2023 New Zealand general election (14 October)

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Government formation is set to take longer than it did for Labour in 2017, now a month after the election, and this means Luxon can't attend APEC on the 15th. Peters apparently rejected an offer from National on Friday-

It’s understood Peters saw an offer from National on Friday and not long after packed his bags and headed to the airport.

One source told Newsroom Peters appeared to be “pretty offended by it”.

A hilarious incident from earlier in the talks is that Peters ignored a text from David Seymour and told the media he thought it was a fake.

shaping up to be a very stable government!

[Pericles]

The recounts are complete. Helen White held Mt Albert by 18 votes, TPM's Kemp won Tamaki Makaurau by 42 votes (not 4 after all), and Rachel Boyack held Nelson by 26 votes.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

At least Forest and Bird didn’t take this long to count their votes and crown the pūteketeke as the winner. Mass election interference and ballot stuffing by Americans takes the day once again (and I’m guilty as charged, but I voted for the Kiwi).

[Pericles]

Looks like Labour will be a mess in Opposition too. I like the wealth tax policy but I really can't see either how Hipkins can stay leader or how he can go to the public and promote these taxes now when he was so adamant before the election that it was never happening "under a government I lead" (not just for the 2023-2026 term) and that it would hurt the economy.

It’s emerged that Chris Hipkins’ decision to put a wealth or capital gains tax back on the table wasn’t a slip of the tongue.

The Herald’s Thomas Coughlan has details from inside Labour’s post-election debrief, in which it’s been revealed the tax u-turn was “something of a compromise” to appease disaffected MPs.

Hipkins ruled out the tax during the election campaign as a captain’s call, overriding work that had been carried out by senior members of his party including (former Revenue Minister) David Parker. At the time, he said he was ruling it out for his tenure as leader – but last week backtracked said the rule-out had ended when Labour lost the election.

According to Coughlan, Hipkins put the possibility of tax changes back on the table as an “olive branch to the dissenters”, though it doesn’t guarantee they will become party policy in time for the 2026 election.

https://thespinoff.co.nz/live-updates/15-11-2023/why-chris-hipkins-backtracked-on-his-wealth-tax-rule-out

The Herald article also had some analysis on the politics of the wealth tax this election-

Parker, in particular, was unhappy with the way the tax was marketed, with the focus on the “tax” component and not what it would pay for: a tax-free threshold delivering a gain of $20 a week to most income earners. Taking a leaf out of the John Key-Bill English book, Parker preferred the idea of marketing the policy as a “tax switch” - taxing some people to give tax cuts to others. This had the added benefit of dampening the perennial criticism of Labour as a party of tax-and-spend.

The opposing camp feel the wealth tax camp is placing too much emphasis on the wealth tax decision, which they say would not have significantly altered the outcome of the election. The 2011 and 2014 campaigns showed the party notching up shocking losses when running on a capital gains tax. Helen Clark and Jacinda Ardern won on a policy of lifting the top income tax rate, but not on introducing significant new taxes.

Meanwhile, one of Hipkins' top MPs-Police Minister Ginny Andersen-brought another scandal on the party. While it's pretty tame by US standards, it's just stupid to insult a teenage volunteer for your own election defeat.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

What led to the massive Auckland swings? Was it the lockdowns or were there other issues?

Maybe the lockdowns hurt Labour but I think there was more going on. Auckland was hit hardest by the increase in crime over the last year. West Auckland is also pretty diverse with a large working class Asian population especially, so I guess Labour just didn't fit well with that demographic. Once we have final results in and that is analysed, if there was a West Auckland effect it could be interesting for Americans given how much hype Republican surges with minorities get.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Auckland,_New_Zealand

Hmm, Wikipedia says 'West Auckland' is still majority Pakeha, under 30% Asian, and has a higher combined Maori + Pasifika percentage (30.0%) than Asian (27.4%) per the 2018 Census. From what I can tell on Wiki the Asian population of Metro Auckland is majority Chinese + Indian, with slightly more Chinese than Indians.

National ended up with fewer seats than I would've guessed from a map of the results I saw recently. Really seemed like the Right swept Metro Auckland at least.

[2016]

I hope Chris Hipkins + former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern get deported - effective immediatedly.

[Pericles]

National ended up with fewer seats than I would've guessed from a map of the results I saw recently. Really seemed like the Right swept Metro Auckland at least.

That seems to be a map of the party vote that the two blocs of parties got. It's pretty similar but the results will vary at the electorate level, as the candidate vote has different dynamics to the party vote even if most people (especially of course major party voters) do the same two ticks. The maps here are hexmaps that adjust for the size of electorates and also show how each bloc did in each electorate.

The results that are publicised are the candidate votes-here is the map for that
 
You'd be right about Auckland, I think National tends to do well in rich suburbs across the country but gets a penalty with rich Wellingtonians because lots of them are public servants.

