TX TexHPF: Cruz +7

[Sir Mohamed]

Tbh, I never heard of this pollster. GOP-affiliated firm?

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1661573980573118464

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's very far away Eday, it's wave insurance

[Pollster]

This poll has Cruz getting 19% of the Black vote and only leading by 7. Trump is also getting 20% and only leading by 2.

Huge red flag.

[Unelectable Bystander]

This poll has Cruz getting 19% of the Black vote and only leading by 7. Trump is also getting 20% and only leading by 2.

Huge red flag.

What is a red flag about that? The difference is in the white vote, where Cruz leads 58-33 instead of 54-35.

Yes, Cruz getting 19% of the black vote is not believable, but neither is Biden already being at 35% with white voters when he lost them 66%-33% last time, or Biden only narrowly losing Gen X voters.

The sample is also 42% self identified democrats.

[Pollster]

This poll has Cruz getting 19% of the Black vote and only leading by 7. Trump is also getting 20% and only leading by 2.

Huge red flag.

What is a red flag about that? The difference is in the white vote, where Cruz leads 58-33 instead of 54-35.

Yes, Cruz getting 19% of the black vote is not believable, but neither is Biden already being at 35% with white voters when he lost them 66%-33% last time, or Biden only narrowly losing Gen X voters.

The sample is also 42% self identified democrats.

The red flag is that if Republicans are getting 19-20% of the Black vote there is a clearly measurement error among other demographic(s), or the weighting is just insane.

[Unelectable Bystander]

This poll has Cruz getting 19% of the Black vote and only leading by 7. Trump is also getting 20% and only leading by 2.

Huge red flag.

What is a red flag about that? The difference is in the white vote, where Cruz leads 58-33 instead of 54-35.

Yes, Cruz getting 19% of the black vote is not believable, but neither is Biden already being at 35% with white voters when he lost them 66%-33% last time, or Biden only narrowly losing Gen X voters.

The sample is also 42% self identified democrats.

The red flag is that if Republicans are getting 19-20% of the Black vote there is a clearly measurement error among other demographic(s), or the weighting is just insane.

Say the real value is 12%. I struggle to see how 20% is outside the range of possible outcomes in a sample of 130 people?

[Pollster]

This poll has Cruz getting 19% of the Black vote and only leading by 7. Trump is also getting 20% and only leading by 2.

Huge red flag.

What is a red flag about that? The difference is in the white vote, where Cruz leads 58-33 instead of 54-35.

Yes, Cruz getting 19% of the black vote is not believable, but neither is Biden already being at 35% with white voters when he lost them 66%-33% last time, or Biden only narrowly losing Gen X voters.

The sample is also 42% self identified democrats.

The red flag is that if Republicans are getting 19-20% of the Black vote there is a clearly measurement error among other demographic(s), or the weighting is just insane.

Say the real value is 12%. I struggle to see how 20% is outside the range of possible outcomes in a sample of 130 people?

If the real value is 12% then 20% is at the very highest end of the margin of error (+/- 8.6% for a sample of 130) and this doesn't account for design effect which is usually worth a couple points in either direction. Race results are often directly impacted by weights on partisan metrics as well.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a poll in the middle a Debt Ceiling increase and it's 18 MNTHS Ford was down 11 and came back on Corker in TN and I believe Obama was blk and won Red and blue states

[Ron DeSantis enthusiast]

Very good poll for Cruz, but we're still 18 months behind the election, there is still too much time. I don't think he is going to win by 7