Utica Elections 2023 Megathread - Mike Galime elected Mayor Edition

[NYDem]

More out of boredom than anything else, I've decided to write up a post on Utica's upcoming elections. Being one of the premier metro areas of the United States, I was shocked to see that this had not already been done by someone else.

Schedule
On May 16, there will be elections to the nonpartisan Utica School Board (as well as a vote on the budget).
On June 27, there will be a primary election.
On November 7, there will be a general election for the full 10-member city council, mayor, and 1 of the 3 city court judges.

[NYDem]

School Board Election - May 16

Background
The school board is a 7-member nonpartisan body, with staggered 5 year terms. The school board has developed two relatively solid factions in recent years despite its “nonpartisan” elections. For the purposes of describing this election, I will be assigning the factions the labels of Pro-Administration (P) and Anti-Administration (A).

The Pro-Administration faction is generally supportive of the superintendent of schools, Bruce Karam, who has been on paid administrative leave for the past several months pending investigation. The Anti-Administration faction would like to see Karam removed.


Current Board Composition
Joseph Hobika (A) - President
Danielle Padula (A) - Vice President
Robert Cardillo (P)
Donald Dawes (P)
Tennille Knoop (A)
James Paul (A)
Dave Testa (P)

The Anti-Administration faction captured the majority with Knoop and Paul’s election in 2022.


This Year’s Election
This election is to fill two seats: The seat currently held by President Hobika (A), as well as the seat currently held by Dave Testa (P). The candidates will be placed on a common ballot for both seats, with each voter selecting up to 2 candidates. The top 2 vote finishers will win seats on the board. The candidates are as follows:

Joseph Hobika (A) - Current school board President. Like most of the board members prior to ~2019, Hobika was vaguely pro-establishment at the start of his tenure. He has swung towards the Anti-Administration faction as partisanship increased, and is firmly identified with that faction at present. He campaigns on continuing the reforms started in the past year, including attempts to cut down on overtime abuse, graft, and no-show jobs. He opposes reinstating the current superintendent of schools. He is essentially running on a ticket with Jason Cooper.

Jason Cooper (A) - PTA member. He is broadly supportive of the current board majority. He is similar in policy to Hobika, but he is more of a political newcomer.

John Martoccia (P) - Generally opposed to the current board majority. His campaigning emphasizes parental rights and parental involvement, proposing to create elected parents’ committees which would be different from the existing PTAs in vague and unspecified ways. His other main proposal is a strict and stringently applied student code of conduct. He refused to state a position on the Karam issue, and says that he is open to working with anyone to reach consensus.

Angela Greco (P) - Former district employee. Appeared at a single candidates forum where she did not say much. Vaguely in the pro-Karam camp, but doesn’t seem to have many specific policies or positions. Endorsed by Sue Arcuri as her second vote.

Sue Arcuri (P) - Local deranged conspiracy theorist. Pro-Administration. Believes that the current school board majority is leading a witch hunt against Karam. Believes that liberal degenerates are infiltrating our school systems in an attempt to make kids trans. Says that she’ll stop the liberals from putting litter boxes in schools, like they did in Little Falls, Herkimer, and New Hartford (Three places where liberals definitively are not running things). Maintains an infowarrior blog that can be found by searching her name, for those who are curious.

Ra Si Mar - A late entrant to the race; I’m unsure of where she falls politically. As far as I’m aware, she’s the first Burmese-American to seek elected office in Utica. It should be interesting to see her vote distribution in the election, as the Burmese population here generally has low voter turnout.


What to Watch for on Tuesday
I expect Cooper and Hobika to run up a lot of votes in South Utica, particularly in election districts 3-3, 3-4, 3-5, and 3-6, which are high turnout areas.

East Utica should be more contested, but I think that Cooper and Hobika should also get a good proportion of the vote there. I expect East Utica to be relatively good for Martoccia, though I'm unsure if that will result in actually winning the area. Greco may also perform relatively well here, though I doubt she outright wins any election districts. This is probably the area to watch tonight, if any such thing exists.

