Which American candidate would EU countries have voted for in 2020?

[Death of a Salesman]

Assuming some EU-wide election for the two candidates, and neglecting foreign policy, which countries would Trump have carried?

My guess is the widespread social conservatism of the post-Soviet states (same-sex marriage has majority disapproval in every one as of 2020) would cause Trump to sweep them. He would probably carry Italy and Greece, and he could plausibly win or come close in France, Austria, and Finland. Being very generous, Trump could maybe carry Portugal and Spain. Biden would have easily won Ireland, the Low Countries, Germany, and Sweden+Denmark. Across the whole EU, the margin would probably be fairly close to even.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Well, I can say that Trump would win Eastern Ukraine and Biden would win Western Ukraine...

[It’s so Joever]

If they could just vote in 2020 but everything else was the same?

Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Serbia, Montenegro, Bulgaria, Romani, Moldova, Ukraine, and Russia. Trump wouldn’t stand a chance in any of Western Europe, but he would probably get closest in Italy (but NOT Spain or Portugal LMAO)

Ukraine would be interesting in it probably very narrowly votes Trump in 2020 once you account for the occupied parts, but in 2024 it would swing at least 10-15 points to the left for obvious reasons. Probably more.

Oh wait EU, well same idea lol.

[CumbrianLefty]

Assuming some EU-wide election for the two candidates, and neglecting foreign policy, which countries would Trump have carried?

My guess is the widespread social conservatism of the post-Soviet states (same-sex marriage has majority disapproval in every one as of 2020) would cause Trump to sweep them. He would probably carry Italy and Greece, and he could plausibly win or come close in France, Austria, and Finland. Being very generous, Trump could maybe carry Portugal and Spain. Biden would have easily won Ireland, the Low Countries, Germany, and Sweden+Denmark. Across the whole EU, the margin would probably be fairly close to even.

This overall overstates Trump's likely support, but in W Europe especially.

(where he probably wouldn't carry any country at all)

[Isaak]

He would probably carry Italy and Greece, and he could plausibly win or come close in France, Austria, and Finland. Being very generous, Trump could maybe carry Portugal and Spain.

This is much of an exaggeration. I don't think Trump would have come close to winning one of those.

Perhaps Hungary and Poland (and Slovenia because of Melania). And even in these cases, I would have my doubts.

[Coldstream]

Eastern Europe is nowhere near as socially conservative as some seem to think it is, and even if it were they’d never vote for a Russian stooge - he’d be lucky to get any more than Hungary. Western Europe would be a complete non-starter.

[Death of a Salesman]

Eastern Europe is nowhere near as socially conservative as some seem to think it is, and even if it were they’d never vote for a Russian stooge - he’d be lucky to get any more than Hungary. Western Europe would be a complete non-starter.

https://commission.europa.eu/system/files/2019-10/ebs_493_data_fact_lgbti_eu_en-1.pdf
That's just plainly wrong. There was majority opposition to same sex marriage in every post-Soviet state except Czechia, where opinions were tied. The only American state which voted for Biden and where same sex marriage had plurality opposition was Georgia, which was exceptionally close. As I mentioned in the prompt, this is not taking into account foreign policy views. The question is about domestic policies.

 

Assuming some EU-wide election for the two candidates, and neglecting foreign policy, which countries would Trump have carried?

 

[Death of a Salesman]

He would probably carry Italy and Greece, and he could plausibly win or come close in France, Austria, and Finland. Being very generous, Trump could maybe carry Portugal and Spain.

This is much of an exaggeration. I don't think Trump would have come close to winning one of those.

Perhaps Hungary and Poland (and Slovenia because of Melania). And even in these cases, I would have my doubts.

Current French Polls: 30% Le Pen, 7% Zemmour, 5% Wauquiez, 2% Dupont-Aignan. This is reasonably close.

Current Austrian Polls: 26% FPO, 22% OVP. Again, quite close.

2023 Finnish Election: 20.8% National Coalition, 20.1% Finns, 4.2% Christian Democrats.

How many EPP voters would really be voting for Biden in these countries?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

He would probably carry Italy and Greece, and he could plausibly win or come close in France, Austria, and Finland. Being very generous, Trump could maybe carry Portugal and Spain.

This is much of an exaggeration. I don't think Trump would have come close to winning one of those.

Perhaps Hungary and Poland (and Slovenia because of Melania). And even in these cases, I would have my doubts.

Current French Polls: 30% Le Pen, 7% Zemmour, 5% Wauquiez, 2% Dupont-Aignan. This is reasonably close.

