2008 Primary Maps Vol. II

[Tender Branson]

So here´s my monthly update on the maps showing which candidates are leading the primary field in each state:

DEMOCRATS:

Dark Blue = Clinton
Turquoise = Edwards
Light Blue = Obama
Sky Blue = Richardson

States added since last version:

* Delaware (Clinton)
* Oregon (Clinton)
* Utah (Clinton)
* Virginia (Clinton)

..........................................

REPUBLICANS:

Red = Giuliani
Brown = McCain
Gold = Romney

States added since last version:

* Oregon (Giuliani)
* Texas (Giuliani)
* Virginia (McCain)

[JSojourner]

Harry,

This is the simple kind of regular report I can really sink my teeth into.  Thanks.  (I sincerely appreciate the detailed maps, with demographic breakdowns and so forth...but this is better for my addled mind!)

Are you surprised by anything here?

I expected Dodd to be leading in Connecticut.  And maybe Brownback or Huckabee in Missouri. Ah well, it's early.

[Padfoot]

I'm just itching for the day when Richardson starts to get some regional support in the Southwest.  Is there anyone from the four corners + Nevada that can report on how much press he is getting out there?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Please use the site colours, not the stupid media ones

[Reaganfan]

[Reaganfan]

[Mr. Morden]

Naso-

Where are you getting FL and MI polls with McCain leading?  Also, the last Iowa Dem. poll I know of is Strategic Vision, from mid-Feb., which had Edwards leading, not Clinton.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Hey everyone, Iowa is a caucus state, NOT a primary state.

Turnout is far smaller, and voting rules signficantly different.

[Reaganfan]

Naso-

Where are you getting FL and MI polls with McCain leading?  Also, the last Iowa Dem. poll I know of is Strategic Vision, from mid-Feb., which had Edwards leading, not Clinton.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/flrep8-702.shtml
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/mirep8-702.shtml
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/iadem8-702.shtml

FEB 2007 FLORIDA GOP PRIMARY:
McCain: 38%
Giuliani: 28%
Gingrich: 8%
Romney: 7%

FEB 2007 MICHIGAN GOP PRIMARY:
McCain: 35%
Giuliani: 30%
Gingrich: 9%
Romney: 8%

JAN 2007 IOWA DEM CAUCUS:
Clinton: 35%
Edwards: 18%
Obama: 14%

[Mr. Morden]

Ah, I actually hadn't seen those Florida or Michigan polls before.  However, there are more recent FL, IA, and MI polls by Strategic Vision, with Giuliani leading the GOP side in FL and MI, and Edwards leading the Dem side in IA:

http://strategicvision.biz/political/michigan_poll_071507.htm

http://strategicvision.biz/political/florida_poll_071507.htm

http://strategicvision.biz/political/iowa_poll_022207.htm

[Reaganfan]

Ah, I actually hadn't seen those Florida or Michigan polls before.  However, there are more recent FL, IA, and MI polls by Strategic Vision, with Giuliani leading the GOP side in FL and MI, and Edwards leading the Dem side in IA:

http://strategicvision.biz/political/michigan_poll_071507.htm

http://strategicvision.biz/political/florida_poll_071507.htm

http://strategicvision.biz/political/iowa_poll_022207.htm

Actually, new polls from March 9th came out and showed McCain had grown a new lead in Florida, South Carolina and Michigan.

[Mr. Morden]

New polls done by whom?  ARG?  According to the link you provided, those polls were conducted from Feb. 23-27.  And the Strategic Vision polls I linked to were done from March 9-11.

[Reaganfan]

New polls done by whom?  ARG?  According to the link you provided, those polls were conducted from Feb. 23-27.  And the Strategic Vision polls I linked to were done from March 9-11.

American Research Group Poll: Senator McCain Is The Frontrunner For The Republican Nomination In New Hampshire, South Carolina, Michigan And Florida. 3/9/07

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

[Mr. Morden]

New polls done by whom?  ARG?  According to the link you provided, those polls were conducted from Feb. 23-27.  And the Strategic Vision polls I linked to were done from March 9-11.