The Cornhill neighborhood [Which I'll broadly define as being bounded by Conkling St, Genesee St, and South St] should see a good performance for Hobika, though I expect turnout to be low. This is also where Mar could have an impact on the race, and I expect it to be where much of her vote is concentrated.

Downtown Utica [ED 1-2, 1-3] hasn't historically had a high population and what population it had usually didn't vote, so I'm unsure what we'll see here. The construction of numerous loft apartments in the past couple of years should mean a greater number of voters, though I have little reference for their partisanship.

West Utica typically has terrible turnout. I expect it to be competitive between Hobika, Cooper, and Martoccia, though I doubt that it will have much impact on the race.

North Utica is where I expect Martoccia and Greco to perform best. It is also the area where Arcuri should have her best relative performance, though I seriously doubt she places top 3 in any district.

[NYDem]

Final Prediction
If I had to guess, I'd say that this race is Lean Cooper, Lean Hobika. You never can be too sure in such local races where there is no polling and turnout is sporadic.

Hobika should have incumbency and a well-funded campaign in his favor. He is perceived as lacking somewhat in authenticity. He is considered arrogant by many, and Anti-Administration voters have demonstrated hesitation over his previous generally Pro-Administration behavior. Still, I expect them to come around in the end.

Cooper is running close to Hobika and draws from a similar pool of supporters. He lacks the advantage of incumbency and familiarity, but is perceived as more genuine by his supporters.

Martoccia is who I expect to finish third, though the possibility of him breaking into the top two shouldn't be discounted. I expect the pro-Karam vote to coalesce around him, and think that he may attract votes from those who are skeptical of Hobika.

I expect Greco to finish fourth. She doesn't seem to have campaigned much, and didn't appear and most of the candidate forums. I have been following this race more closely than probably 95% of the city and I still don't know any of her proposals or ideas. She doesn’t have a website. I would be quite surprised if she finished above the more prolific campaigners Hobika, Cooper and Martoccia.

I expect Mar to finish fifth. She was a relatively late entrant and hasn't had much chance to campaign. She's an independent running for a spot on a relatively polarized (albeit officially non-partisan) body, which I don't think will help her. Anecdotally, I've heard that Anti-Administration voters who are upset with Hobika may use their second vote on her, though I doubt this will be a significant amount. I think it's possible that she finishes above Greco, but I strongly doubt she finishes in the top 3.

I expect Arcuri to finish last. She has no money, essentially no campaign other than her blog, and appeals only to the Q-anon vote. She's a conspiracy theorist who spends most of her time prattling on about "the woke" and pedophiles in the schools. If she actually wins this race I'm going to move out of the city.

[NYDem]

Anecdotal reports are saying high turnout in the Ridgewood area of South Utica. Standard Atlas election day hysteria requires me to say that this means Cooper and Hobika are locks to win. Martoccia and Greco in disarray.

[Duke of York]

Whose running for mayor this year?

[LastMcGovernite]

Coming at you from 2ish hours west on I-90 in Rochester. This is pretty fascinating! Keep it up.

[NYDem]

Whose running for mayor this year?

I'll make a post on that after this election is done with. There's an open seat, with two Democrats and two Republicans running. The Democrats are 3rd Ward Councilor Celeste Friend and At Large Councilor Frank DiBrango. The Republicans are School Board Member Bob Cardillo and Common Council President Michael Galime.

Celeste Friend has received the endorsement of the Working Families Party, and has stated that she does not plan to run in the general if she doesn't win the Democratic primary.

Bob Cardillo has received the endorsement of the Conservative Party, but has implied that he will run in the general on that line even if he does not win the Republican Primary.

[NYDem]

6/14 polling places reporting:

Arcuri: 137
Greco: 109
Cooper: 409
Martoccia: 107
Hobika: 464
Mar: 99

Hobika and Cooper way ahead is in line with expectations, Arcuri in third (even a distant third) is disappointing though. She’s certifiable.

[NYDem]

14/14 Reporting:

Arcuri: 454 -- 8.37%
Greco: 395 -- 7.28%
Cooper: 1908 -- 35.17%
Martoccia: 416 -- 7.67%
Hobika: 2041 -- 37.62%
Mar: 211 -- 3.89%

Cooper and Hobika win in a landslide!