Current Austrian Polls: 26% FPO, 22% OVP. Again, quite close.

2023 Finnish Election: 20.8% National Coalition, 20.1% Finns, 4.2% Christian Democrats.

How many EPP voters would really be voting for Biden in these countries?

A substantial minority of them - probably enough - as Biden would be positioned to dismantle the social safety nets slower than Trump (but still faster than these parties, in many respects).

[Oppo]

He would probably carry Italy and Greece, and he could plausibly win or come close in France, Austria, and Finland. Being very generous, Trump could maybe carry Portugal and Spain.

This is much of an exaggeration. I don't think Trump would have come close to winning one of those.

Perhaps Hungary and Poland (and Slovenia because of Melania). And even in these cases, I would have my doubts.

Current French Polls: 30% Le Pen, 7% Zemmour, 5% Wauquiez, 2% Dupont-Aignan. This is reasonably close.

Current Austrian Polls: 26% FPO, 22% OVP. Again, quite close.

2023 Finnish Election: 20.8% National Coalition, 20.1% Finns, 4.2% Christian Democrats.

How many EPP voters would really be voting for Biden in these countries?

Forza Italia voters were evenly split between Trump and Biden
https://twitter.com/mill226/status/1644587736597434369?s=46

[Death of a Salesman]

He would probably carry Italy and Greece, and he could plausibly win or come close in France, Austria, and Finland. Being very generous, Trump could maybe carry Portugal and Spain.

This is much of an exaggeration. I don't think Trump would have come close to winning one of those.

Perhaps Hungary and Poland (and Slovenia because of Melania). And even in these cases, I would have my doubts.

Current French Polls: 30% Le Pen, 7% Zemmour, 5% Wauquiez, 2% Dupont-Aignan. This is reasonably close.

Current Austrian Polls: 26% FPO, 22% OVP. Again, quite close.

2023 Finnish Election: 20.8% National Coalition, 20.1% Finns, 4.2% Christian Democrats.

How many EPP voters would really be voting for Biden in these countries?

Forza Italia voters were evenly split between Trump and Biden
https://twitter.com/mill226/status/1644587736597434369?s=46

The poll being 53 Biden - 47 Trump is a bit better for Biden than I think he would actually do, but that seems plausible enough. Italy is probably the most conservative Western European state.

[Red Velvet]

Poland and Hungary are the obvious ones, but I think Italy would be in play as well.

[S019]

He would probably carry Italy and Greece, and he could plausibly win or come close in France, Austria, and Finland. Being very generous, Trump could maybe carry Portugal and Spain.

This is much of an exaggeration. I don't think Trump would have come close to winning one of those.

Perhaps Hungary and Poland (and Slovenia because of Melania). And even in these cases, I would have my doubts.

Current French Polls: 30% Le Pen, 7% Zemmour, 5% Wauquiez, 2% Dupont-Aignan. This is reasonably close.

Current Austrian Polls: 26% FPO, 22% OVP. Again, quite close.

2023 Finnish Election: 20.8% National Coalition, 20.1% Finns, 4.2% Christian Democrats.

How many EPP voters would really be voting for Biden in these countries?

A substantial minority of them - probably enough - as Biden would be positioned to dismantle the social safety nets slower than Trump (but still faster than these parties, in many respects).

I agree with this for the most part, but I don't think Democrats would really dismantle the social safety net, in the same way that if a British Tory politician moved to America and joined the GOP, they would not be calling for establishing an NHS. Americans in general are just more conservative on these types of issues, for instance healthcare in this country was basically settled on a centrist to center-right consensus. The left in 2010 adopted the position of the center-right in the 1990s as a compromise measure and now basically no one relevant wants to touch the issue.

He would probably carry Italy and Greece, and he could plausibly win or come close in France, Austria, and Finland. Being very generous, Trump could maybe carry Portugal and Spain.

This is much of an exaggeration. I don't think Trump would have come close to winning one of those.

Perhaps Hungary and Poland (and Slovenia because of Melania). And even in these cases, I would have my doubts.

Current French Polls: 30% Le Pen, 7% Zemmour, 5% Wauquiez, 2% Dupont-Aignan. This is reasonably close.

Current Austrian Polls: 26% FPO, 22% OVP. Again, quite close.

2023 Finnish Election: 20.8% National Coalition, 20.1% Finns, 4.2% Christian Democrats.

How many EPP voters would really be voting for Biden in these countries?

