As of June 2023, what are your current Senate ratings?

[Zedonathin2020]

I'll start.



Safe R:
Indiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska (Regular and Special), North Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming

Likely R:
Florida

Lean R:
Texas

Tilt R:
Montana

Tilt D:
Ohio

Lean D:
Arizona and Wisconsin

Likely D:
Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania

Safe D:
California (Porter v. Schiff runoff), Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine (Independent), Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont (Independent), Washington



Overall, as of today we are faced with a 51–49 Republican Senate.

[Tekken_Guy]

Safe D: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington
Likely D: Pennsylvania
Lean D: Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin
Tilt D: Arizona
Tilt R: Montana, Ohio
Lean R: Texas
Likely R: Florida, West Virginia
Safe R: Indiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska-R, Nebraska-S, North Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Wyoming

[President Johnson]

Safe D: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington
Likely D: Pennsylvania
Lean D: Michigan, Wisconsin
Tilt D: Arizona, Wisconsin, Ohio, Montana
Tilt R: Montana, Ohio
Lean R: Texas
Likely R: N/A
Safe R: Florida, West Virginia, Indiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska-R, Nebraska-S, North Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Wyoming

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

I don't use Safe this early in the cycle because Roy Moore happened. I'll split my tossups into tilts later in the cycle.

Solid D
Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington
Extremely Likely D
California (only because of extremely slim possibility of a Dem lockout), Maine, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Virginia

Likely D
Pennsylvania
Lean D
Michigan, Wisconsin

Tossup Arizona, Montana, Nevada, Ohio (close to moving this one to Lean R)

Lean R
N/A
Likely R
West Virginia (flip), Texas
Extremely Likely R
Florida,  Missouri, Utah (would have to be a IND)
Solid R
Mississippi, Nebraska, Nebraska*,North Dakota, Tennessee, Wyoming

So that leaves me with 50 GOP, 46 Dem, and 4 Tossups

[S019]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Brown is tossup and Tester is Lean D and TX, MO and FL are gonna be competitive Lean R WV

[Ferguson97]

Likely R: West Virginia

Lean R: Ohio

Tilt R: Texas

Tossup: Arizona, Montana

Lean D: Nevada, Wisconsin

Likely D: Michigan, Pennsylvania

Everything else is Safe D or Safe R

[Thank you for being a friend...]

Safe R: WV
Likely R: TX
Leans R: OH
Tossup: MT
Leans D: NV, MI, WI, AZ
Likely D: PA

Republicans get the majority in 2025, 51-49 or 52-48.

I think WV's gone, Sherrod Brown in Ohio is likely to lose, Jon Tester may be able to barely win.  The Leans D state that I think will be closest is NV.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is leading Trump and DeSantis 48/41 that's enough to win a blue wave and a Filibuster proof S



TN goes D with Gloria Johnson

Brown will win😆😆😆😆 can't wait til see the blue avatars cringe when Brown wins again

[NewYorkExpress]

Safe R:

West Virginia (FLIP), Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, Nebraska-Special, North Dakota, Tennessee, Wyoming, Utah.

Safe D: California, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, New York, Rhode Island.

Safe Independent: Vermont, Maine

Likely R: Montana (FLIP), Florida, Indiana

Likely D: Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, New Mexico, New Jersey, Minnesota

Lean R: Ohio (FLIP)

Lean D: Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada

Tilt R: N/A

Tilt D: Texas (FLIP)

[Hope For A New Era]

[Roll Roons]

Likely D: NJ, PA
Lean D: MI, NV, WI
Tossup: AZ, MT, OH
Lean R: TX
Likely R: FL, WV

Everything else is safe for the incumbent party.

[Xing]

Safe R: WV
Likely R: N/A
Lean R: MT, OH, TX
Toss-Up: AZ
Lean D: MI, NV, WI
Likely D: NM, PA

Everything else is safe for the incumbent party.

[patzer]

Safe R: WV
Likely R: OH, MT
Lean R: FL, TX
Tossup/tilt D: AZ
Lean D: PA, MI, WI
Likely D: NM

all others safe for incumbent party

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If we win OH we will win the S because both Tester and Brown have been reelected in 2006/2012/2018 and we can win wave insurance states but blue waves don't happen until 19 days out the only one is DOA is Manchin

[bagelman]

https://www.270towin.com/2024-senate-election/qKRPzy

TX is in contention because Cruz is awful. AZ is in contention because the AZ GOP is awful, and also awful at nominating candidates that appeal to moderates.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.270towin.com/2024-senate-election/qKRPzy

TX is in contention because Cruz is awful. AZ is in contention because the AZ GOP is awful, and also awful at nominating candidates that appeal to moderates.

You really believee that Brown and Tester are gonna lose before Cruz lol and Hawley is vulnerable this is a map 18 MNTHS before Eday and there is no OH and MO Polls





52/48 S  this is the right map

[Sir Mohamed]

Safe R: WV
Likely R: N/A
Lean R: TX
Toss-Up: AZ, OH, MT
Lean D: MI, NV, WI
Likely D: NM, PA

Everything else is safe for the incumbent party.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R: WV
Likely R: N/A
Lean R: TX
Toss-Up: AZ, OH, MT
Lean D: MI, NV, WI
Likely D: NM, PA

Everything else is safe for the incumbent party.