Sue Arcuri has declared the results fraudulent on her blog. No shocker there.

As expected, the school district budget and the resolution to fund the Utica Public Library passed by wide margins.

When I get full results by election district I'll post with maps.

[NYDem]

I haven't been able to get precinct-by-precinct vote totals, so no maps unfortunately. Not much to see though: Cooper and Hobika won 13/14 polling places by large margins. One low-turnout polling place (MLK Elementary School) in the Cornhill neighborhood was won by last-place finisher Ra Si Mar. If I ever get the data though, I'll post maps.

[NYDem]

Mayoral Primaries - June 27
Well everyone, I'm back at it again. I planned to do more with this thread, but it wasn't until tonight that I got around to actually typing anything up. Time to bore you all with local elections nobody outside Oneida County cares about. Let's dive in!


Background
The City of Utica has a mayor-council structure. The mayor is elected to a 4 year term in the year prior to the Presidential election. The mayor is limited to two consecutive terms. The nine voting members of the common council are elected to 2 year terms in odd years, limited to four terms. Six members are elected by ward, and three at large. The separate common council president is elected at large to a 2 year term.


Current City Government Composition
The current mayor of Utica is Robert Palmieri (D). He has served three terms, and is barred from serving another consecutive term.
The city council currently has a 6-3 voting majority for the Democrats.
The current city council president is Michael Galime (R).


This Year’s Election
This year's election features contested primaries for both the Democratic and Republican ballot lines. The candidates are as follows, with brief and oversimplified overviews for each one:

Frank DiBrango (D) - At-large common council member, first elected in 2017. Previously worked for the Utica fire department and is currently VP for a security firm in the city. DiBrango is generally more establishmentarian. He has been endorsed by the city Democratic Party.
DiBrango is more or less running on continuing Palmieri's policies, though this is an oversimplification. He favors additional funding for public safety, more strict enforcement of codes, and investing more in economic development. He believes that the city should create a reserve fund for flood mitigation.

Celeste Friend (D) - First ward common council member, first elected 2019. Previously worked as a philosophy professor at Hamilton College and is currently an artist and jeweler. Friend is generally more progressive. She has been endorsed by the Working Families Party. She has promised to turn down the Working Families ballot line if she loses the Democratic Primary.
Friend generally favors more progressive policies. She favors additional transparency in the city government, community outreach and consultation, and more strict enforcement of codes. She is in favor of improve transportation by building more sidewalks and bike lanes, as well as planting more trees.

Michael Galime (R) - At large common council president, first elected in 2015. Currently works as a software engineer. Galime has been endorsed by the city Republican Party.
Galime is a conservative, but seems less "establishment" than Cardillo, his party endorsement notwithstanding. He supports increasing governmental communication, increasing funding for emergency services to combat crime and drug problems, and increasing development in neighborhoods outside downtown.

Bob Cardillo (R) - School board member, elected 2019. Previously served as a senior advisor in the Department of Housing and Urban Development, as a county legislator, and as local Republican Party chair. Currently CEO of a public policy firm. He has been endorsed by the Conservative Party. He has indicated that he will not turn down the Conservative ballot line if he loses the Republican Primary.
Cardillo is probably the most generally conservative candidate in the race. His stated priorities are to decrease crime by increasing law enforcement, combating inflation, increasing youth outreach, and increasing emphasis on neighborhoods. He has spoken out against a supposed spike in illegal immigration, though he supports the refugee relocation program and legal immigration to the city (I am unaware of any local politician, D or R who opposes this).


What to Watch for on Tuesday
South Utica: The region to watch for the Democratic Primary. Friend's home territory on the council and a high turnout area. To quote the woman herself, "South Utica runs this city". I'm not sure that holds in general, but it is true that the area punches above its weight thanks to high turnout and political engagement. Friend is going to win it, the real question is how high turnout is and just how big her margins are. On the Republican side I expect this area to be more competitive.