Forza Italia voters were evenly split between Trump and Biden
https://twitter.com/mill226/status/1644587736597434369?s=46

The FdI split would not be this strong. Just for starters Democrats would obviously way outrun PD in big cities like Rome, also Forza Italia voters barely exist these days, so any sample with them is always going to be a bit off.

[Vice President Christian Man]

Poland & Hungary for sure. I think Italy would've in 2016 but not in 2020.

[SnowLabrador]

None of them. Some European countries are more socially conservative than others, yes, but climate denial is a complete non-starter there. We haven't exported that much insanity abroad.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The Italian poll that was posted here is from October 2020 and appears dodgy to me in how all totals add up to 100% like it "pushed" undecideds and people with no opinion - another poll from around that time had Biden ahead 47-17. I would also remind everyone that the sociology and size of some of those electorates - chiefly Fratelli d'Italia - has noticeably changed since then.

Anyway, Italy would not have voted for Trump and also it would not be his third strongest country in the EU - really not sure where that comes from.

[CumbrianLefty]

Europeans being against gay marriage doesn't mean they would be bankers for Trump.

Still less voting for mainstream right wing parties. He would get quite a lot of populist right voters and most far right ones - but the latter (as opposed to former) group is not that big anywhere.

[Sol]

A lot depends on if we're "normalizing" Trump as whatever his likely European equivalent would be like vs. Trump as he is. If it's the latter he doesn't likely win anything except maybe Hungary. If it's the former, he has a lot more room to maneuver and could win quite a lot of places.

[CumbrianLefty]

I think the strong implication of this thread is Trump (and Biden) as they actually are now.

Europe has after all had its own proto-Trumps (Berlusconi, Johnson to name just two who had certain things in common with him) who weren't exactly wildly unpopular in their prime.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I voted Greece, Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland and Italy. Only other nations he could win would be in southeastern Europe, in the Balkan region.

Baltics would vote for Biden. So would Czechia, Slovenia & Slovakia.

Hungary with the most votes. Not sure if Poland would be Trumps second best state. If we ignore Cyprus and some Balkan States i have a feeling Greece might be Trumps second best state. Hungary probably though only state Trump gets more than 60% in (ignoring Balkans & Cyprus again because who knows about these...)

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I think the strong implication of this thread is Trump (and Biden) as they actually are now.

Europe has after all had its own proto-Trumps (Berlusconi, Johnson to name just two who had certain things in common with him) who weren't exactly wildly unpopular in their prime.

Johnson is very different from Trump. I can't see UK voting for Trump or it even being remotely close, however UK is probably one of the closest countries in Western Europe after Italy.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

In my country i think Trump would win less than 20% of the vote in Flanders (!). And Wallonia + Brussels might be one of Bidens strongest regions in all of Europe. Trump probably gets less than 5% in Brussels and less than 10% in Wallonia.

As an F.Y.I. Trump isn't even popular among the far right in Flanders, because they're divided on being pro-Russia and pro-Atlanticist and some are very economically left wing (nativist) and just vote far right for racist reasons. And for the same reasons i think France probably would also strongly vote Biden. 80-20 or something like that.

Netherlands perhaps he gets more support in but not much more 75-25 to 80-20 as well. In Luxembourg he would be destroyed. And the same would happen in Germany and Austria too (85-15 and 80-20 in Austria, also something like that in Spain). Portugal might be Trumps worst state. In Scandinavia he would be totally destroyed too, Iceland/Norway/esp. Sweden/Denmark/Finland, all countries Trump would be destroyed in.

Italy... Trump probably would not win it but it would be way more close than any other Western European nation. The only nation together with UK i can see Trump having a chance of getting 30% in. And like if all those nations would be below 30%, i can see Trump getting for instance getting very close, being in the 40s here. Actually winning Italy is possible but who knows. Thinking of it, he probably falls short of it. But its the only western European country i can't fully eliminate the possibility of it (and Greece too).

[LabourJersey]

None of them. Some European countries are more socially conservative than others, yes, but climate denial is a complete non-starter there. We haven't exported that much insanity abroad.

I can totally see Trump being pro-climate for the sake of political expediency in a scenario like this, though.

Talk endlessly about "Those big beautiful renewable plants, very lovely, I could have designed them, my uncle was a great physicist actually," etc etc.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Only Hungary. If the Russia issue wasn't in play, probably Poland too, but Trump's history with Russia is from before the 2022 invasion. Poland would sure as hell not vote for him.

[EastwoodS]

Any American conservative telling you that Trump would win Eastern and parts of western Europe are doing so in a bad faith effort to try and normalize and gaslight normies into being o.k. with the far-right wing culture they stan so much.