, however.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I find it interesting how the poll shows Adams' favorables pretty solid with conservatives and liberals but very divided amongst moderates

[NewYorkExpress]

Deeply unpopular among Democrats and Republicans.  A Democratic challenger who could unite ethnic voting blocks--Hasidim and Asians, especially--alongside Manhattan, Williamsburg, and Long Island City/Astoria Whites would trounce Adams in a primary.  The question is--who could that candidate be, if anyone?  I would be most curious to see an AOC run, but someone like Nadler might better fit the bill.  I doubt either would like to leave their congressional run in favor of the mayorship, however.

Hasidm are almost certainly going to vote for the Republican barring something odd happening (like bribery).

[Alben Barkley]

Adams definitely could lose the Democratic Primary if any Democrat in the Congressional Delegation (even AOC) decided to challenge him.

Someone like Grace Meng or Dan Goldman would win easily, and I think Adriano Espaillat would also win a head-to-head primary against Adams. (In fact the only Democrat in the City's delegation who wouldn't win is Hakeem Jeffries, largely because I doubt he'd run as the sitting House Minority Leader.)

I'm not convinced any of them would beat Adams, and AOC would be crushed.

[Хahar 🤔]

Deeply unpopular among Democrats and Republicans.  A Democratic challenger who could unite ethnic voting blocks--Hasidim and Asians, especially--alongside Manhattan, Williamsburg, and Long Island City/Astoria Whites would trounce Adams in a primary.  The question is--who could that candidate be, if anyone?  I would be most curious to see an AOC run, but someone like Nadler might better fit the bill.  I doubt either would like to leave their congressional run in favor of the mayorship, however.

Hasidm are almost certainly going to vote for the Republican barring something odd happening (like bribery).

Bribery wouldn't be something odd. It's how Hasidic politics works.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Hasids are overwhelmingly registered Democrats so even if they vote Republican in the general election they'll still be able to vote in the only election that matters.

[CelestialAlchemy]

NYC seems to like incumbents in the mayoral office, even if they're personally unpopular? So I think Adams is safe.

[warandwar]

NYC seems to like incumbents in the mayoral office, even if they're personally unpopular? So I think Adams is safe.

If there's a defining trait about NYC mayors, it's that they're never popular. It isn't about what the residents think, it is more that there is such a high opportunity cost for going up against a mayor that most would rather sit on the bleachers until the mayor refuses to run again.

[SWE]

A Republican can't win NYC anymore.

This poll shows one leading by a wide margin

[Lief 🗽]

RIP New York City, rewarding this clown with another term will be a disaster.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I wonder how Bragg would do against him

[Torie]

It would take a juicy scandal to bring the mayor down I suspect. My impression is that he is mediocre, and sometimes the devil you know is better than someone new. Adams seems to have a pretty solid hold on his black base.

[Oryxslayer]

NYC seems to like incumbents in the mayoral office, even if they're personally unpopular? So I think Adams is safe.

If there's a defining trait about NYC mayors, it's that they're never popular. It isn't about what the residents think, it is more that there is such a high opportunity cost for going up against a mayor that most would rather sit on the bleachers until the mayor refuses to run again.

This. Which is why the person who is seemingly right now making the most noise about potentially challenging Adams is Yuh-Line Niou: someone out of office but still with significant credibility among certain constituencies.

[coloradocowboi]

It would take a juicy scandal to bring the mayor down I suspect. My impression is that he is mediocre, and sometimes the devil you know is better than someone new. Adams seems to have a pretty solid hold on his black base.

Isn’t a bribery scandal unfolding rn?

[Zedonathin2020]

Save them, Yuh-Line Niou! Save them!!!