East Utica: Should be hotly contested on both sides. Still a high turnout area, though perhaps not as importanta as it once was. Home of the Democratic Party establishment (Old Italian-Americans). DiBrango should have a substantial lead over Friend on the Democratic side here. If East Utica reports first and DiBrango is losing you can more or less call the race there. Cardillo likely has the edge in the Reublican Primary, but I wouldn't be surprised if either candidate wins it.

Cornhill: I expect this to be a competitive area in the Democratic Primary, though low turnout. Friend probably has the edge. I do not expect a significant number of Republican Primary voters

Downtown Utica: I'm unsure of both turnout levels and expected vote. Obviously more important to the Democratic Primary given demographics, but in advance I'm not sure who is favored.

West Utica: I expect that Friend will perform well here, but despite significant outreach  I suspect turnout will be bad. I doubt the Republican Primary has a significant number of voters.

North Utica: Is more establishmentarian territory. I expect both DiBrango and Cardillo to do well here. It generally has good turnout, but has a lower population than other neighborhoods. One of the more Republican leaning areas overall. If either DiBrango or Cardillo is losing here early it does not bode well for their chances.


Final Prediction
I'd call this race Likely Friend for the Democratic Primary and a Tossup/Tilt Galime for the Republican Primary.

Friend has, to her credit, been running a pretty slick campaign. She's the only candidate I've seen who has campaign materials in languages other than English (Spanish, Bosnian, Burmese, and another I don't recognize, likely one of the Karen languages), and has taken out digital advertising. She's clearly aiming to gain support from the young voters and minorities with progressive rhetoric and policy. She's going to do well there, though relying on a youth surge is never a good strategy. The biggest thing in her favor is her strength in South Utica, which I expect will give her an insurmountable lead even if she underperforms elsewhere. Working against her is the fact that she's not a native Utican, and has a self-admitted tendency to come off as an annoying liberal professor.

DiBrango has the backing of the Democratic Party establishment and his background as a Utica firefighter is a positive, but that's about it. He hasn't been a vigorous campaigner and he isn't much of a debater. He doesn't have much by the way of grand new policies. He should do well in East Utica and North Utica, but he likely won't do well enough to overcome Friend's advantages.

Galime is the youngest candidate in the race, and he has the official party endorsement. He has also been running a pretty active campaign. I expect that he'll win, though I think this race will be closer than the Democratic one.

Cardillo has the Conservative Party endorsement and is probably the most "tough on crime" candidate in the race, which could be a help in the Republican Primary. The party didn't endorse him, but he should still be popular among Republican Party die-hards. Working against him is the fact that he's pretty abrasive personally.


Disclaimer
I am personally in favor of DiBrango and Galime, and plan to vote for DiBrango in the primary. My reasons for doing so don't have much to do with the principle issues of the race, so I haven't included them in this assessment. I have tried to correct for any personal bias in my descriptions, but I am still noting this for the sake of transparency.

[NYDem]

Utica Common Council Primaries - June 27
The top of the ticket race is the only one that anyone has even a slight chance of caring about outside the city, but for completeness sake I'll summarize the other races as well. There aren't many.


Current Situation
As previously mentioned, the Utica Common Council has a 6-3 Democratic voting majority. It's members are:

1st Ward: Katie Aiello (D)
2nd Ward: Robert Burmaster (D)
3rd Ward: Celeste Friend (D)
4th Ward: Frank Meola (D)
5th Ward: Delvin Moody (D)
6th Ward: Joseph Betrus Jr. (R)
At Large: Mark Williamson (R)
At Large: Samantha Colosimo Testa (R)
At Large: Frank DiBrango (D)


This Year’s Election
There are contested primaries for the First Ward and the Fourth Ward, both on the Democratic side. Both feature challenges to incumbants.

First Ward: Katie Aiello (D) - Current common council member, first elected 2021. Previously did marketing work in Charlotte NC and in Utica, and is currently owner of a cafe in Downtown Utica. Aiello is generally more progressive, and is aligned with Celeste Friend. She was initially endorsed by the city Democratic Party, but later had the endorsement withdrawn. Her position on the ballot was challenged by her opponent, alleging that she is actually a legal resident of Herkimer NY. This challenge failed.

