Australia 2007

[minionofmidas]

I think that's 65% in Franklin.

I think it's 66. The Coalition figure's last digit looks very much like a 4 to me (although it could be a 1 - never a 5 though).

[Verily]

I think that's 65% in Franklin.

I think it's 66. The Coalition figure's last digit looks very much like a 4 to me (although it could be a 1 - never a 5 though).

You're right, the Coalition figure does look like 34, but I really can't see a 66 in the ALP figure.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I saw the primaries at the state level for the poll - what's interesting is that the Green's PV is 17%.

[Verily]

I saw the primaries at the state level for the poll - what's interesting is that the Green's PV is 17%.

Think they could win a second Senate seat in Tasmania?

[minionofmidas]

I think that's 65% in Franklin.

I think it's 66. The Coalition figure's last digit looks very much like a 4 to me (although it could be a 1 - never a 5 though).

You're right, the Coalition figure does look like 34, but I really can't see a 66 in the ALP figure.

Doesn't really look like one to me either, but it could be one. Couldn't be a 9.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If it is 66% that's quite surprising; the general assumption was that Quick's retirement would cause the swing in Franklin to be lower than average for Tasmania.

I saw the primaries at the state level for the poll - what's interesting is that the Green's PV is 17%.

Think they could win a second Senate seat in Tasmania?

No; I think they would need about a quarter of the vote to get two Senate seats. Labor should pick up the third Liberal seat though.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If it is 66% that's quite surprising; the general assumption was that Quick's retirement would cause the swing in Franklin to be lower than average for Tasmania.

I saw the primaries at the state level for the poll - what's interesting is that the Green's PV is 17%.

Think they could win a second Senate seat in Tasmania?

No; I think they would need about a quarter of the vote to get two Senate seats. Labor should pick up the third Liberal seat though.

Al is correct, the Greens would need roughly 26% of the Primary vote to pick up a second seat.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Frankin is 66%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A new poll shows North Sydney at 50/50...

[Platypus]

North Sydney and Patterson are my two big surprise seats this election, with Gippsland and Dawson also vaguely possible as major upsets.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm from "that side of the Harbour" and for Nth Sydney to be under serious threat would be utterly shocking. I had heard rumblings about Nth Sydney since about 2 weeks in - I thought there might be a 5-7% swing in that seat - giving Hockey a scare.

But the primary in that poll shows him at 44% - if that were to pan out on election day that would be a 12% swing. All I can say is that Labor will rue the day it didn't put a high profile candidate into Warringah. I did hear from friends inside that Abbott is polling well below his 2004 primary  ie. below 50%.

[Hash]

Is North Sydney a generally Liberal stronghold/area? (Isn't Howard's Bennelong in N. Sydney?)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is North Sydney a generally Liberal stronghold/area?

Yes. You could say that. Yes. If North Sydney falls it would be the rough equivilent of Labour in the U.K gaining Cities of London & Westminster or the Socialists in France gaining... ooh... let's say Paris 3rd.
Polnut could tell you better as he be from that general area.

Btw, Bennelong is in the northern half of Sydney, but not in the North Sydney division.

[Hash]

So a Labor breakthrough here is like the RPR breakthrough in the Nievre back in 1993?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So a Labor breakthrough here is like the RPR breakthrough in the Nievre back in 1993?

Basically, yes. If it happens.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New newspoll; 54/46. Isn't it interesting that almost all polls this election have said basically the same thing?

Oh, and a newspoll poll of marginals (note that marginals polls tend to be rather less accurate than normal polls; even in Australia) indicates that the swing will be lower in Victoria than in NSW/Queensland/SA.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Nth Sydney/Bradfield/Berowra/Warrigah/McKellar are the Blue Ribbon Liberal North Shore Bastions - the results TPP usually have the Libs somewhere between 60 and 70%. I've lived in Bradfield and Berowra.

For Labor to win one of these seats would be a far bigger upset than Howard losing Bennelong. Bennelong is no longer in liberal territory - it's regarded as the most diverse seat in Sydney (although the Wentworth re-distribution will give it a run for it's money) largely because it's been redistributed futher and further west into very marginal territory.

The poll have been telling the underlying message of this election "John... thanks, but it's time to go"

[Democratic Hawk]

Is North Sydney in the Manly orbit? I'm familiar with Manly, it was where Fiona Thompson had her original boarding house in Sons and Daughters

Dave

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

No Manly is the main centre of Warringah - Tony Abbott's seat.

