CA-SEN UCBerkeley: Early 18, Porter 17, Schiff 14, Lee 9 (user search)
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  CA-SEN UCBerkeley: Early 18, Porter 17, Schiff 14, Lee 9 (search mode)
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Author Topic: CA-SEN UCBerkeley: Early 18, Porter 17, Schiff 14, Lee 9  (Read 572 times)
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« on: May 25, 2023, 11:54:22 PM »



Slightly misleading. Those numbers are after "positive" candidate biographies were presented. Here are the numbers prior to that info:

Early - 27%
Porter - 24%
Schiff - 21%
Lee - 11% (!!!)
Other/undecided - 17%

Those other numbers, coupled with the fact that this is a Lee internal, lead me to believe that the campaign is pretty desperate to spin this result as a positive, despite the fact that even a 9 point swing doesn't even get her out of 4th place.

Then again, this is just one poll.

The real argument to be made is that Schiff and Porter are at their ceilings whereas Lee has actual room to gain. A candidate's vote share not moving after bios is genuinely a very bad sign, as the post-bio vote tends to be the most predictive of the actual final outcome (this is all relative though, polls are of course only snapshots in time).

This here is a UC Berkeley poll, not a Barbara Lee internal. (Reposting here since I didn't see there was an existing poll thread)


Quote
Most interesting crosstabs to me—

18-39 YO: 19% KP, 9% Schiff, 12% Lee
Latinos: 21% KP, 9% Schiff, 10% Lee

Thats a recipe for Porter to do well in SoCal.
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