First Ward: Mirela Pekmez (D) - Local bank employee. To be honest I'm not exactly sure what her policy differences with Aiello are; her run is essentially the product of a personal feud.

Pekmez and her husband Frank Pelli have feuded with Aiello since her decision to not award them American Rescue Plan funds. They sought aid to renovate Pelli's East Utica rental property into either a "blue-collar union" or a "Bosnian/Italian community center" (They proposed both at different times; I have no clue what either would actually imply). In true Utica fashion, Pelli has been accused of attempting bribery  to secure said funds. He also has a criminal record, sporting a 2016 arrest for using an "incendiary device" to light a car on fire after a personal dispute. He claims to be a different person now, and has attributed his arson to growing up in a "tough Italian neighborhood".

Pekmez's position on the ballot was challenged by Aiello, alleging that collected signatures were fraudulent. This challenge succeeded and Pekmez is now running a write-in campaign.

Fourth Ward: Frank Meola (D) - Current common council member and Democratic Party insider, previously elected to three terms starting 2003, and two terms starting 2019. Elected to one term as common council president in 2013. A proprietor of various mostly auto-related businesses, Frank Meola is more well-known for his colorful criminal and legal history than any particular policies.

In 2000 Frank Meola was one of 25 people charged in relation to a multi-million dollar Upstate shoplifting ring and mattress fencing racket. Several of those involved were members of notable local families: A Zogby, a Marino, and 3 members of the Brindisi family were involved, among many others. Meola would serve 5 years probation for his part. He was implicated in the 2009 trial of Paul and Steven Mancuso, who operated a bogus asbestos removal service in the area. He escaped prosecution  although it was alleged that he falsified asbestos tests. He also came under controversy in 2014 when another local politician accused him of both having an affair with his wife and consequently threatening him over the affair.

Fourth Ward: Frank Carcone (D). I'll be honest, I know very little about this guy. The first ward primary got most of the local media attention thanks to the trial. The biggest point in his favor is that he isn't named Frank Meola and has never been convicted of involvement in organized crime.


Final Prediction
I'd call this first ward race Likely Aiello and the fourth ward race Likely Meola.

Anecdotal of course, but Aiello seems to be well-liked by her constituents. Combine that with the fact that she is the only candidate actually on the ballot and the a slight progressive shift in the local party, I think she wins by a decent margin.

Meola is something of an institution for reasons defying understanding. The East Utica Italian good old boys club is going to turn out in force and will likely return him to another undeserved term in office. Carcone has a chance, but this race hasn't gotten a lot of attention.


Disclaimer
I am personally in favor of Aiello and Carcone. This seems like a pretty easy choice for me given the known criminal records and corrupt dealings of their opponents, but I am still noting this for the sake of transparency.

[NYDem]

NYT reports both Friend and DiBrango at 50.0% with 41% of the vote in!
On the Republican side Galime is up 72% to 28% with 56% in.

Without knowing where is reporting I'm inclined to say this is good for Friend. South Utica reported last in the school board race and should be in the bag for her. That being said, DiBrango could also have significant vote still out.

[NYDem]

Everything is in except some absentees. It's over, Friend won.

In the Fourth Ward it looks like Meola has won again. He's up 308/267/9.

The First Ward didn't actually have a primary given there was only one ballot-qualified candidate.

[NYDem]

Democratic Primary Map



Blue=Friend, Red=DiBrango, Yellow=Write-in. Grey=Tied.

Friend got 51.0% to DiBrango's 41.6% and 7.4% in write-ins.

As expected, Friend runs up a large margin in South Utica and DiBrango does the same in East Utica. Friend won most of Cornhill, West Utica, and Downtown with lower turnout. North Utica is split-- which is what killed DiBrango in the end. This is the sort of area he would have needed to win.

Amusingly the one district which was carried by write-ins (ED 1-7) is the home territory of Mirela Pekmez, the candidate who was removed from the ballot in the First Ward. It seems that her supporters attempted a write-in campaign, unaware of the fact that the First Ward race wouldn't even be on the ballot, and wrote-in Pekmez for mayor.