[CumbrianLefty]

I hope Chris Hipkins + former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern get deported - effective immediatedly.

Wibble.

[crals]

I hope Chris Hipkins + former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern get deported - effective immediatedly.

What for?

[DL]

New Zealand seems to be one of the few remaining places in the western world where the rightwing party still does reasonably well in major cities. In Canada, the US, the UK, increasingly Australia and also in France...cities are now strongholds of left of centre parties and urban conservatives are on the endangered species list

[Harlow]

New Zealand seems to be one of the few remaining places in the western world where the rightwing party still does reasonably well in major cities.

Spain and Norway are other examples.

[CumbrianLefty]

I hope Chris Hipkins + former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern get deported - effective immediatedly.

What for?

Something something "China shills" something something, I suspect.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/NewshubPolitics/status/1726069933233369219

[brucejoel99]

Ik everybody's focus is obligatorily on Argentina but incredible content is being produced in NZ rn:

https://twitter.com/TheZeitgeistNZ/status/1726449223389049148https://twitter.com/Theresoucefult1/status/1726453973610360967https://twitter.com/DennyPaoa/status/1726443661108678938https://twitter.com/StrayDogNZ/status/1726438246153105554

[Pericles]

Wonder if the bad first impression the new government (assuming it's ever formed) is making will matter.

A new Talbot Mills Research poll released to Newshub reveals 33 percent of respondents believe New Zealand First leader Winston Peters is most to blame for long the coalition negotiations are taking.

The poll, taken between November 17 and 22, shows 33 percent think Peters is most to blame, 24 percent think it's Christopher Luxon and just 4 percent think David Seymour. There are 40 percent who are unsure. The basis of this sample is 155 nationally representative respondents.

It also reveals 66 percent of people think negotiations are taking too long, which is up 6 percent from a Talbot Mills Research poll between November 10 and 16. The percentage who don't believe it's taking too long is 19 percent (down 2 percentage points), and those unsure is 16 percent (down 3 percentage points). This most recent poll's basis of the sample is 567 nationally representative respondents.

Newshub coalition negotiation updates

[Filuwaúrdjan]

All these years - decades! - later, and Peters is still causing merry hell almost for the sake of it. Inspiring stuff.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

All these years - decades! - later, and Peters is still causing merry hell almost for the sake of it. Inspiring stuff.

All these years later and his voters aren't a day younger than when he started

[mileslunn]

New Zealand seems to be one of the few remaining places in the western world where the rightwing party still does reasonably well in major cities. In Canada, the US, the UK, increasingly Australia and also in France...cities are now strongholds of left of centre parties and urban conservatives are on the endangered species list

True in general although even there only true in Auckland and there seems heavily split on income.  In fact Auckland almost looks like Vancouver did provincially back when BC Liberals were in power with right doing well in well off and heavily Asian areas while left in more working class and heavily Pacific Island areas.

But there are some exceptions here as Madrid is 3rd largest metro area in Western Europe (only London & Paris larger) yet it is very conservative.  Oslo and Helsinki right only wins because left shows bigger splits as parties to left of Social Democrats do well there while struggle in rest of country.  Italy also sort of does as very central parts of Milan vote left, but city as whole and especially metro area quite conservative.

[Flyersfan232]

Wonder if the bad first impression the new government (assuming it's ever formed) is making will matter.

A new Talbot Mills Research poll released to Newshub reveals 33 percent of respondents believe New Zealand First leader Winston Peters is most to blame for long the coalition negotiations are taking.

The poll, taken between November 17 and 22, shows 33 percent think Peters is most to blame, 24 percent think it's Christopher Luxon and just 4 percent think David Seymour. There are 40 percent who are unsure. The basis of this sample is 155 nationally representative respondents.

It also reveals 66 percent of people think negotiations are taking too long, which is up 6 percent from a Talbot Mills Research poll between November 10 and 16. The percentage who don't believe it's taking too long is 19 percent (down 2 percentage points), and those unsure is 16 percent (down 3 percentage points). This most recent poll's basis of the sample is 567 nationally representative respondents.

Newshub coalition negotiation updates

why not change it so they can be more then one deputy prime ministers it quite common in most countries

[mileslunn]

What is deal on immigration as my understanding is NZF wants lower levels while ACT wants more and National somewhat open to more?  For housing doesn't NZF support ban on foreign owned housing while ACT & National want to allow it?  And finally what about retirement age as NZF is steadfast it stays at 65 while both ACT and National want to raise it to 67 although with National not until 2044 so they can still do that whenever they form government and don't have to rely on NZF unless that doesn't happen until its under a decade away. 

