CA-SEN UCBerkeley: Early 18, Porter 17, Schiff 14, Lee 9
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  CA-SEN UCBerkeley: Early 18, Porter 17, Schiff 14, Lee 9
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Author Topic: CA-SEN UCBerkeley: Early 18, Porter 17, Schiff 14, Lee 9  (Read 561 times)
Sir Mohamed
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« on: May 25, 2023, 09:04:27 AM »

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: May 25, 2023, 09:06:02 AM »

Favs:
Porter: 35/20 (+15)
Lee: 26/19 (+7)
Schiff: 36/32 (+4)
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Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #2 on: May 25, 2023, 09:16:47 AM »

Porter's fanbase is by far the most engaged and "online" at the moment, so I'm not surprised she's leading early. The question is if she's reached her ceiling while Schiff (establishment/"normie" support) and Lee (older black voters) have much more room to grow.
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Gracile
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« Reply #3 on: May 25, 2023, 05:52:49 PM »

I think Lee has more room to grow with younger left-leaning voters based on this poll.
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« Reply #4 on: May 25, 2023, 11:54:22 PM »



Slightly misleading. Those numbers are after "positive" candidate biographies were presented. Here are the numbers prior to that info:

Early - 27%
Porter - 24%
Schiff - 21%
Lee - 11% (!!!)
Other/undecided - 17%

Those other numbers, coupled with the fact that this is a Lee internal, lead me to believe that the campaign is pretty desperate to spin this result as a positive, despite the fact that even a 9 point swing doesn't even get her out of 4th place.

Then again, this is just one poll.

The real argument to be made is that Schiff and Porter are at their ceilings whereas Lee has actual room to gain. A candidate's vote share not moving after bios is genuinely a very bad sign, as the post-bio vote tends to be the most predictive of the actual final outcome (this is all relative though, polls are of course only snapshots in time).

This here is a UC Berkeley poll, not a Barbara Lee internal. (Reposting here since I didn't see there was an existing poll thread)


Quote
Most interesting crosstabs to me—

18-39 YO: 19% KP, 9% Schiff, 12% Lee
Latinos: 21% KP, 9% Schiff, 10% Lee

Thats a recipe for Porter to do well in SoCal.
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jfern
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« Reply #5 on: May 25, 2023, 11:55:17 PM »

Early is leading, but it's early.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: May 26, 2023, 07:52:58 AM »

There is a CA Primary in 24 I seriously doubt that Early is gonna be the top candidate anyways with Schiff, Porter and Lee this just one poll and Rs would still lose a runoff because how unpopular Trump is
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #7 on: May 26, 2023, 04:10:50 PM »
« Edited: June 04, 2023, 03:09:57 PM by Dr Oz Lost Party! »

Well, this an interesting result... Porter has gotten little to no public support from the party. Schiff and Lee have sapped up nearly every endorsement so far, which makes me think KP's lead may not last when the campaign really kicks into high gear. She's riding high on her internet fame and I'm not really sure how far that can get her.
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