[Duke of York]

Is Friend favored in the general?

[NYDem]

Is Friend favored in the general?

I would say so, but it's still early.

Utica is a generally Democratic city, but partisan affiliation only means so much in elections this local, personalities carry a lot. Galime is young and pretty likable, so he has that going for him. He doesn't have any ties to organized crime or corruption allegations, unlike some older politicians. Galime's main problem at the moment is that Cardillo secured the Conservative Party line back in February and has no plans to drop out. In a 3 way race I'm pretty sure Friend comes out on top.

Cardillo pulled the same sh**t back in 2011 when current mayor Rob Palmieri won his first term, and you can look to that election to see the likely result. The Republican primary winner and nominee was Michael Cerminaro, but Cardillo stayed in the race as a Conservative. There were also two left-wing minor candidates, but they had little impact. The results were:

Palmieri (D/WF): 4340, 41.0%
Cerminaro (R): 4040, 38.1%
Cardillo (C/I): 1690, 16.0%
Sanita (Rainbow†): 295, 2.8%
Clemente (G): 222, 2.1%

Friend would be favored (if only slightly) even if it were a two-way race, but Cardillo splitting the vote makes a victory much likelier.

† - The Rainbow Party was a local ballot line used by eccentric mayor Ed Hanna (1973-1977, 1995-2000). He ran in 1973, 1975, 1977, 1991, 1995, 1999, and 2007.

[NYDem]

The loser of the Democratic primary for mayor, Frank DiBrango, was hospitalized Wednesday following a car crash. His injuries were not life-threatening.

Coincidence? Yeah, probably.

[Kevinstat]

I have family who used to live in Livingston Manor, New York (part of the town of Rockland in Sullivan County) and my aunt and uncle now live in King Ferry, New York (so I assume in the town of Genoa in Cayuga County, New York, although King Ferry isn't even a census-designated place so it's tough to be certain).  My cousin Kellie used to live in what I seem to recall was the town of Groton, New York in Tompkins County, but in a part of that town near the village of McLean that was in the Dryden Central School District (she and her partner, now wife, were supportive of progressive candidates there).  School districts in New York often don't follow municipal lines, and the Dryden School District seemed from a Census Bureau map I looked at to include parts of seven towns in three counties (parts of Dryden, Groton and Caroline in Tompkins County, parts of Harford, Courtlandville and Virgil in Courtland County, and a tiny corner of Richford in Tioga County).  I remember asking my cousin how those elections worked and apparently people didn't vote in the same polling places they used for other elections but at the schools (I imagine absentee voting was also possible, but I'm not sure of that).  I recall having heard something about one not even having to be registered to vote, but I might be misremembering that or my cousin could have told me wrong there.

I started composing this post before looking at what the situation was in Utica.  I see that the Utica City School District is coterminous with the city, but there are a lot of school districts nearby that don't follow municipal lines.  Do you follow school board elections nearby at all, and know how it works there for people in different municipalities and counties to vote for School Board members?  (Two of the six towns bordering Utica if I've counted correctly are in Herkimer County rather than Oneida County, and all four of the school districts bordering Utica cross municipal lines, two cross county lines, and there are I think 10 other school districts covering parts of those six towns further away from the city.  It's a real hodgepodge, like it is in the Ithica area, but Utica itself unlike Ithica is coterminous with a school district.  The city and town of Ithica are both entirely in the Ithica City School District, but there are parts of eight other towns in that district, two of which are in a different county and none of which are entirely in that school district.)

[NYDem]

I'm going to write an update for the general election soon, as well as an answer to Kevinstat's question (I'm not entirely sure how elections work in districts that cross county boundaries), but first some breaking political news:

Lou LaPolla, a longtime local politician who was Mayor of Utica 1984-1995 and school board member 1997-2022, has been arrested on federal charges of mail fraud. He is accused of using nearly all of the >$40,000 donated for his late wife's memorial scholarship fund for personal use. Locals are in shocked disbelief that a 50-year officeholder in Utica's government has actually been breaking the law. We are in unprecedented times.

