Suffolk County, Long Island

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

Seems to be an outlier politically in that it’s a rare example of a wealthy suburban Obama-Trump county. Possibly an extension of the same pattern on Staten Island’s south shore.

[Ragnaroni]

Seems to be an outlier politically in that it’s a rare example of a wealthy suburban Obama-Trump county. Possibly an extension of the same pattern on Staten Island’s south shore.

That is true, however, will these trends hold or are they a one time thing?

[TDAS04]

Nassau and Suffolk Counties are also notable as a wealthy suburban area where Gore outperformed Obama by so much.

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

Nassau and Suffolk Counties are also notable as a wealthy suburban area where Gore outperformed Obama by so much.

What this suggests to me is that maybe the whole area has some strong racist tendencies that cut across income and education levels.

[Suburbia]

Nassau and Suffolk Counties are also notable as a wealthy suburban area where Gore outperformed Obama by so much.

What this suggests to me is that maybe the whole area has some strong racist tendencies that cut across income and education levels.

Like Boston and the New England area? But a lot of people will ask how can Suffolk be racist when it voted for Obama twice over McCain and Romney, especially Romney who is a better fit for Suffolk than Trump?

[Fuzzy Bear]

Suffolk County votes on two (2) issues.  One is their property values.  The other is their public safety.

In 2012 Suffolk County voters were concerned about their property values which took a dive during the recession.  They blamed the Bush Administration for it.  In 2022 Suffolk County voters were concerned about public safety, particularly in NYC, where a large percentage of voters (A) work and (B) use both the Long Island Rail Road AND the subway daily.  

I was active in Suffolk County Democratic politics in 1979, which was a lot like now.  The National Administration was unpopular and perceived as incompetant, and the party, itself, was not committed to Carter's reelection until he was renominated.  (The Kennedy insurgency should have been squished like a bug, but Carter did not have enough juice to pull that off.)  The Democratic Party was down to 5 County Legislators out of 18 (they went from 10 to 6 last year).  What was the bottom line for the county that went roughly 56-44 for Ford in 1976 was that Carter had virtually NO Republican support. None.  And this is where Biden will be in Suffolk County next year; he'll have NO Republican support. Now if the Democrats replace Biden that would be another story.  But I suspect that 2024 will be bad for Suffolk County Democrats.  

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

Nassau and Suffolk Counties are also notable as a wealthy suburban area where Gore outperformed Obama by so much.

What this suggests to me is that maybe the whole area has some strong racist tendencies that cut across income and education levels.

Like Boston and the New England area? But a lot of people will ask how can Suffolk be racist when it voted for Obama twice over McCain and Romney, especially Romney who is a better fit for Suffolk than Trump?

Well yeah, that it voted for Obama suggests that it’s not racist in the same way that say a Kerry-McCain county would be though the fact that Gore outperformed Obama in 2000 suggests to me thwt there are some of those types of hardcore racists in the district, that combined with a swing from Obama to Trump I’d argue makes it hard to rule out racism as a factor. I also don’t know that culturally it would have been a better fit for Romney even though on paper you’d think that based on income and education level. I think that like Staten Island it has sort of a populist “new money” bent in contrast to ancestrally Republican suburbs in CT and New Jersey that were more Hillary-Romney types of places.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Suffolk is absolutely still winnable for Democrats and even if it swings R it will not come close to how it voted in 2022. Queens, Brooklyn, etc are where democrats will collapse

[Suburbia]

Suffolk County votes on two (2) issues.  One is their property values.  The other is their public safety.

In 2012 Suffolk County voters were concerned about their property values which took a dive during the recession.  They blamed the Bush Administration for it.  In 2022 Suffolk County voters were concerned about public safety, particularly in NYC, where a large percentage of voters (A) work and (B) use both the Long Island Rail Road AND the subway daily.  

I was active in Suffolk County Democratic politics in 1979, which was a lot like now.  The National Administration was unpopular and perceived as incompetant, and the party, itself, was not committed to Carter's reelection until he was renominated.  (The Kennedy insurgency should have been squished like a bug, but Carter did not have enough juice to pull that off.)  The Democratic Party was down to 5 County Legislators out of 18 (they went from 10 to 6 last year).  What was the bottom line for the county that went roughly 56-44 for Ford in 1976 was that Carter had virtually NO Republican support. None.  And this is where Biden will be in Suffolk County next year; he'll have NO Republican support. Now if the Democrats replace Biden that would be another story.  But I suspect that 2024 will be bad for Suffolk County Democrats.  

This. A lot of NYPD and FDNY live in Suffolk and Nassau and work in NYC. They feel they are unappreciated by NYC, etc.