KY - Cygnal: Tie
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  KY - Cygnal: Tie
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Author Topic: KY - Cygnal: Tie  (Read 1443 times)
Gracile
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Junior Chimp
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« on: June 01, 2023, 05:56:03 PM »

https://www.cygn.al/poll-kentucky-governor-and-ag-dead-heat-biden-deeply-underwater/

Andy Beshear (D-inc) 47%
Daniel Cameron (R) 47%

Favorabilities:
Beshear - 55/41
Cameron - 46/37

600 likely voters, 3.92%
5/22-5/23
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Duke of York
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« Reply #1 on: June 01, 2023, 06:10:59 PM »

If Beshear loses it will prove approval ratings really don't mean anything.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #2 on: June 01, 2023, 06:24:36 PM »

If Beshear loses it will prove approval ratings really don't mean anything.

Not necessarily.  It could be close, and if LA/MS are blowouts, even more proof that Beshear couldn't win.

And Cameron doesn't seem that awful.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: June 02, 2023, 08:28:20 AM »

New Poll: Kentucky Governor by Cygnal on 2023-05-23

Summary: D: 47%, R: 47%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #4 on: June 02, 2023, 09:44:44 AM »

If Beshear loses it will prove approval ratings really don't mean anything.

Not necessarily.  It could be close, and if LA/MS are blowouts, even more proof that Beshear couldn't win.

And Cameron doesn't seem that awful.

Yup. The race will be within 5 pts. no matter what, so it could go either way. Even Beshear loses, he will do A LOT better than "generic D" or any D-candidate at the prez or senate level.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: June 02, 2023, 10:21:36 AM »

If Beshear loses it will prove approval ratings really don't mean anything.

Not necessarily.  It could be close, and if LA/MS are blowouts, even more proof that Beshear couldn't win.

And Cameron doesn't seem that awful.

Yup. The race will be within 5 pts. no matter what, so it could go either way. Even Beshear loses, he will do A LOT better than "generic D" or any D-candidate at the prez or senate level.

Beshear won't lose he won last time on Provisions ballots and it's VBM that's why Presley can win VBM and LA G is gonna go to runoff Landry is at 34 not 60 to avoid a Dec Runoff

Have faith in VBM that's why we won WI, PA and FL VBM not sane day

That's why OH is D lean with Brown VBM Rs haven't figured out a way to defeat Brown or tester yet

Eday is still 5 MNTHS off and 24 is 18 MNTHS off
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Vosem
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« Reply #6 on: June 02, 2023, 11:41:24 AM »

On the one hand, this is a good poll for Beshear; it's a Republican-affiliated pollster and has had a Republican house effect in the past, so a tie in this poll might mean that he's leading at the moment.

On the other hand, it's a pretty bad one: when you go into the details it looks like a way more Democratic electorate than you'd expect from Kentucky (recalled vote is Trump+16, rather than the reality of Trump+26; you'd expect a little less than the real margin, because some people will always mistakenly believe that they voted for the winner, but 10 points is a lot); if there's a Trump+16 electorate then Beshear should be doing much better than a tie.

Pick your narrative.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #7 on: June 02, 2023, 12:47:14 PM »

On the one hand, this is a good poll for Beshear; it's a Republican-affiliated pollster and has had a Republican house effect in the past, so a tie in this poll might mean that he's leading at the moment.

On the other hand, it's a pretty bad one: when you go into the details it looks like a way more Democratic electorate than you'd expect from Kentucky (recalled vote is Trump+16, rather than the reality of Trump+26; you'd expect a little less than the real margin, because some people will always mistakenly believe that they voted for the winner, but 10 points is a lot); if there's a Trump+16 electorate then Beshear should be doing much better than a tie.

Pick your narrative.

Do you how much Beshear won by last time 39 K votes it will be close again
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Unelectable Bystander
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« Reply #8 on: June 02, 2023, 12:55:20 PM »

On the one hand, this is a good poll for Beshear; it's a Republican-affiliated pollster and has had a Republican house effect in the past, so a tie in this poll might mean that he's leading at the moment.

On the other hand, it's a pretty bad one: when you go into the details it looks like a way more Democratic electorate than you'd expect from Kentucky (recalled vote is Trump+16, rather than the reality of Trump+26; you'd expect a little less than the real margin, because some people will always mistakenly believe that they voted for the winner, but 10 points is a lot); if there's a Trump+16 electorate then Beshear should be doing much better than a tie.

Pick your narrative.

If you compare exit polls between 2019 and 2020, the electorate party identification goes from R +5 to R +16, so that presidential recalled vote tracks assuming an electorate like 2019. It just goes to show how much off year elections hurt republicans in states where highly engaged voters are to the left of the state.
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henster
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« Reply #9 on: June 02, 2023, 09:33:13 PM »

I wonder if JBE would've won in 2019 if Jeff Landry or John Kenendy had been the nominee instead of Rispone. JBE benefited from high JA and a weak opponent. Cameron is about as best as a nominee GOP could ask for in KY and Beshear is pretty much relying on his high job approvals. Just how close JBE win was in '19 against Rispone makes me think this race is a tossup.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: June 03, 2023, 06:19:39 AM »

It's 5 MNTHS til Edays for Presley, Beshear and Wilson Beshesr won by 39K votes last time just be patient and wait for Eday these are R 22 states the Rs should be wiping the floor with Ds like WV and they arent
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #11 on: June 03, 2023, 01:02:27 PM »

Here we go again…

Reminder that some polls in 2019 had Beshear down high single digits, some polls last year had Whitmer losing to TUDOR DIXON. It was inevitable at least some polls would show this race close, and it is indeed very likely to BE close. Absurd overreactions to any single poll are completely uncalled for.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #12 on: June 03, 2023, 01:05:47 PM »

If Beshear loses it will prove approval ratings really don't mean anything.

Not necessarily.  It could be close, and if LA/MS are blowouts, even more proof that Beshear couldn't win.

And Cameron doesn't seem that awful.

Yup. The race will be within 5 pts. no matter what, so it could go either way. Even Beshear loses, he will do A LOT better than "generic D" or any D-candidate at the prez or senate level.

What we have here in KY is a state with an obviously very strong R partisan lean but is still “elastic” enough at the state level for this lean to be overcome dramatically based on candidate quality. That’s how an absurdly unpopular R governor, Bevin, was defeated in the first place. It could be how a very popular D governor, Beshear, holds on. But BOTH by very narrow margins, that much is for certain. These races are like an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #13 on: June 18, 2023, 08:43:07 PM »

Well, it's better than seeing Cameron leading at all.

I still think Beshear wins by one or two points. Nobody should have ever been expecting a substantial win no matter how popular Beshear ostensibly is.

I guess one thing that would benefit him, and I don't mean to come across as cynical, is another natural disaster in the weeks preceding the November election. Last year's tornadoes and how he addressed them seemed to do a lot for his approval ratings.
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