[DL]

New Zealand seems to be one of the few remaining places in the western world where the rightwing party still does reasonably well in major cities. In Canada, the US, the UK, increasingly Australia and also in France...cities are now strongholds of left of centre parties and urban conservatives are on the endangered species list

True in general although even there only true in Auckland and there seems heavily split on income.  In fact Auckland almost looks like Vancouver did provincially back when BC Liberals were in power with right doing well in well off and heavily Asian areas while left in more working class and heavily Pacific Island areas.

But there are some exceptions here as Madrid is 3rd largest metro area in Western Europe (only London & Paris larger) yet it is very conservative.  Oslo and Helsinki right only wins because left shows bigger splits as parties to left of Social Democrats do well there while struggle in rest of country.  Italy also sort of does as very central parts of Milan vote left, but city as whole and especially metro area quite conservative.

I'm not so sure about Madrid being "very conservative" - I think the right narrowly controls the Madrid region which includes outlying exurbs and satellite towns - but Madrid itself has a leftwing mayor. and in the last Swedish election Stockholm swing somewhat left while the rest of the country swung right

[mileslunn]

New Zealand seems to be one of the few remaining places in the western world where the rightwing party still does reasonably well in major cities. In Canada, the US, the UK, increasingly Australia and also in France...cities are now strongholds of left of centre parties and urban conservatives are on the endangered species list

True in general although even there only true in Auckland and there seems heavily split on income.  In fact Auckland almost looks like Vancouver did provincially back when BC Liberals were in power with right doing well in well off and heavily Asian areas while left in more working class and heavily Pacific Island areas.

But there are some exceptions here as Madrid is 3rd largest metro area in Western Europe (only London & Paris larger) yet it is very conservative.  Oslo and Helsinki right only wins because left shows bigger splits as parties to left of Social Democrats do well there while struggle in rest of country.  Italy also sort of does as very central parts of Milan vote left, but city as whole and especially metro area quite conservative.

I'm not so sure about Madrid being "very conservative" - I think the right narrowly controls the Madrid region which includes outlying exurbs and satellite towns - but Madrid itself has a leftwing mayor. and in the last Swedish election Stockholm swing somewhat left while the rest of the country swung right

Its true in Europe you are seeing this, but its a bit slower than Anglosphere.  Auckland as mentioned almost seems like Vancouver provincially when BC Liberals in power (not now as has swung left) and I guess if you go way back to 80s, was similar in Vancouver & Toronto with Mulroney PCs.

UK at least in London while Labour as a whole, Tories do win the central London seats (may lose next election though) like Kensington, Cities of London & Westminster, Chelsea & Fulham.  Now true some like Battersea and Putney swung away recently despite rightward swing nationally.  And in three mentioned margins have come down in last few elections in contrast with national numbers.

I get impression when left wing alternative is a liberal socially progressive type, wealthier urban areas have easier time voting for them (Canadian Liberals, US Democrats for example) then when a social democratic party.

[Pericles]

According to Luxon, the negotiations are complete and the agreement will be signed tomorrow. We'll have to see what we've been served up.

[Pericles]

It's a three way coalition, unique in that both minors are fully in the government. Deputy PM is split across the term to soothe egoes, Winston goes first for a year and a half and then David. Winston gets Minister of Foreign Affairs which he was actually good at, while David Seymour shows how much he hates government waste by (lol) creating a new Minister of Regulation position for himself. In total it's 14 National ministers, and 3 each for ACT and NZ First. Nicola Willis takes Finance as expected, though she'll be on a tight schedule for her promised Christmas mini budget.

Policy details still to come though a big hole is torn in National's tax promises because Winston removed their foreign home buyers tax (keeping the ban on foreign home purchases). National has let ACT move forward legislation on Treaty principles but vetoed a referendum, and Judith Collins is Attorney General (insanely she is the moderate choice since Winston wanted to take the position and interfere with the judiciary).

The Chris Hipkins premiership and Sixth Labour Government is finally over.

[DL]

UK at least in London while Labour as a whole, Tories do win the central London seats (may lose next election though) like Kensington, Cities of London & Westminster, Chelsea & Fulham.  Now true some like Battersea and Putney swung away recently despite rightward swing nationally.  And in three mentioned margins have come down in last few elections in contrast with national numbers.

I get impression when left wing alternative is a liberal socially progressive type, wealthier urban areas have easier time voting for them (Canadian Liberals, US Democrats for example) then when a social democratic party.

I also think wealthier urban areas turn left when the traditional right of centre party morphs into a rabidly populist, xenophobic anti-intellectual party. Notice how in the recent election in Alberta the strongest swings from UPC to NDP were in the wealthiest ridings in Calgary. Look at how in Manitoba where the PCs tried to play the race card they got annihilated in Winnipeg and the premier came within 200 votes of losing the richest seat in the city that was previously considered a rock solid safe Tory seat.

I wonder when and if there will be a similar pattern in New Zealand?