The centre of North Sydney is actually North Sydney.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Sydney  - Ironically, the Howard family home is in Wollstonecraft, which is in North Sydney.

[Cubby]

State results from the last few Newspolls:

NSW: 52% ALP, 32% Lib, 5% Nats, 5% Greenies [Two Party: ALP 59%]
SA: 52% ALP, 38% Lib, 3% Greenies [Two Party: ALP 58%]
Qld: 52% ALP, 33% Lib, 7% Nats, 3% Greenies [Two Party: ALP 56%]
Vic: 45% ALP, 40% Lib, 7% Greenies, 2% Nats [Two Party: ALP 54%]
WA: 46% Lib, 43% ALP, 4% Greenies [Two Party: Lib 51%]

Why is the Coalition leading in WA? I thought Queensland was the most right-wing state. Perth and Kalgoorlie are hella cool.

How exactly was Mark Latham a thug? Was he a criminal, did he hit people? I think thats way too strong of a phrase to describe someone who should have been elected. I was more shocked by the results of the 2004 Aussie Election than the American one.

I love how interest rates are a major campaign issue. How incredibly boring. We get ridiculed for debating gay marriage and abortion, but they are more interesting.

Its outrageous that John Howard has stayed in power even this long. I blame the mandatory voting system, which should be scrapped because forcing people to vote is not democracy, its authoritarian. People should have the freedom not to vote if they don't want to.

The result is you get millions of people voting who automatically re-elect the incumbent government because their own financial situation is okay. No wonder, as a poster above said, there have only been 5 changes of government (party) since World War Two.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Those numbers are from more than 3 weeks ago. Labor just needs to hold their seats in WA, the Libs cannot afford to lose any - so that number is good for the ALP.

Australian elections are driven by one thing, and one thing only - the back pocket. Except for the 1972 'It's Time" election driven by having one party in power since 1949 - and the "please go away" elections of 1983 and 1996. This certainly has a whiff of that.

Social conservatism (with the exception of immigration) does not play well in Australia. We don't have a strong enough christian conservative movement to generate all the required fervour (thanks be). Most people are in favour of gay couples having legal equality, abortion has been a dead issue (in spite of Tony Abbott's valliant efforts) since the mid 1980s (states are moving to descriminalise it completely). Immigration is the only wedge issue that works in Australia... but it doesn't always work - Howard tried in 1987, and it backfired spectacularly.

Howard stayed in for this long, not because of compulsory voting (which I agree with - voting is as much as responsibility... if not more so ... as it is a right) but because Labor didn't give people a good enough reason. You must remember that Howard lost the popular vote in 1998, but his massive 1996 buffer saved him. In 2001, Howard shifted hard right on immigration (and fed into that nasty little undercurrent of xenophobia in Australia) and Sept 11 was very fresh... people were unnerved and they stayed with what they knew. 2004 - Latham just didn't work, he was too "brutish", no tact he was a calculated risk and it failed. He was called a thug because a couple years earlier he broke a cab driver's arm in fight. He tried to play old-school labor class-politics... it was the wrong direction. People never really felt comfortable with him, he might be a bloke you could have a beer with, but certainly not someone who you'd feel comfortable with running the country.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He tried to play old-school labor class-politics...

...while also pandering to various middle class liberal lefty interest groups. Meaning that by the end of the campaign he appealed to no one.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Exactly right.

[Cubby]

Those numbers are from more than 3 weeks ago. Labor just needs to hold their seats in WA, the Libs cannot afford to lose any - so that number is good for the ALP.

But if the Libs are leading in WA (according to that poll, things may have changed by now) won't they win more seats? I don't know a lot about Aussie politics but Queensland seems to be your Alberta and your South Carolina politically.

Most people are in favour of gay couples having legal equality

Howard apparently doesn't know that. His Administration has been very anti-gay on every issue. But since voters care mainly about economics, he gets away with it.

He was called a thug because a couple years earlier he broke a cab driver's arm in fight

So he did hit someone! Wasn't expecting that

[Verily]

Those numbers are from more than 3 weeks ago. Labor just needs to hold their seats in WA, the Libs cannot afford to lose any - so that number is good for the ALP.

But if the Libs are leading in WA (according to that poll, things may have changed by now) won't they win more seats? I don't know a lot about Aussie politics but Queensland seems to be your Alberta and your South Carolina politically.

The Coalition won WA massively in 2004 (48-35 in first preferences, basically the same as Queensland). Winning it only marginally in 2007 would be a terrible defeat for them.