[Electric Circus]

Amazing thread. My grandfather had some political dealings in Utica decades ago, and I got the impression that many of the local politicians were mobbed up through the seventies.

[NYDem]

Amazing thread. My grandfather had some political dealings in Utica decades ago, and I got the impression that many of the local politicians were mobbed up through the seventies.

It's hard to give a definitive yes or no given the nature of the mob, but that is very much the impression of the locals who were around back then too. The extent of mafia control over the city was probably exaggerated, but it definitely was an influence.

I still plan on doing a lengthy write-up before the election, but I've been swamped lately and haven't had much time for it.

For now I'll simply leave this piece of local political and demographic trivia (of the sort that will likely make BRTD's head spin): If Celeste Friend (D) wins the mayoral election, she will be the first non-Catholic mayor of Utica since Boyd Golder (D) left office in 1956. That's a streak 10 mayors long.

[Senator Incitatus]

Writing in Roscoe Conkling.

[NYDem]

I'm disappointed that I haven't done more with this thread, but I've been swamped lately and haven't had time to write up the effortposts I wanted.

I've already touched on the mayoral race upthread, so I will take this chance to briefly mention the county executive race in Oneida County. Incumbent Executive Anthony Picente (R) was first appointed to fill a vacancy in 2006, and has since been elected to 5 consecutive terms as county executive. He is running for re-election this year, and is opposed only by Michael Hennessy on the "Term Limit Tax Cut" party line.

Hennessy was his opponent in 2019 as well, that time as a Democrat. That race is also one of the only races I can remember in recent politics where a Democrat ran solidly to the right of a Republican. Hennessy decried the county's high tax rates, called Picente a fake Republican, attacked him for his Cuomo endorsement, and promised to implement county term limits and budget cuts. He lost 66%-33%.

He switched parties after the last election, saying that the Democratic Party had become "too liberal," and became a Republican. He attempted to challenge Picente in the primary this year but was removed from the ballot for invalid signatures. He successfully petitioned onto the ballot for the general though. This year is just the same thing again with a different party line, and a bit more "Picente is trying to silence me" type rhetoric from Hennessy.

NYDem rating: Safe R.

Picente is likely going to hold this seat until he dies or loses a Republican primary. Neither happened this year. He is going to have support from the county's Democrats as well as most of the independents and Republicans. Hennessy may increase his support from last time, but Picente is too entrenched and Henessy too poor a candidate for me to think there is any real chance of an upset here.


As far as the mayoral race goes, I'm sticking with my initial prediction from right after the primary. Celeste Friend (D) has a dedicated operation behind her, a high-turnout base in South Utica, as well as institutional support from the Democratic Party. She has turned off some of the old-establishment East Utica Italian Democrats who perceive her as being too far left, but the Republican vote is already going to be split between Galime (R) and Cardillo (C).

Final NYDem Rating: Lean D.

If it isn't Friend, it's going to be Galime. I don't think Cardillo has any shot here.

[NYDem]

Well, with an estimated 25% of the vote in Michael Galime (R) is crushing Celeste Friend (D) in the mayoral race. With over 6600 votes reporting, Galime leads 64.6% to 29%. I'm almost inclined to think that there is some sort of weird Election Day/early voting thing going on here because I didn't think it would be possible for her to lose this badly. I always thought this race would be competitive. I'm not all that broken up about it though. I've never been a fan of hers and Galime is far from the worst Republican the area has to offer. Part of Galime's overperformance is definitely coming from Cardillo's abject failure as a candidate. He currently has less than 5% of the vote.

The top of the ballot race is a landslide, and I feel safe calling it now. Emperor Anthony Picente (R), long may he reign, has secured another term as Oneida County Executive. He leads the pathetic and sad conspiracy theorist Michael Hennessy (I) 85%-15%.

Lower on the local ballot, it seems that the Galime overperformance resulted in some coattails. Reublicans will pick up seats on the common council assuming the margins stay roughly where they are. One of the current losers (though not one that I am willing to call!) is 4th ward councilman Frank Meola (D), who has had an inexplicably long career in politics for someone with an organized crime conviction under his belt.