Allred, Brown instead of Manchin and Tester can very well be in S but Hawley and Tester are wildcard and the reason why Brown has a better chance than Ryan is only because DeWine isn't on the ballot Vance won by 5 and DeWine won by 25 users act like Vance won by 25 pts and Johnson also built up a lead on Barnes only after IAN, Beasley, Ryan and Barnes I'm the Database were winning pre IAN

It's still 18 MNTHS out and the R field of Prez candidate are so bad 😞😞😞

[Reactionary Libertarian]

Safe R: WV
Likely R: OH
Lean R: TX, FL
Tossup: MT
Tilt D: AZ, NV, WI
Lean D: MI
Likely D: PA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It really doesn't matter at this pt of Brown wins we win the S and if he loses we lose the S the only Seat that Rs have is WV they don't have MT and OH yet

[ProgressiveModerate]

Generally went on the side of caution since we're so far out - there are a bunch of states that will probably be moved up a category as the election nears assuming no abnormal circumstances arise.

UT is likely if you have some situation where it's a 3 way race between Romney, a Trumpy, and a Dem, or a two way race between Romney (I) and a Trumpy (R). I could even see a scenario where a Trumpy (R) is held to single digits by a competent (D); rmbr in 2022 Mike Lee "only" won by 10.

FL only being lean R might be controversial, but again I want to see who the D is, what polling says, and how seriously both sides are spending before I consider moving it to likely R. Scott is not particularly popular, and Florida was still "only" Trump + 3 in 2020. To what degree FL-2022 was a truly a fluke or indicative of longer-term shifts is yet to be seen.

[BigZuck08]

Safe D: MA, RI, CT, DE, MD, MN, NM, CA, WA, HI
Likely D: NY (will move up to safe if Zeldin doesn't run), PA, NJ (may move up to safe depending on how competent the R nominee is), VA (may move down to Lean depending on how competent the R nominee is), WI, AZ (flip)
Lean D: MI, NV (may move NV into Lean R if Brown proves that he can overcome Marchant AND that he is a competent candidate)
Lean R: MT (flip), OH (flip)
Likely R: FL, TX (may move TX and FL down to Lean depending on how competent Allred/whoever the Dem candidate is in FL is)
Safe R: WV (flip), IN, TN, MS, MO, NE, NE-S, ND, WY, UT
Safe I: VT, ME

Overall forecast:
52 Republicans
48 Democrats (including 2 Independents that caucus with Democrats)

Note: The ratings here are based off of margin, not probability. This explains why NY and NJ aren't in Safe D.

Safe: over 10 points
Likely: 5-10 points
Lean: 1-5 points
Tilt: <1 point (not used as of now)

Please also note that these ratings are prone to change at any time.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Generally went on the side of caution since we're so far out - there are a bunch of states that will probably be moved up a category as the election nears assuming no abnormal circumstances arise.

UT is likely if you have some situation where it's a 3 way race between Romney, a Trumpy, and a Dem, or a two way race between Romney (I) and a Trumpy (R). I could even see a scenario where a Trumpy (R) is held to single digits by a competent (D); rmbr in 2022 Mike Lee "only" won by 10.

FL only being lean R might be controversial, but again I want to see who the D is, what polling says, and how seriously both sides are spending before I consider moving it to likely R. Scott is not particularly popular, and Florida was still "only" Trump + 3 in 2020. To what degree FL-2022 was a truly a fluke or indicative of longer-term shifts is yet to be seen.

Rs aren't at 51 Seats with Brown

[ProgressiveModerate]

Safe D: MA, RI, CT, DE, MD, MN, NM, CA, WA, HI
Likely D: NY (will move up to safe if Zeldin doesn't run), PA, NJ (may move up to safe depending on how competent the R nominee is), VA (may move down to Lean depending on how competent the R nominee is), WI, AZ (flip)
Lean D: MI, NV (may move NV into Lean R if Brown proves that he can overcome Marchant AND that he is a competent candidate)
Lean R: MT (flip), OH (flip)
Likely R: FL, TX (may move TX and FL down to Lean depending on how competent Allred/whoever the Dem candidate is in FL is)
Safe R: WV (flip), IN, TN, MS, MO, NE, NE-S, ND, WY, UT
Safe I: VT, ME

Overall forecast:
52 Republicans
48 Democrats (including 2 Independents that caucus with Democrats)

Note: The ratings here are based off of margin, not probability. This explains why NY and NJ aren't in Safe D.

Safe: over 10 points
Likely: 5-10 points
Lean: 1-5 points
Tilt: <1 point (not used as of now)

Please also note that these ratings are prone to change at any time.

Mostly agree with your ratings; prolly bump down TX to at least Lean R, but I think your qualification is fair. Same with AZ; a bit too confident imo given the weird dynamics, though I could see it end up as Gallego + 6 or smtg.

However, I will say as a NYer and one who predicted Hochul's close call months before anyone was talking about it, there's no way the Senate Race ends up within 10 points with Gillibrand unless she has some real dark skeleton, even with Zeldin, unless she has some real dark skeleton in her closet.

There were circumstances that caused the 2022 Gov race to be close that just won't be there in a Pres year. Firstly, black and hispanic turnout should be much better across the board. Secondly, I think the crime narrative has been somewhat overbeat at this point to the point where people have become numb to it; it works for a cycle but the GOP needs to find something else to run on. Finally, many folks felt more comfortable crossing over to vote R on the State level but not on the federal level; this can be seen by Schumer winning by 14%. Finally, a lot of 2022 result was a genuinely dislike/distrust of Hochul.

Still think NY is one of the states Biden has most potential to have the worst performance in relative to his 2020 performance. No way it's within single digits barring very extreme and unforeseen circumstances that'd likely involve a very red national picture.