American Research Group Poll: Senator McCain Is The Frontrunner For The Republican Nomination In New Hampshire, South Carolina, Michigan And Florida. 3/9/07

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

I don't see those words written anywhere on ARG's front page.  They do provide links to their FL and MI polls, but again, those were taken from Feb. 23-27.  And even if they had been taken on March 9th, the Strategic Vision polls would still be (slightly) more recent (having been taken from March 9th-11th).

[Reaganfan]

New polls done by whom?  ARG?  According to the link you provided, those polls were conducted from Feb. 23-27.  And the Strategic Vision polls I linked to were done from March 9-11.

American Research Group Poll: Senator McCain Is The Frontrunner For The Republican Nomination In New Hampshire, South Carolina, Michigan And Florida. 3/9/07

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

I don't see those words written anywhere on ARG's front page.  They do provide links to their FL and MI polls, but again, those were taken from Feb. 23-27.  And even if they had been taken on March 9th, the Strategic Vision polls would still be (slightly) more recent (having been taken from March 9th-11th).

That's the caption I got in my automated McCain 2008 email

[Gustaf]

New polls done by whom?  ARG?  According to the link you provided, those polls were conducted from Feb. 23-27.  And the Strategic Vision polls I linked to were done from March 9-11.

American Research Group Poll: Senator McCain Is The Frontrunner For The Republican Nomination In New Hampshire, South Carolina, Michigan And Florida. 3/9/07

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

I don't see those words written anywhere on ARG's front page.  They do provide links to their FL and MI polls, but again, those were taken from Feb. 23-27.  And even if they had been taken on March 9th, the Strategic Vision polls would still be (slightly) more recent (having been taken from March 9th-11th).

That's the caption I got in my automated McCain 2008 email

lol

[Gabu]

New polls done by whom?  ARG?  According to the link you provided, those polls were conducted from Feb. 23-27.  And the Strategic Vision polls I linked to were done from March 9-11.

American Research Group Poll: Senator McCain Is The Frontrunner For The Republican Nomination In New Hampshire, South Carolina, Michigan And Florida. 3/9/07

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

I don't see those words written anywhere on ARG's front page.  They do provide links to their FL and MI polls, but again, those were taken from Feb. 23-27.  And even if they had been taken on March 9th, the Strategic Vision polls would still be (slightly) more recent (having been taken from March 9th-11th).

That's the caption I got in my automated McCain 2008 email

As we all know, the candidate himself is by far the most reliable resource for finding out how well he is doing.

[Mr. Morden]

Democratic primary poll map, using latest poll I can find from each state, but excluding states where the latest poll is pre-2007:



green=Richardson leads
pink=Edwards leads
red=Obama leads
dark blue=Clinton leads; is at least 15 points ahead of Obama
light blue=Clinton leads; Obama is within 14 points

There are definitely some regional trends in Clinton vs. Obama.

[Mr. Morden]

Republican primary poll map, using latest poll I can find from each state, but excluding states where the latest poll is pre-2007:

dark blue=McCain leads
light blue=Romney leads
dark red=Giuliani leads by at least 10 points over McCain
pink=Giuliani leads, but McCain is within 9 points

Again, some obvious regional trends.

[Reaganfan]

If McCain were to pull New Hampshire and South Carolina...he could get a push of momentum come Feb 5th.

[Mr. Morden]

If McCain were to pull New Hampshire and South Carolina...he could get a push of momentum come Feb 5th.

Which is why, according to rumor, the McCain campaign is hoping that Florida doesn't move its primary to earlier than Feb. 5th.  They'd presumably prefer IA, NH, and SC to be the only pre-Feb. 5th states.

[Reaganfan]

If McCain were to pull New Hampshire and South Carolina...he could get a push of momentum come Feb 5th.

Which is why, according to rumor, the McCain campaign is hoping that Florida doesn't move its primary to earlier than Feb. 5th.  They'd presumably prefer IA, NH, and SC to be the only pre-Feb. 5th states.

Why worry? As of today, McCain leads Giuliani by 10 pts in Florida.

[Mr. Morden]

Why worry? As of today, McCain leads Giuliani by 10 pts in Florida.

Please, let's not go through this again. 

[Reaganfan]

Why worry? As of today, McCain leads Giuliani by 10 pts in Florida.

Please, let's not go through this again. 

The poll is only one month old.